The perfect scenario for the top quarterbacks in any given draft class is to be given the best chance at letting their talents fully translate by landing with one of the NFL’s most solid all-around teams.
Unfortunately, it is the exact opposite. The worst teams pick first, and it’s become an all-too-common trend that quarterbacks are not given the chance to sit and learn the first year and end up taking the majority of the criticism for not being able to quite literally turn around one of the poorest teams in the league single-handedly.
While there doesn’t look to be a quarterback in this class prepared to go in and shoulder that responsibility in Year 1, there are several who look to be high-end backups who could stick around in the league for a long time along with a small handful who have a shot at hanging in as a starter.
Here’s a look into where each quarterback who has been largely projected to be one of the first five off the board could land and how they fit in there.
1. Malik Willis, Liberty.
Most likely fit: Detroit Lions or Carolina Panthers
Though former Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is still very much in the mix to be the first quarterback off the board, Willis seems to be the more likely option at this point. If the Lions or the Panthers are the first team to select a quarterback, they’ll be choosing directly between the ceiling and the floor with those two. Willis has more “it” factor to him from an athletic standpoint than any other quarterback available for the taking by a good measure. Willis has shown great improvement as a passer throughout the pre-draft process after having some struggles throwing the ball well at several points during the 2021 season. If he can maintain consistency and that magician-like mobility and escapability, he can elevate a team from Day 1.
The Lions are a team that has been heavily tied to Willis ahead of April and could use a quarterback with a high ceiling as they continue their rebuild. They also had the opportunity to really work with him during the Senior Bowl, so Detroit should have little doubt at this point whether or not Willis is their guy.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell has spoken highly of Willis.
“I think he throws a nice ball,” Campbell told reporters. “I think he’s pretty athletic. He’s built better than (I thought). From afar, you don’t know. That’s why (it’s important) to be able to see these guys up close, and he’s a good-looking player, man. He’s built right. Looks like he’s built to last.”
The Panthers aren’t in a fantastic position at quarterback with how questionable Sam Darnold‘s play has been at times and how unproven PJ Walker still is at the NFL after shining as an XFL standout with the Houston Renegades. If Willis somehow doesn’t go to the Lions and the Panthers are banking on upside, this seems to be the surest predictive pick for them.
2. Kenny Pickett, Pitt.
Most likely fit: New Orleans Saints or Carolina Panthers
It’s easy to get the feeling if the Lions do go quarterback with their pick, it will be Willis, which leaves Carolina as one of the most logical spots for Pickett to land. Some have made the case that Pickett is the most pro-ready quarterback in the class, which makes sense considering he does have the highest floor, didn’t do anything to hurt or boost his stock throughout the pre-draft process, and is above-average in quite literally every aspect of quarterbacking.
While Pickett doesn’t have a standout “it” factor that a player like Willis has athletically or a Carson Strong does as far as the deep ball, Pickett has shown flashes of brilliance and has rightfully earned some comparisons to Joe Burrow in certain aspects of his playstyle. While there’s definitely a gap there and Burrow seems to have a decently higher ceiling the way things look right now, it’s safe to say Pickett has been doing something right and is in good company.
Whichever team drafts Pickett -- which could very well be either the Saints or the Panthers -- will get the embodiment of consistency in a player. If the Lions do not draft a quarterback and the Panthers go with Willis, it seems most likely the Saints would be the next team to act on Pickett the way the draft order currently stands.
3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss.
Most likely fit: New Orleans Saints or Detroit Lions
There was a time in the season that Corral was a pretty popular QB1 among analysts, though he’s not fallen out of the top-three for most. Part of the reason there was a stretch of time in which Corral wasn’t talked about as much is because some of the games he played hurt or injured toward the end of the season -- which reportedly did play a role in his decision to not throw at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine. If he would have been at full capacity to throw at the showcase, it could be argued Corral could have raised his stock by throwing to receivers that were not his own. On top of this, Corral didn’t have the ability to participate in the Senior Bowl or the Shrine Bowl, though it’s reasonable to assume he would have been right there in the Mobile lineup had he met the criteria.
