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Five matches are set to take place on Sunday in the English Premier League, with the headliner occurring at Stamford Bridge in London between Chelsea Football Club and Manchester United.
Another marquee fixture on tap is the top-four clash between Manchester City and West Ham taking place at the Etihad.
Below you will find two overlays from Sunday’s matches – including one from the Man City v. West Ham contest – to consider at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
BURNLEY v. TOTTENHAM – DOUBLE CHANCE – BURNLEY OR DRAW (Currently -125 at PointsBet)
Antonio Conte may very well be the elixir Tottenham has needed to reverse their form, but a single 2-1 victory last weekend against Leeds is not enough to warrant Spurs being such prohibitive favorites on the road against a decent Burnley side.
The Clarets have played solid football in the last month, earning points in all four of their Premier League contests, including a 3-1 victory over Brentford at Turf Moor and a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea.
One of the most encouraging aspects of Burnley’s recent run has been their ability to put balls in the back of the net.
Dating back to the October 23 match against Southampton, Burnley have scored a total of nine goals in four EPL contests, illustrating just how well they are playing.
Led by Maxwel Cornet, the Clarets have a solid chance to secure points at home on Sunday against a Tottenham squad that still has plenty of issues to iron out – specifically in the backfield.
Based on my projections, Burnley either defeats Tottenham or plays to a draw at Turf Moor 62.4% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -166.
This indicates that their current odds to win or draw of -125 (implied probability of 55.6%) represent a solid overlay.
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MANCHESTER CITY v. WEST HAM – DOUBLE CHANCE – WEST HAM OR DRAW (Currently +275 at PointsBet)
It may not be the wisest choice to bet against Pep Guardiola’s side, however the odds discrepancy between Manchester City and West Ham seems to be a bit overzealous.
While City have only yielded two goals at home this year, they have lost a Premier League contest (2-0 to Crystal Palace when playing with ten men the second half), suggesting it is possible for a team like West Ham to step up to the plate and secure points on the road.
Following a disappointing performance last weekend against Wolves where they were thoroughly dominated, David Moyes’ side has an opportunity to prove they truly belong among the elite clubs in England with a strong effort against Manchester City on Sunday.
Considering the style Man City plays, it will be paramount that Lukasz Fabianski and West Ham’s defensive unit deliver the best effort of their season, as it seems unlikely the Hammers will be able to outpace the home side.
While not the likeliest occurrence, my projections suggest West Ham either defeats Manchester City or plays to a draw 31.9% of the time.
This percentage translates to odds of +213, making their current odds of +275 (implied probability of 26.7%) enticing.
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