NASCAR returns to one of the doglegged, 1.5-milers this week with the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. While that should be good news to fantasy players – because this track type makes up a fourth of the schedule and should be predictable as a result – last year’s edition of this race was anything but.
Difficulty with weepers in the surface confounded the teams all weekend long and the trouble did not let up once the green flag waved. The 2018 Cheat Sheets took a beating since auto racing is after all a zero sum game. For every driver who suffered after hitting the wall, another who was expected to run in the back of the pack rose to take his place.
There is no guarantee this year will be any different. Texas Motor Speedway is notorious for weepers since the year it was created despite the track’s best efforts. If the race goes off without a hitch, however, expect the predictions below to be accurate to within about five spots since that has been where we’ve trended lately.
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1. Kevin Harvick
This should be a week for Harvick to get back his winning form. He won last fall’s Texas 500 and finished in the top five in both 1.5-mile races this year.
2. Kyle Busch
Dating back to last Fall’s Can Am 500k at ISM Raceway, Busch has the longest active top-10 streak with eight. Three of these were victories and another was a second-place finish.
3. Joey Logano
Texas has been remarkably kind to Logano in the past few years. He enters with six consecutive finishes there of seventh or better and won the spring 2014 race.
4. Ryan Blaney
Blaney is finally coming into his own in 2019 with three consecutive top-fives at ISM, Auto Cub and Martinsville. Expect him to keep pace with his teammates again this week.
5. Brad Keselowski
Seven of Keselowski’s last eight attempts on this track type ended in top-10s, but his worst effort came last fall in the Texas 500 with a 12th to his credit.
6. Martin Truex Jr.
From last year’s first Kansas race through their fall event, Truex scored six consecutive top-fives on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. Two of his last three efforts on them were in the high single digits.
7. Aric Almirola
Expect Almirola’s top-10 streak to continue this week. He’s finished between sixth and 10th in his last six attempts on doglegged and double-doglegged, 1.5-mile tracks.
8. Kurt Busch
Busch has scored top-fives at both Atlanta and Vegas, but last year with an even stronger team, he failed to crack the top five a single time on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.
9. Chase Elliott
Elliott did not earn very many top-10s on the 1.5-milers last year, but he was great in 2017 and has a little momentum on his side after an impressive second-place finish at Martinsville.
10. Denny Hamlin
We expected a little falloff from Hamlin after his Daytona 500 win. In five races since then he’s scored only two top-fives, but has a worst finish of 11th.
11. Erik Jones
Jones’ 13th-place finish at Vegas was only the fourth time in the last two years that he finished outside the top 10 on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track.
12. Kyle Larson
This has not been an auspicious season for Larson. He has only one top-10 on an unrestricted track and doesn’t seem poised to do any better that at Texas.
13. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer got off to a strong start on this track type in 2019 with a fifth at Atlanta. He faded at Vegas to 14th and had a miserable race on the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway, however.
14. Alex Bowman
In his last four starts on the doglegged 1.5-mile tracks, Bowman has scored a worst finish of 15th. Last year, he had three top-10s to his credit, so he will be a good value when he’s rightly-priced.
15. William Byron
Byron could be one of the most-improved drivers on 1.5-milers this year. In games where his salary cap is struggling to catch up, that could make him a very good value.
16. Daniel Suarez
Suarez will outperform this prediction if his teammate Harvick comes out of the garage fast. The team tends to rise and fall as a whole.
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Based on his 18th-place finish at Atlanta, we didn’t expect all that much from Stenhouse in Vegas. He stayed on the lead lap and finished sixth that week, however.
18. Paul Menard
Keep a close eye on Menard this week. It’s unlikely that he will finish in the top 10, but a manageable salary cap for the No. 21 often makes his mid-teens results on 1.5-milers profitable.
19. Austin Dillon
He hasn’t been all that fast on 1.5-milers this year, but Dillon has been consistent with a 21st at Atlanta and 20th at Vegas.
20. Jimmie Johnson
Just when we started to have a little faith in Johnson last week, he struggled on a track that is supposed to be one of his best courses.
21. Chris Buescher
Buescher’s ninth-place finish in Atlanta was quite the surprise. He was still a good value a couple of weeks later when he finished 18th in the Pennzoil 400 at Vegas.
22. Ryan Newman
We were excited by Newman’s prospects after he finished 13th in the QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta; he faded to 24th at Vegas, however, and now we expect him to be mid-pack.
23. Daniel Hemric
If he fits the right niche on your roster, Hemric could be a solid value with a pair of results in the low-20s on 1.5-mile tracks.
24. Matt DiBenedetto
While we are not quite seeing the level of improvement we expected from DiBenedetto this year, he has managed to finish on the lead lap in his last two attempts.
25. David Ragan
One of Ragan’s best results this season came on the similarly-configured Atlanta Motor Speedway with a 16th. Since then, he’s finished between 25th and 28th.
26. Bubba Wallace
Wallace has shown a lot of consistency on the doglegged oval with results of 25th through 27th in his last four attempts.
27. Ty Dillon
Dillon’s last four starts on doglegged 1.5-milers ended in the 20s, but his latest effort at Vegas was just barely so in 29th.
28. Ryan Preece
Preece’s two starts on this track type in 2019 were quite different from one another. He finished 35t at Atlanta following a pit road accident and was 25th at Vegas.
29. Ross Chastain
Last year, Chastain scored eight top-30s in 10 races on this track type. So far in 2019, he hasn’t been able to finish that well in two races.
30. Matt Tifft
Tifft has been a solid value in the past few weeks on short, flat tracks, but he has not been nearly as strong on the1.5-milers.
31. Landon Cassill
There were a couple of occasions early last year when Cassill and this team were fantasy relevant. In 2019, they haven’t come out of the gates very strong and have beaten only a handful of teams each week.
32. Corey LaJoie
In his latest attempt on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track, LaJoie came close to cracking the top 25 with a 27th-place finish in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas.
33. Parker Kligerman
The Gaunt Bros.’s No 96 only shows up occasionally, but when they do they go the distance. In the last three similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track races, Kligerman finished 30th or 31st.
34. Michael McDowell
On unrestricted tracks this year, McDowell has scored one top-25, another top-30 and has an average of 31.6. Use this week to evaluate him for the remainder of the season.
35. Reed Sorenson
This is only the second week in 2019 that will showcase a full field. Sorenson will compete in a second Premium Motorsports entry alongside Chastain - who has been a decent value on occasion.
36. Garrett Smithley
Smithley has made two starts with this team on unrestricted, intermediate speedways this year. He finished 36th at both Atlanta and Auto Club.
37. Bayley Currey
Currey’s first career Cup race at ISM netted a 31st-place finish, but that came in a thin field. This week, 40 cars will be in attendance for the O’Reilly 500.
38. Timmy Hill
Hill’s last three starts with this team ended 37th or worse last fall, so there is no reason to expect much more out of the No. 66 on the high-speed Texas track.
39. Cody Ware
In six races this year, Ware has moved up only through attrition. He’s gaining experience, but fantasy owners are not earning a lot of points with the No. 51 on the roster.
40. No. 97, Victor Obaika Racing
No matter who is behind the wheel of this team, little should be expected as they get their feet wet in the 2019 season.
Most Accurate Predictions This Year | ||
Driver | Avg. Difference | Times Within 3 |
| ||
1.8 | 5 | |
2.3 | 5 | |
3.2 | 4 | |
3.2 | 3 | |
3.5 | 5 | |
4.0 | 3 | |
4.2 | 3 | |
4.5 | 3 | |
4.5 | 2 | |
4.7 | 2 |
