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UFC 268 is scheduled for Saturday, November 6th at Madison Square Garden in New York City. This is the World’s Most Famous Arena so it’s fitting that we have a deep fight card with a big-time main event. The main event is the rematch for the UFC Welterweight Championship between Champ Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. The first fight between these two fighters was a 5 round brawl that saw 318 strikes land and both fighters bloodied.
The Champ
Kamaru Usman aka The Nigerian Nightmare is a former Division 2 wrestler out of the University of Nebraska- Kearney. His coach is Trevor Whitman who will also be in the corner of Rose Narajunas and Justin Gaethje at UFC 268. Kamaru been known as a decision machine for much of his UFC career. He has finished 3 of his last 4 fights and currently holds an MMA record of 19-1. He is undefeated in the UFC. His striking has improved under the tutelage of Trevor Whitman and he carries his power into the later rounds of his fights. He’s 34 years old and this will be his 5th title defense of the UFC Welterweight Belt.
The Challenger
Colby Chaos Covington is a former Division 1 wrestler out of Oregon State University. He trains out of the gym MMA Masters in Miami, Florida. Colby has personified the heel as he’s moved up the ranks. He was a mainstay at the gym American Top Team with Dan Lambert. He had public spats with some of the gym’s stars, namely Dustin Poirer and his former best friend Jorge Masvidal. He’s been to the White House during Donald Trump’s presidency and Trump family members will be in attendance at UFC 268.
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The Stats
- Kamaru Usman holds a one-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage.
- Usman averages 4.63 strikes landed per minute with a 54% accuracy while Covington averages 4.12 strikes landed per minute with 38% accuracy
- Covington averages 4.61 takedowns per 15 minutes
- Usman has 100% takedown defense
- In their 1st fight, Usman landed 175 strikes and 2 knockdowns while Covington landed 143 strikes
Usman-Covington scorecard #UFC245 Sal D'Amato had it 3-1, Covington. Another 2-2. Another 3-1, Kamaru pic.twitter.com/uSvEABavGD
— Heidi Fang (@HeidiFang) December 15, 2019
The 1st Fight - Usman vs Covington I
The pre-fight talk between Usman vs Covington was surrounded by bad blood. It was a highly anticipated fight between two outstanding MMA wrestlers. Ironically the fight played out on the feet and no takedowns were attempted.
Colby Covington is known for pushing the pace of his fights and exhausting his opponent. At the 3 minute mark of round 1, Covington unloaded on a 6 punch combo that hurt Usman and Usman switched to a southpaw stance for a minute. It appeared that Usman had injured his left hand but that didn’t seem to affect the fight moving forward. This round was intense. Usman’s right hand connected multiple times and his body shots started to wear at Colby later in the round.
Round 2 had a similar pace with a bit of controversy around a groin kick. Covington connected on a stabbing left kick to the lower abdomen that grazed Usman’s cup and prompted a referee timeout. It gave Usman a much-needed break and slowed Covington’s momentum.
Round 3 was clearly to Usman. He hurt Colby with a straight right hand and snapped his head back. It was the type of punch that can knock a fighter to the ground if not turn his lights out. After round 3 Colby told his corner he thought he had a broken jaw.
The fight was tied on the judge’s scorecards entering round 5. Usman had enough in the tank to stalk Colby until he was able to connect with another straight right hand that knocked him down. Usman’s power carried into round 5 and he was able to knock Colby down again. Usman followed up with ground and pound on the second knockdown and finished the fight.
Colby Covington has only ever been out-landed by double-digit significant strikes in one of his 13 UFC fights:
— MMA By The Numbers (@NumbersMMA) November 1, 2021
When Kamaru Usman out-landed him 175 to 143#UFC268
The Prediction
Usman proved his power will carry into round 5 and he has the gas tank. He has defended his belt three times and his striking is improving. He’s also shown to be very durable. Gilbert Burns connected with strikes early in his fight with Usman and he was able to withstand being hurt. His recovery was impressive. Usman shows a strong, stiff jab. His striking is also highlighted by a straight right hand and his overhand right that can finish a fight. He attacked the body with a right front kick and hand strikes.
I expect Colby Covington to push the pace more in this second fight and attempt to mix in some takedowns. He knows he didn’t empty Usman’s gas tank in the 1st fight and I don’t see a path to victory for Colby that doesn’t include pushing the pace harder this time.
My prediction for this fight is Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO in round 3.
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