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Line Moves
It was another big week for line moves after practice and qualification was in the books for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway with all but one of the top 14 drivers experiencing line movements. Six drivers had points subtracted from their total with seven going the other direction, which is an indication that the PointsBet Sportsbook traders mostly reshuffled the decks.
Unsurprisingly, Ryan Blaney (+800) was the big mover with 400 points being subtracted from his line after winning the pole. Traders can be forgiven for not completely valuing his potential before the weekend because Blaney has only one top-10 and no top-fives in 11 Richmond starts and an average finish well outside the top 20. This is another indicator that the NextGen car is leveling the playing field, but it should also be noted that Blaney has run well enough to win most of the first six races this year.
It’s difficult to adjust perception for the defending champion. It took sportsbook traders a long time in 2021 to find a more reasonable line for Chase Elliott and the same thing is happening to Kyle Larson (+850). Complicating the matter is that Larson’s poor results this year have been largely attributable to circumstances out of his control, so perspective is what one makes of it. He had 50 points added to his total, suggestive that not enough money was flowing his direction.
Our favorite to start the week, Martin Truex, Jr. (+900) would also appear to have failed to gain traction with bettors, despite having decent results in both practice (eighth) and qualification (sixth). While these numbers are not enough to have shaved anything off his line, they are not so far out of kilter as to change our estimation of his chances. Truex will start the race with good track position and it will be surprising if he is not in the mix to win the first stage and stay in contention all afternoon.
Kyle Busch (+900) had 100 points taken off his line. The most likely reason is that he paced practice with the fastest lap and qualified third. The biggest concern surrounding Busch is that his recent Richmond results have not been up to his usual standard. He’s finished in the top 10 in his last three start there, but in the previous four races he had two wins and a second-place finish.
Elliott (+900) continues to be one of the favorites despite a few red flags this season. The team is making too many mistakes on the final pit stop and he is not very strong on restarts. Elliott has not yet won at Richmond, but he has had some strong runs with top-fives in four of his last seven attempts. The other three were in the low teens, so bettors really don’t quite know what they are going to get until the final segment of the race.
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With a second-place qualification effort, William Byron (+900) joins Busch and Elliott in the third spot this week. It seems the sportsbook traders are putting a lot more emphasis on track position since he moved in a strength-based direction while Truex had points added to his line. Their algorithm is telling them something that logic contradicts. Richmond is not a difficult track on which to pass so track position is not as important as on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track. Still, Byron is capable of busting off a strong run on any course type and starting up front is not going to hurt anything.
The remaining driver who landed in the top 10 and had points shaved is Christopher Bell (+1300) with a 200-point deduction. Bell was strong in practice with the fourth fastest speed, but he didn’t quite back that up in time trials and rolls off the grid ninth. Joe Gibbs Racing is solid at Richmond and if they are going to turn their season around this is a good place to do so. Bell was not exactly flying under the radar earlier this week, but he has overshadowed by the other Gibbs’ guys. That was probably unfair since he swept the top five at Richmond last year.
Outside the top 10, Erik Jones (+3000) experienced a major line change. There have been races so far this year that would suggest he could join the ranks of Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Daniel Suarez as a likely dark horse winner, but he has experienced some bad luck at inopportune times. He’s been on our radar screen, but near the edge of the map. Practicing sixth and qualifying fifth is a major indication of his potential. With 30/1 odds, he still represents a solid payday and is worth a modest bet with your mad money.
And then there is Chris Buescher (+9000) who caught everyone by surprise in practice. He turned heads with the second-fastest lap as a swarm of killer “Bs” assaulted the top of the chart. (Busch was fastest, and Blaney, Bell, and Briscoe lined up behind him.) We understand the need for the traders to hedge their bets, but since Buescher qualified only 18th, it’s difficult to recommend any bet unless you found some money in the couch cushions.
Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | Richmond 2 | Richmond 2 |
1. | 800 | 1200 | -400 | 2500 | 1400 | |
2. | 850 | 800 | 50 | 725 | 775 | |
3. | 900 | 850 | 50 | 480 | 425 | |
3. | 900 | 1000 | -100 | 750 | 1000 | |
3. | 900 | 800 | 100 | 1100 | 800 | |
3. | 900 | 1100 | -200 | 1800 | 2200 | |
7. | 1100 | 1100 | 0 | 850 | 850 | |
8. | 1200 | 1000 | 200 | 500 | 600 | |
9. | 1300 | 1200 | 100 | 6600 | 25000 | |
9. | 1300 | 1500 | -200 | 1800 | 2500 | |
| ||||||
11. | 1400 | 1800 | -400 | 1300 | 1100 | |
12. | 1600 | 1400 | 200 | 6600 | 8000 | |
12. | 1600 | 2000 | -400 | 30000 | 25000 | |
14. | 1800 | 1600 | 200 | 2000 | 3300 | |
15. | 3000 | 3000 | 0 | 3500 | 8000 | |
15. | 3000 | 5000 | -2000 | 30000 | 20000 | |
17. | 3500 | 3000 | 500 | 25000 | 20000 | |
18. | 5000 | 4000 | 1000 | 4000 | 4000 | |
18. | 5000 | 5000 | 0 | 7000 | 4000 | |
18. | 5000 | 3500 | 1500 |
| 25000 | |
21. | 6600 | 5000 | 1600 | 1000 | 725 | |
22. | 7000 | 9000 | -2000 |
|
| |
23. | 8000 | 10000 | -2000 | 20000 | 15000 | |
24. | 9000 | 20000 | -11000 | 25000 | 25000 | |
25. | 20000 | 15000 | 5000 | 25000 | 15000 | |
25. | 20000 | 20000 | 0 | 25000 | 9000 | |
27. | 25000 | 25000 | 0 |
|
| |
27. | 25000 | 20000 | 5000 | 50000 | 50000 | |
29. | 40000 | 40000 | 0 | 50000 | 30000 | |
29. | 40000 | 35000 | 5000 |
|
| |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 |
| |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
31. | 50000 | 30000 | 20000 | 50000 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 40000 | 10000 |
|
| |
31. | 50000 | 50000 |
|
| 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 |
| 50000 | 50000 |
