Last week was not supposed to be kind to longshots. The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks reward the total package of horsepower, team performance, and driver ability. But with NASCAR’s current parity, there were several dark horses among the top 10 when the checkers waved over the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Last week, Matt DiBenedetto topped our list of dark horse contenders to finish among the top 10. Listed at +150 for that result, he more than filled the need with a fourth-place finish. That was his third consecutive result in the single digits and his seventh straight top-15.
Tyler Reddick in seventh, Chris Buescher in eighth, and Austin Dillon in 10th also had a positive return in regard to their top-10 odds. Darlington is a driver’s track and three of those same drivers earned a top-10 in one of last year’s three races on the Track Too Tough to Tame.
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Reddick was seventh in the Real Heroes 400, which marked the return to action from the COVID-19 break. Three days later, DiBenedetto finished ninth in the Toyota 500k, and Dillon was 10th in the Southern 500 behind Kevin Harvick. Chris Buescher did not perform well last year, but he does have a pair of top-15s from 2018 and 2019.
This week all four of those drivers have plus odds to finish among the top 10 with DiBenedetto listed at +135 at PointsBet Sportsbook, Reddick at +135, Dillon at +150, and Buescher at +275. The drivers of the No. 21 and 3 cars are coming off three-race, top-10 streaks and both warrant a bet this week.
DiBenedetto is of particular interest because of how well the team has run over the past three weeks. If you want to squeeze out another bet, he is listed at +1000 to score a top-three. It seems like a win is imminent for the Wood Brothers and if it comes this week, his outright odds to win are +5000.
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This week, the oddsmakers seem to have it right.
In Cup racing, there is no such thing as a sure thing, but their favorite, Kyle Larson, at +420 is hungry, motivated and our favorite as well. Denny Hamlin at +540 does not show enough Return on Investment to make him a solid pick this week, but once you get below the top two, there are attractive enough odds to supplement the Larson pick if that fits your betting strategy.
Notably: Harvick fits this category with a +725. The best thing about that number is it drags his top-three odds to +200, which means there is a bet to be placed there as well. Harvick won two of the three Darlington races last year and finished third in the other.
If you like the momentum gained by Kyle Busch with last week’s Kansas win, he can be had with +230 odds for a top-three and at +800 for the outright win. He struggled in the Real Heroes 400 without practice, but found his rhythm the following Wednesday night and finished second.
Earlier this week in a conversation with NBC analyst Steve Letarte, we disagreed on Erik Jones. Letarte faded him outright win because this has become a horsepower track to a greater degree than we’ve seen previously. He did not change our minds, however, and with a perfect streak of Darlington top-10s – albeit when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing – his odds of +225 to finish that well again make him a good value.
Jones is definitely a longshot, but with 100/1 odds – it’s worth digging a little deeper in couch cushions for a modest bet for the outright win.
Another interesting dark horse this week is Ross Chastain. This team finished in the top 10 last year with Matt Kenseth behind the wheel. Excluding the Bristol Dirt Track, he has finished between 14th and 17th in his last five paved races. If he can improve slightly, he is worth +550 for a top-10.
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BUSCHY MCBUSCH 400 DARK HORSES
POWER RANKINGS AFTER KANSAS 1
BATTLING UP FRONT, LAPS IN THE TOP 15
