Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly ($9.99) or save 20% on an annual subscription ($95.88). And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Death, taxes, and every analyst dying to comp players from an incoming NFL draft class to players we’ve seen before. These are the only certainties in life.
This time of year is the time that every analyst most looks forward to telling us about how “Player-X” looks like “Player-Y” and here’s why. At times we get very thoughtful comparisons that cause us to pause, step back and consider what was just said about a comp.
Other times, we laugh at the latest analyst to find a white running back who caught a single pass in college, thus excitedly comping him to the Carolina Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey. I’m sure the, “Max Borghi is CMC” takes are already out there somewhere.
Fortunately, the fine folks over at RotoViz.com have allowed us to enjoy the use of their Box Score Scout tool. The BSS allows us to see how players from past and present draft classes comp to other players based on their statistical profiles from their college production. It serves as a great way of removing biases that we may use when comping players solely based on what we see from them on the field or their physical traits.
Taking a look at Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0, we are going to see how the four quarterbacks he mocked in the first round of the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft compare to other players when plugged into RotoViz’s BSS. For a class that has already been heralded as one of the more underwhelming QB classes in recent draft memory, let’s see how these quarterbacks compare to others by the numbers.
Things to Know
Before we dive head first into these comparisons, there’s a few things we should know about the BSS. The first is that when drawing these comps, they offer what is called a “sim score” that is measured on a scale of 1-100. The sim score lets you know just how closely a player compares to the comps given to him, with the higher number indicating the stronger comp.
Take for example this player comp for Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.
There’s a good chance you won’t find Mayfield being comped to former Western Michigan quarterback Zach Terrell in too many 2017 NFL Draft write-ups. Which is understandable for several reasons. But from a statistical breakdown, the BSS suggests that Terrell, an undrafted rookie free agent who never threw an NFL pass closely comps to Mayfield from a collegiate production standpoint.
It is interesting to note that Mayfield does not have particularly strong comps, and that two quarterbacks from the 2022 class actually show up in his grouping. Mayfield is heading into his fifth season with the Browns and there appears to be a very real chance that they will not be looking to offer him any kind of a lucrative contract following the 2022 season - if they choose to offer him any contract at all.
The second thing I want to point out is the “Draft Pos” function, which we will be using for the remainder of this article.
Because draft capital plays such an important role in the future success of NFL players, the BSS allows you to adjust players for draft position. You can literally take it down to the pick, but for the sake of showing how applying general first round draft capital works, here are Mayfield’s comps again, with top-32 draft capital applied.
With first round draft capital applied to Mayfield we get much better names thrown into his player comps, however it’s worth noting his closest comp, Geno Smith, has a sim score of 74, suggesting that this is his best comp based on his college numbers plus draft capital. Things get a little shaky after that with Teddy Bridgewater being his next closest comp with a 43 sim score.
Because we are going to be looking at the four quarterbacks Thor had going in the first round of his latest mock draft, we will be applying top-32 draft capital to every quarterback for this exercise.
Bear in mind, again, that these comps and this article are not meant to say any one player will or will not succeed at the NFL level. We won’t know the answer to that for several years down the road. But it’s a worthwhile exercise to see a number of players comped to these potential first rounders based on their numbers rather than simply drawing conclusions from a few tools and traits that we’ve noticed over the years of watching these players.
With that being said, let’s have a look at these players.
Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Carolina Panthers - 6th overall
Everyone (and their mothers) became hand-size experts during the Senior Bowl when former Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett opted to not have his hands measured. Pickett reportedly has some of the smallest hands of any quarterback we’ve seen in recent years. Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow had hands that measured 9" during the 2020 Draft, also historically small. All he did was go No. 1 overall to the Bengals and lead them to a Super Bowl in his second season.
Does hand size matter? Perhaps to some degree, but it won’t stop Pickett from going in the first round, and it didn’t stop Thor from making him the overall QB1 of the draft class in his latest mock.
Here are Pickett’s comps.
It’s interesting to note that even when adding first round capital to Pickett’s profile, the BSS is unable to find any numerically based comps to Pickett who went in the first round. With that being said, Pickett does have some serviceable comps with perhaps his best and most closet being Chicago Bears quarterback Andy Dalton.
Late-career Dalton looks more like a player who should be hanging it up, but early-career Dalton enjoyed some success. During his first five years in the league, Dalton posted a 50-26 record which included four seasons of 10+ wins. He threw for 18,008 yards, 124 touchdowns and 73 interceptions while also rushing for 262-766-14. Dalton helped lead the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first five seasons, however Cincinnati failed to win a single game over that span.
The Kirk Cousins comp is also promising, although Pickett comping to both Dalton and Cousins aligns with some suggesting that his ceiling may be nothing more than a serviceable to top-15 NFL starter.
Pickett was a fifth-year college quarterback who opted to return to Pittsburgh in 2021 in hopes of boosting his draft stock for the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s safe to say he did exactly that, as he threw for 4,319 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and finished third in Heisman votes. He led the Panthers to an 11-3 record in his final year, and helped the Panthers to an ACC Championship win over Wake Forest.
It’s a virtual lock that Pickett will be selected in the first round of this spring’s draft. Whether or not he’ll end up on the right side of these player comps (or better) is to be determined.
