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With the international break in full flow and the Premier League on vacation till February 8th, I thought this would be the perfect opportunity to break down UEFA’s newest competition and offer some Future’s advice.
We are three weeks away from the inaugural UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL) Knockout Stage, and bettors and soccer fans around the world are trying to work out which club will go all the way.
All odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
There are 24 teams left, and we have a few elements that make this competition difficult to predict. First, we don’t know how serious the big sides will take it. Yes, it’s a trophy, and to be the first club to win it would be a nice feather in the cap.
At the time of writing, Roma, Olympique de Marseille, Stade Rennais, PSV Eindhoven, and Feyenoord are all in the running to qualify for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) in their respective domestic leagues. If it’s a toss-up between this competition on a Thursday night or a UCL qualification rival on the weekend, it’s the latter that will be prioritized.
For example, Ligue 1 side Stade Rennais +1000 are currently 5th, and six points off 3rd placed side Olympique de Marseille who have a game in hand. They have a massive fixture against 2nd placed Olympique Lyonnais on March 13th, sandwiched between the Last 16 ties on March 10th and 17th. Can we trust them to commit fully when bigger riches are to be had?
Second, we don’t know each side’s path to the final. We have the knockout round playoff first where the eight teams who finished second in their Groups face the eight 3rd placed UEFA Europa League (UEL) sides. The eight winners of those matches will be drawn on February 25th against the eight Group winners to decide who plays who in the Last 16. The eight winners of those games will be entered into the Quarter-finals and Semi-finals draw scheduled to take place on March 18th.
Leicester City’s opponent in the Knockout Round Playoff is Anders +9000, who have the longest odds to win this competition alongside Maccabi Tel Aviv. The Foxes should beat them comfortably and progress to the Last 16, where they could be drawn against 16th favorite FC Copenhagen +3300 or tournament favorites Roma +700.
Finally, the competition is spread over a long period of time where players and team’s form can fluctuate. Injuries and suspensions can also cause a club to exit prematurely.
There are two rule changes that will benefit the bigger clubs and make the competition less unpredictable. They are the removal of the away goal rule and adding a sixth substitute in extra time.
Every tie ending in a draw will go to extra time where teams are permitted to make a sixth substitute. The bigger clubs with the deeper squads will benefit because they have better players available who can make an impact against a weaker opponent that is tired.
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Europa Conference League Knockout Round Playoff Fixtures (Feb 17th and 24th)
Fenerbahçe vs. Slavia Praha
FC Midtjylland vs. PAOK
SK Rapid Wien vs. Vitesse
Olympique de Marseille vs. Qarabag FK
PSV Eindhoven vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv
Celtic vs. Bodø/Glimt
Leicester City vs. Randers
Sparta Praha vs. K Partizan
Europa Conference League Futures
Out of the 24 teams, there are seven who have a realistic chance of winning the UECL, in my opinion:
- *Roma +700
- Leicester City +800
- Olympique de Marseille +900
- *Stade Rennais +1000
- PSV Eindhoven +1100
- *Feyenoord +1400
- *AZ Alkmaar +2000
* Teams who won their Group and are in the Last 16
I advise avoiding the favorite Roma. José Mourinho is one of the best managers the game has ever seen and is absolute box office. The Special One is in a place in his career where the sparkle’s worn off, and he’s a few bad results away from upsetting anyone and everyone at Roma.
The cracks are beginning to show, and he already pulled his ‘players have weak mentality’ card after the late 4-3 collapse against Juventus on January 9th. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone before the end of the season.
Here are my recommendations for Safest Bet, Best Value, and Longshot.
Leicester City at +800 is the safest bet out of the big sides. They’re 10th in the Premier League and sit 12 points off the Top 4. It’s difficult imagining them making the ground up and competing for the UCL qualifying places even with two games in hand on 4th placed Manchester United.
The Foxes should easily handle their opponent Anders +9000 and make it to the Last 16, where all of the eight Group winners will be praying they don’t get drawn against Brendan Rodgers’ side. Those two fixtures are scheduled to take place on March 10th and 17th. By then, long-term absentees Jamie Vardy, Ricardo Pereira, and possibly Wesley Fofana should be fit and available.
Feyenoord did well to finish top of Group E. They were drawn against Slavia Praha, who knocked Leicester out of the UEL Last 16 and drew with Arsenal 1-1 at The Emirates in the Quarter-finals before exiting after a 4-0 defeat in the second-leg. Their other opponent was FC Union Berlin, who have been brilliant this season and are sitting 4th in the Bundesliga.
Also, Feyenoord’s striker Bryan Linssen and attacking midfielder Guus Til are having quite the season in the Eredivisie, scoring 11 goals each. Both have struggled to replicate those numbers in the UECL, managing two goals and one assist between them in 10 appearances. If they do manage to find their form, they could be a real force.
For those of you looking for a longshot, I think FC Copenhagen +3300 are worth considering. They were solid throughout the Group Stage, winning five of their six fixtures and scoring the second-highest amount of goals with 15. In the game they lost, goalkeeper Kamil Grabara was sent off after eight minutes for handling the ball outside the area.
The Danish Superliga ends March 20th, so they might struggle to stay competitive in the months after. A couple of fortuitous draws against similar or weaker opposition, and we could see them progress to the competition’s latter stages.
Safest Bet: Leicester City +800
Best Value: Feyenoord +1400
Longshot: FC Copenhagen +3300
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