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Justin Jefferson O/U 73.5 Receiving Yards vs. Ravens
Let’s go back to the well on Vikings’ star wideout Justin Jefferson.
Our player model projects Jefferson to HAVE A DAY, not quite like Ja’Marr Chase‘s 201 yards and a touchdown, but 8.5 receptions for 113.8 yards isn’t too shabby. He is coming off a 21-yard performance, so this is a perfect buy-low spot on JJ.
This Ravens’ secondary has shown an inability to cover big-play receivers.
Chase was the latest example, while Tee Higgins (62 yards) and Michael Pittman (89 yards) did limited damage as the second-leading receivers over the past three weeks, plus Darren Waller (105 yards) and Travis Kelce (109 yards) in Weeks 1 and 2, if we want to include them as tight end hybrids.
Minnesota ranks fourth in the NFL with 39.6 pass plays per game, and Jefferson ranks top 10 among plenty of categories such as deep targets (5th), air yards share (10th) and yards after catch (10th), per PlayerProfiler.
Jefferson will face Marlon Humphrey primarily, who allowed 63 or more yards in three out of seven games this season, including 227 yards to the Bengals. Back Jefferson to have a big day.
I played this at 73.5 and would play out to 79.5 yards for 1 unit.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)
Jared Cook O/U 27.5 Receiving Yards vs. Eagles
While Jared Cook‘s snaps are down the past two games, the Chargers were playing primary three and four-receiver sets as they were in comeback mode.
This matchup with Philly presents a better game script and opportunity for Cook to be more involved with Justin Herbert.
NBC’s player prop model predicts 39.5 receiving yards on 3.2 receptions against the Eagles, hitting his Over 27.5 yards prop. Cook has recorded at least 25 receiving yards in every game this season and 27 or more in five of seven.
This is a discount line considering he had his two lowest receiving yardage games at 25 yards apiece the last two weeks.
T.J. Hockenson had 10 receptions for 89 yards last week versus the Eagles, Foster Moreau posted six receptions for 60 yards, and O.J. Howard totaled six catches for 49 yards -- all three within the last three weeks.
The list gets worse with guys like Ian Thomas (40 yards) and Dalton Schultz (80 yards), but I will not keep you too long.
Expect Cook to get at least 30 yards. Play it up to 34.5 for 1 unit. I got 27.5 at -114 odds.
Pick: Jared Cook Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)
CHARGERS (-1) AT EAGLES: O/U 49.5
Over the last two weeks, the Chargers were smacked by the Ravens 34-6 and upset by the Patriots at home, 27-24.
So here we are on a two-game losing streak. What do we need to know?
Well, the Chargers are 4-2 ATS, with Justin Herbert following a 2-game losing streak and 2-1 ATS as the favorite, per NBC’s Edge Finder. They are 3-3 on the ML in those games and 3-0 on the ML as the favorite, losing all three as the dog.
What can make someone nervous is the Chargers traveling three time zones. Justin Herbert is 0-4 on the ML and 1-3 ATS when he travels three time zones, but considering whom he has played -- come on.
The QBs that Herbert lost to are Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in that order -- do Jalen Hurts and the Eagles make that list and push Herbert 0-5 on the ML?
In all of those games, Herbert was the underdog -- Herbert is the favorite here. That is telling me the tide is turning, and I do not feel a trap spot.
The Eagles beat the Lions 44-6 and their two other wins are against Falcons and Panthers -- three teams with .500 or losing records combined for seven wins and 16 losses this season
So what does that tell me? The Eagles beat bad teams.
In Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 2-4 on the ML versus winning teams. He beat the Saints in the first-ever start and the Panthers this year when they had a winning record -- they have a losing record now.
Take the Chargers to end their losing streak and kick Herbert’s West to East Coast troubles. The Eagles are overrated if people are even rating them.
I would play the Chargers out to -3 as that is a fair price, but I grabbed the -1 at -110 odds.
Pick: Chargers -1 (1.5u)
VIKINGS AT RAVENS (-6): O/U 49.5
Minnesota is on the road after an abysmal loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Every week becomes a must-win situation for the 3-4 Vikings as Aaron Rodgers is out with COVID for the division rival Packers. Expect Minnesota to go for the upset and play with more urgency than they already have.
Rather than play the +6, because Minnesota NEVER covers for me, I looked at the total and it seemed like a no-brainer.
The Over has hit in five straight road games for the Vikings and seven of the last 10. The average score in their last 10 road games is 56.8 combined points with the Vikings averaging 27.9 points per game, per NBC’s Edge Finder (shown below).