Corral ran an Ole Miss offense that utilized RPOs a lot at a high level, and the primary knock on him that exists is the notion he simply benefitted from an offense that fit him so well and may not translate to the NFL. Scheme aside, Corral has shown a lot of impressive things from a pure quarterback perspective with a high level of arm strength, good velocity on the ball, and the ability to use his legs to get out of bad situations and make plays on his own. He took a notable jump between 2020 and 2021, further increasing what was already a good level of overall accuracy, quickness in getting the ball out, and decision-making that looked a lot better than the previous season.
The Saints have shown a tendency over recent history to like quarterbacks with athletic abilities to their game, and Corral checks the box for them on that much in addition to his other attributes. If he’s still available for the Lions to take at the end of Day 1, he’ll be one of the best options available as Detroit looks to fix its franchise.
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati.
Most likely fit: Atlanta Falcons or Detroit Lions
Ridder put the nation on notice during the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine with an impressive 40-yard dash time of 4.52 seconds. After also throwing the ball well in offseason showcases like the Combine and the Senior Bowl, Ridder’s stock has risen in the eyes of many. But the thing about Ridder, his athleticism, and his ability to use his legs is the Cincinnati offense didn’t really give him a chance to do so, using him in more of a game manager role than anything else. That has a lot to do with why he didn’t exactly pop on the stat sheet either.
“I think I left it all out there and that showed every place I stepped foot in (in Indianapolis),” Ridder told me earlier this offseason. “I wish I could have jumped a little bit higher on the (vertical jump) and a little bit further on the (broad jump) and had one or two balls back. As far as the 40-yard dash goes, maybe some people were questioning my speed, and I put that out there for everyone to see and it showed very well. I went out there with no regrets and had fun.”
If he’s put into more of a freewheeling offense that utilizes play-action and some designed quarterback runs, there’s a chance he could be seen similarly to a Marcus Mariota-type.
“If we ran a no-huddle, up-tempo offense, I think people might see me (like Marcus Mariota),” Ridder said. “I’ve looked at Marcus Mariota ever since I was growing up watching him at Oregon and watching him win the Heisman and having an NFL career. It’s been fun seeing someone who kind of has body-type similarities to me have success.”
If the Lions take a quarterback with their final selection of the first round or if the Falcons have a shot at him by either trading up or Ridder simply still being available, he could have a chance to show more from an athletic perspective at the next level.
5. Sam Howell, UNC.
Most likely fit: Seattle Seahawks or Detroit Lions
Howell is among the quarterbacks who have been projected all over the place ahead of the Draft. While he still needs development and has a lot to prove before he can truly be compared to Russell Wilson, Howell has, well, some Wilson-esque traits to him. Howell has proven effective as a passer with a solid arm and has a tough, get-the-job-done-no-matter-what-it-takes sense of mobility. When one considers how much he was up against with the shortcomings of his own offensive line and supporting cast, what he accomplished this season seems more impressive. And, speaking of Wilson, it’s well-known that he’s no longer a Seahawk and will be suiting up for the Denver Broncos for the foreseeable future. Depending on how things shake out, it could be a solid decision for Seattle to target Howell on Day 2.
There’s plenty of reason to believe a team like the Lions would want to go quarterback-first with the No.2 overall pick, but if they fill another need and draft, perhaps an EDGE, they could use the final pick of Day 1 to address quarterback. If that’s the case, it’s practically certain that at least two -- if not all -- of the aforementioned quarterbacks could be off the board at pick No. 32 depending on how heavily teams go after the position in the first round. Howell has a lot of likable traits to build upon, though working through some inconsistencies and polishing things up from a footwork perspective will be areas for him to continue improving.
