This week in the Premier League, we have one of the matches of the season. Manchester City travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool. What was supposed to be a match between the first and second-place teams is a match between the second and ninth. Manchester City have done their part, but Arsenal have been unbeatable. Liverpool have struggled, only winning two of their eight matches. Despite not winning, there is still quality in this Liverpool side, which is why it’s still a highly anticipated match. Here are the bets that I am targeting this weekend:
Liverpool vs. Manchester City (Sunday, 11:30 AM ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Liverpool (+250) | Draw (+300) | Manchester City (-110)
Bet: Manchester City Moneyline (-110)
There are prices you see for specific teams that you must take, and this price for Manchester City is something that cannot be ignored. I am backing them and not thinking twice. Playing at Anfield is no joke. Liverpool have not lost at home since March 7th, 2021. The problem for Liverpool is that this team has been dealing with injuries, and their quality is not nearly as good as in years past. The list of players in the medical tent is long: Luis Díaz, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlin, Curtis Jones, Naby Keita, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Joel Matip. They are basically down two essential members of their backline, one that has struggled to start the season. They are down two options in the central midfield, and most importantly, they are down their creator in Luis Díaz.
Liverpool have struggled to replace Sadio Mané. Diaz and Darwin Nunez were supposed to be the answer. Nunez has struggled to adjust to the physicality of the Premier League and has faced the pressure of the number nine at a major club. This doesn’t give me confidence in backing Liverpool against the best team in the Premier League.
When I said you must bet City at this price, it’s almost automatic unless they are down a few players. Against any team this season, this will be the lowest price we see with them at full strength.
City have seven wins and two draws on the season. Those two draws were on the road; a 3-3 draw against Newcastle and a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa. In the draw against Newcastle, they saw themselves down 2-1 at the half and 3-1 after 54 minutes. They couldn’t quite get the game-winner late. Even in that match, they won the possession battle and the xG battle. In the match against Aston Villa, they were in control throughout the entire match. Leon Bailey‘s equalizer was enough to earn the Villains one point. In that match, once again, City dominated.
I expect City to win the midfield battle. Kevin De Bruyne, Rodi, and if they decide to go with Bernardo Silva or Ilkay Gundogan, should win the battle over Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, and ThIago. The creativity and service of De Bruyne has been second to none. He has nine assists, and passing has been stellar. If you look at his numbers, they jump off the chart. Much of that concerns the two superstars he is passing to. The first is Phil Foden. Foden has six goals and four assists. We can’t forget about the most important offseason acquisition in Erling Haaland. Haaland has 15 goals on the season, more than 13 different Premier League teams. He is nearly automatic and should give the Liverpool backline fits.