Baltimore at home, is 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games as well, and averages 29.4 points per game in that span. As a home favorite, the Ravens are 5-2 to the Over in the past seven.
The NBC Game Prediction model loves the Over in this matchup as one of three games to light up with excellent value to the Over.
I gave out the Over 49.5 on our Blitzing the Board show -- I would play the Over up to 50.5 points.
Pick: Over 49.5 (1u)
49ERS (-1) AT CARDINALS: O/U 45
My play from Bet The Edge Episode 39 on Friday.
The 49ers are getting a banged up Cardinals team that likely is starting the downfall to their season. I mentioned on the podcast how Arizona reminds me of Pittsburgh in a lot of ways.
The Cardinals get all of the Steelers leftover players, coaches and fans, so whenever you copy the recipe, the formula or answer you get do not change.
Remember the Steelers last season? They were on fire to start the year, but when they started losing, the L’s came in bunches week after week. The Cardinals are coming to that point. With Kyler Murray injured, J.J. Watt out and DeAndre Hopkins never being 100-percent this season -- it’s impressive the Cardinals have made it to 7-1.
However, the best parts of their season are behind them and I expect the Cardinals to take a few losses over the next few weeks before they regroup.
The 49ers are 1-5 on the ML in the last six meetings with the Cardinals, but this is the perfect get right spot. However, when the 49ers are the home favorite against the Cardinals, they are 7-2 on the ML in the last nine.
Back the 49ers to get the home victory as I do not expect Murray to suit up for Arizona and if he does, he will be less than 100-percent.
I grabbed SF at -131 odds on the ML and would play out to -140 before playing the spread.
Pick: 49ers ML (1u)
TITANS AT RAMS (-7): O/U 52.5
I will run it back on the Rams First Half as I think it is playable to -6 and can move to -7 with it being on Sunday Night Football.
The Rams are catching the Titans at a very vulnerable time without their best player (Derrick Henry) and Jalen Ramsey will guard AJ Brown. They are neutralizing a lot of the Titans’ offense right there, even if Julio Jones is “healthy.”
We could be looking at a lot of Ryan Tannehill‘s play-action and RPOs to get him moving, and out of the pocket, I am not sure it will be enough versus the Rams.
Aaron Donald and company will be ready to come out fast again, this time at home and against a Henry-less Titans team, I expect a touchdown-plus lead after the first 30 minutes.
Tennessee will likely have a second-half comeback in this one and take some time to adjust to life without Henry. Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols, surprisingly, are not the answer.
The Titans have yet to have a bye week and their injury report on defense still looks putrid, just something worth noting when going up against the potential NFL MVP.
I have no problems backing Matthew Stafford for four quarters of play usually, but this is another good spot to back him for the first two quarters.
Pick: Rams 1H -5 (1u)
BEARS AT STEELERS (-6.5): O/U 40
Justin Fields versus Ben Roethlisberger on Monday Night Football -- let’s go!
In Mike Tomlin‘s career, the Steelers are 17-4 on the ML (81%) when playing on Monday Night Football, but when it comes to covering the spread, well, they are only 11-10 ATS (52%).
That is not good and I am a Steelers fan. Pittsburgh has repeatedly failed to prepare for teams with losing records or teams that are not as talented as the Chicago Bears fit that mold.
The last five quarterbacks the Steelers have faced on Monday Night Football were:
Ryan Finley
Andy Dalton
Alex Smith
Daniel Jones
Ryan Fitzpatrick
You would think the Steelers would be 5-0, right? Nope, 3-2 on the ML and 2-3 ATS. Two of the outright wins were courtesy of backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.
The Bears are live to win this outright as Steelers have lost their last two MNF games with Big Ben. Chicago is 9-6 on the ML in the past 15 MNF games (60%) and 2-2 with Matt Nagy.
If Nagy is not calling the plays, Justin Fields and company can keep it close with the Bears defense being a suitable unit to put pressure on Roethlisberger and this atrocious offensive line.
Pittsburgh is 12-12-1 ATS in the last 25 games against teams with losing records and 24-24-2 ATS in the past 50 with Mike Tomlin as the head coach. Those are not numbers worth backing.
I bought the half-point for the +7 (-120), but we probably won’t need it.
Pick: Bears +7 (1u)
Watch Bet The Edge: Blitzing the Board with myself, Drew Dinsick, Corey Parson and Jay Croucher break down one-hour of NFL Week 9 betting advice, our picks and more HERE.
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