A contest of epic proportions is on tap Sunday in the English Premier League, as Liverpool get set to host the two-time defending league champions, Manchester City.
For all intents and purposes, this is a must-win game for Jurgen Klopp‘s squad, as they currently sit in the bottom-half of the Premier League table.
A loss at Anfield on Sunday wouldn’t just wipe them out of the title race (which may already be the case), it would make their task of finishing inside the top four and qualifying for Champions League football next season a monumental challenge.
As fun as this contest is sure to be, I’m more interested in a wager from the match taking place at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Newcastle United.
Below you will find an overlay from this match, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
9-7-1 (55.9%), +5.35 units
MANCHESTER UNITED v. NEWCASTLE UNITED – DRAW NO BET – Newcastle United (+160)
Manchester United may be in the process of righting the ship, but Erik ten Hag’s men have quite a way to go before they earn the right to be such prohibitive favorites over a squad the quality of Newcastle.
The Red Devils enter Sunday’s tilt riding a three-game winning streak in all competitions, but it’s not as though they’ve faced the toughest opponents (AC Omonia twice in Europa League play; Everton in Premier League play) and they’ve been anything but stellar in those victories.
Ten Hag has done a good job of shoring up Manchester United’s defense this season, largely thanks to the contributions of center-backs Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez.
An area of concern, however, is the continued struggle to maintain possession – specifically against better teams.
Against Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City, United only maintained possession 38.7% of the time, a stark contrast to their 58% possession against Brighton, Brentford, Southampton, Leicester, and Everton.
This should be an alarming difference entering Sunday’s match, as Newcastle have turned the corner and look every bit a team that can finish inside the top four.
The Magpies have exploded for nine goals combined over their last two Premier League matches, and aside from their two games against Manchester City and Liverpool, they’ve dominated possession this season.
Yes, one could argue Manchester United will represent a challenge similar to that of a City or a Liverpool, but with the form Callum Wilson, Miguel Almirón, and – more specifically – Bruno Guimaraes have displayed recently, there’s every reason to believe Newcastle will be up for the test.
Sunday presents an opportunity for Newcastle United to show the Premier League that they’re not a team for the future; they’re a team for the here and now.
My numbers suggest Newcastle defeats Manchester United at Old Trafford – with a draw resulting in no bet – 47.3% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +111.