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DeMar DeRozan O/U 24.5 Points vs. Raptors
This is another revenge angle based on history and that this guy is an MVP candidate.
DeMar DeRozan will take on his former Toronto Raptors squad that sent him to San Antonio in exchange for Kawhi Leonard and an NBA title.
DeRozan is playing at an MVP caliber level and I expect that to continue against Toronto, with some extra rest on top.
That’s right. Chicago beat Oklahoma City without DeRozan in the previous game. DeRozan took the night off as Zach LaVine and Javonte Green returned to the lineup.
DeRozan will be a full-go for this meeting against a Raptors team that played last night.
When DeRozan has met the Raptors, he scored at least 21 points five out of seven games (71.4%) and 26 points in his previous meeting versus Toronto (as a Bull), per statmuse.
DeRozan has played at least 33 minutes in every game versus Toronto. On the season, DeRozan averages 27.8 points per game at 33 or more minutes (33 games) and 29.3 points per game at 36-plus minutes (15 games).
Before his night off, DeRozan was coming off performances of 41, 35 and 30 points against the Magic, Bucks and Cavaliers.
In January, DeRozan averages 25.1 points per game on 49.1% from the field and 8.4 free-throw attempts per game.
The Raptors rank bottom-10 over the past month with 22.5 free-throw attempts permitted to opponents and 18th in field goal percentage (46.3%).
While Toronto is an above-average defense in many ways, fatigue will be a factor, along with a younger lineup of defenders. DeRozan will need his freebies and a quick start and/or strong fourth quarter, which I expect from the veteran.
LaMelo Ball and Bradley Beal scored 25 points on Toronto in the past week, and Luka Doncic went for 41 on them after Tyler Herro scored 23 points a few nights before.
Toronto’s Scottie Barnes and Fred VanVleet are questionable for this matchup and I would assume they both play.
I would play DeRozan up to 27.5 points for 1 unit as I expected 26.5 or 27.5.
I think DeRozan is going to have a big night in Chicago versus his former team. If LaVine, Nikola Vucevic or anyone else is limited or out for Chicago, I will likely come back and add to this prop.
Since this prop is not out on sports books yet, keep this on your radar and sprinkle some fun money on DeRozan first basket at +500 odds.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 24.5 Points (2u), DeRozan First Basket +500 (lunch money)
Ja Morant O/U 29.5 Points vs. Spurs
My pick for Most Improved Player is on fire right now.
Ja Morant has scored 35, 38 and 33 points in his past three games against the Mavericks, Nuggets and Bucks.
He has double-doubled in two of those three games and attempted at least 26 field goal attempts and five free throws in each game -- yea, you read that right.
Morant is taking control right now. Over the last three games, Morant has the fourth-highest usage rating in the NBA (35.5%), up from his eighth-place January average (32.2%).
Morant has scored 25 or more points in three of his last five meetings versus the Spurs, per statmuse, including 30 in the previous matchup, which came with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson in the lineup, but no Brooks.
Desmond Bane returns from a three-game absence. He was out due to health and safety protocols tonight, but could be limited and/or rusty. Morant scored 33, 38 and 35 points without Bane.
There is no Dillon Brooks for Memphis, which points to Morant’s scoring success. Since Brooks’ injury, Morant has scored 16, 29, 16, 19, 25, 33, 38 and 35 points in that order, so clearly, he is heating up.
While I do expect Bane to come back and contribute in some form immediately, I do not expect Morant to slow down in the scoring department. He games of 25 and 29 with Bane in the lineup and dropped 30 on the Spurs last time with Bane.
Brandon Clarke is questionable for Memphis, plus Tyus Jones, Kyle Anderson and
Morant has a favorable matchup overall. The Spurs allow seventh-most points per game to point guards (24.30) and the sixth-most made three-pointers (3.08).
Like DeRozan, his opponent will be on the second night of back-to-back, which is beneficial for Morant’s Over. Last night, San Antonio won 134-104 and didn’t play their starters in the fourth quarter, so we can expect this matchup to be competitive.
A couple of stars have lit up the Spurs over the last 10 days, including James Harden (38 points), Kyrie Irving (24 points) and Devin Booker (48 points).
Our model predicts Morant to play 34 minutes tonight and when he eclipses that total, the Grizzlies star is 9-5 (64%) to the Over 29.5 points and 6-2 (75%) on the road, per NBC’s Player Prop Model.
Morant has scored 30 points in 13 out of 36 games this season (36.1%) and seven of the previous 14 (50%).
In the second half, Morant averages 13.6 points per game in the second half and that number has jumped to 17.3 over the past three games. He is in attack and win now mode.
Back Morant Over 29.5 points and take the alternative of 30-plus points, whichever has better odds.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 29.5 Points (1u)
Trae Young O/U 29.5 Points vs. Kings
Let’s finish this thing off with another 30-plus guy that is cooking lately.
Trae Young is coming off 30, 28, 37, 30 and 29 point performances in his last five games.
The most interesting number, though, is that his assists have dropped drastically, with 11 total in his past two games and barely averages 15 potential assists per game over the previous five.
He seems focused on scoring and getting wins, something the Hawks and Young are doing well lately. Atlanta has won four straight.
Sacramento is also on the second night of a back-to-back, losing 128-75 to Boston, so we will not expect that to happen here. The Kings should keep this closer and Young should come out hot and close this game the same way.
De’Aaron Fox is also questionable and his presence would keep this game closer and help Young get to the basket more often.
In Young’s five career meetings versus the Kings, he scored 14, 23, 30, 28 and 29 points, per statmuse. Young also recorded at least eight assists in all five games.
Sacramento ranks last in the NBA against point guards with 25.15 points per game and 28th to shooting guards (23.32), so no matter how you chop it up, Young has a great matchup to score 30-plus.
The Kings’ defense is slacking over the past five games. They allow an NBA-worst 41.3% from three, 41.2 three-point attempts, 125.2 points per game and rank 27th in opponent field goal percentage (49.1%).
Young and the Hawks should have no problem finding the bottom of the net. Sacramento ranks bottom 10 in opponent points in the paint over the past five games (50.8, T-21st) and third-worst in opponent second-chance points (16.8).
With Clint Capela and John Collins, Young could have plenty of second-chance points off kick-out opportunities. Bogdan Bogdanovic remains out and De’Andre Hunter is a game time call for Atlanta.
Young also averages 15.3 points per game in the second-half of games during January, ranking third. Over the last three games, Young averages 19.3 second half points and 18.8 in the past five, trailing only Joel Embiid (22.2).
I backed Young Over 29.5 points and would play him there or at the alternative 30-plus points.
Pick: Trae Young Over 29.5 Points (1u)
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