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Najee Harris UNDER 1350.5 TOTAL YDS (-115)
The Steelers are in a slight renovation, and for the first time since 2008 (Rashard Mendenhall), they selected a running back in the first round.
Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris 24th overall after finishing as the leading career rusher at Alabama (3,843 yards). Harris combined for 30 total touchdowns last season, 26 on the ground and four receiving scores on 43 receptions and 425 yards.
PointsBet’s line on Harris’ totals is much different from other outlets, with his rushing total set at 900.5 and rushing and receiving yards at 1350.5.
Harris is a bulldozer at 6-foot-1 and 232 pounds. Like past Steelers’ running backs, Le’Veon Bell and James Conner, for example, they have had rushing and receiving ability.
Bell was in his prime with Pittsburgh and was able to flex out wide, something Harris is not expected to do. Comparing Harris to Bell and Conner, this is what the Steelers’ starting backs have done the past four seasons.
Conner 2020: 13 games, 169 RUSH, 721 Yards, 6 TDs, 35 REC, 215 Yards
Conner 2019: 10 games, 116 RUSH, 464 Yards, 6 TDs, 34 REC, 251 Yards, 3 TDs
Conner 2018: 13 games, 215 RUSH, 973 Yards, 12 TDs, 55 REC, 497 Yards, 1 TD
Bell 2017: 15 games, 321 RUSH, 1,291 Yards, 9 TDs, 85 REC, 655 Yards, 2 TDs
In 2017, Conner was a rookie and Bell the primary back. In 2018, Conner touched the rock 270 total times and finished with 1,470 total yards in 13 games. Bell had 406 total touches and, of course, went well Over 1350.5.
Over the next two seasons, Conner did not combine for 1,000 total yards and missed three and six games in each season. Despite the Under hitting the last two seasons on this prop for a Pittsburgh back -- there is a significant change in the offense.
The offensive line has two players returning with five combined starts from last year’s. The offensive line will be completely remodeled and give the 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger some issues and Harris.
This should be, on paper at least, the worst offensive line in the past decade for the Steelers. Roethlisberger had the quickest time to throw last season at 2.3 seconds per pass because of the lack of protection and run game.
Despite the offensive line makeover and more than talented offensive weapons in the passing game -- Harris’ odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year dropped from +1600 TO +1000 per NBC’s future model.
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The Steelers also drafted Anthony McFarland last season in the fourth round out of Maryland. He finished with 33 rushes for 133 yards last season and caught six passes for 54 yards. In addition to McFarland, third-year pro Benny Snell is expected to get second-team reps.
Snell has posted back-to-back 100-plus rushing attempt seasons for 794 yards and six touchdowns in two years. Snell is not a receiving threat, so Harris will be the primary third and long back, but Snell could contribute on the ground once again.
Snell also played 16 games last season, something Bell and Conner could not do with Pittsburgh. Harris played 26 games in his past two seasons at Alabama and should split a carry or two here and there with Snell and, possibly, McFarland.
Not to beat the drum too much, with the offensive line, the Steelers will likely struggle to establish the ground game or extended pocket protection for an immobile quarterback.
Pick: Najee Harris Under 1350.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (1u)
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