Malik Willis - Liberty
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Atlanta Falcons - 8th overall
I’m already on record with Thor for loving this pick, as I thought the Falcons should have taken a shot on a future quarterback last year rather than going with former Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.
Matt Ryan’s best days are undoubtedly behind him. The 2016 NFL MVP hasn’t thrown for more than 26 touchdown passes in any of his last three seasons, and the Falcons are 18-30 over that span.
Former Liberty quarterback Malik Willis is viewed as one of, if not the most raw talent in this year’s draft, but has arguably the most upside as well. He’ll likely need to sit for his rookie year and develop under a seasoned vet and coaching staff, which makes this pick so perfect with Ryan already set to return in 2022.
No player in Willis’ comps have a sim score higher than 47 (Pat White), which I think speaks to the elite ceiling or underwhelming floor that many see in Willis.
Willis gets praised for his elite arm strength and athleticism. His arm may be the strongest in the league the moment he gets drafted if his Senior Bowl hype is any indicator.
This is an eye-popping number: 75.7 mph, significantly higher than the previous best measured at the Senior Bowl, which was Josh Allen’s 66.1 mph. Good stuff from @JoshTheAthletic here on Malik Willis. https://t.co/Bf4i6uDpXs
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) February 8, 2022
Willis averaged 141.89 passing yards per game, and of those comped to him, only four quarterbacks have thrown for fewer yards per game in their collegiate career. Now, as the great Billy Mays said, “but wait, there’s more.”
Part of Willis’ per-game average in these comps includes his 12 games at Auburn, where he went 11-of-14 passing for 69 yards and one touchdown. If you account for only his two seasons at Liberty, Willis’ passing yards per game jumps to 222.04, which would be the second-highest total of his comps behind Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. For some, Jackson is one of their favorite comps when it comes to discussing Willis’ upside.
Like Willis, Jackson was viewed as a developmental player when the Ravens selected him 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Jackson was eventually handed the keys to the Ravens’ offense in Week 11 of the 2018 season, but he didn’t fully come into his own until 2019. In his second season, Baltimore fully catered its offense to fit Jackson’s play style. The end result was a 13-2 record with Jackson under center, the no. 1 seed for the AFC playoff race, and an MVP for Jackson, who threw for 3,127-36-6, while rushing for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns.
When it comes to a floor comp, former Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor feels right.
Taylor was signed as a free agent by the Bills during the 2015 season and spent three seasons as Buffalo’s starter. During that time, Taylor went 22-20 as a starter while throwing for 8,857 yards, 51 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He also rushed 283 times for 1,575 yards and another 14 scores. He helped lead the Bills to a playoff appearance during the 2017 season, before he and the Bills lost 10-3 to a Blake Bortles led Jaguars team. From an arm talent perspective however, Willis and Taylor are in completely different weight classes.
Selecting Willis could make or break the future of any coach or GM that drafts him. Teams will need to decide whether or not his ceiling is worth the gamble, and whether or not they are willing to wait a year to tap into it.
Matt Corral - Ole Miss
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Washington Commanders - 11th overall
Living just outside of our nation’s capital, I’ve heard enough bad quarterback takes over this past year to last me a lifetime.
Between takes about Taylor Heinicke possibly being the future of the franchise, to the team making trades for an established veteran, and one recent local broadcast questioning whether or not Washington should trade for the Packers’ Jordan Love if all else fails, it’s obvious that Washington is longing for a franchise quarterback.
Enter Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral, whose buzz has died down recently due to the fact that he didn’t get to participate in the Senior Bowl and receive the same hype as its other six QB participants.
Corral will get a chance to add fuel to his hype train at this year’s NFL Combine, but has an interesting group of comps.
Once again, Andy Dalton makes his way into the fold. It would appear that every quarterback is Andy Dalton. However, it is telling that a quarterback class largely viewed as mediocre keeps pulling these Dalton comps, as Dalton was regarded by many as an above average quarterback at best for his career.
Teddy Bridgewater feels like an accurately similar comp to Dalton, although Bridgewater hasn’t enjoyed nearly the success that Dalton has. In seven seasons and 63 career starts, Bridgewater has never thrown for more than 18 touchdowns in a season, which feels almost impossible in today’s pass-heavy NFL.
There are things about Corral that I love relative to his comps.
His career adjusted yards per attempt of 9.22 are higher than that of his 10 closest comps, while his rushing yards per game are the second-highest of his comps behind Dak Prescott (51.45).
Corral’s playmaking ability stood out in a big way in 2021. He looked like an absolute baller last season for the Rebels, at times taking it upon himself to win games with his legs, as he rushed 10 times or more in nine of 13 games played.
In Week 6 against Tennessee, Corral rushed 30 times for 195 yards, and rushed for 15/94/2 in the previous week against Arkansas. Ole Miss won each of those games.
Over the last two seasons, Corral has rushed 264 times for 1,120 yards and 14 touchdowns. While he likely won’t enjoy the same rushing success at the NFL level, he’s a quarterback who is capable of making plays with his legs when needed. Prior to the devastating ankle injury Dak Prescott suffered in 2020, Prescott had rushed 241 times for 1,221 yards and 21 touchdowns in his first four seasons, averaging 305.3 rushing yards per year.
If Corral turns out to be Washington’s version of Prescott, Commanders fans will be very happy. Even if it means just one playoff win in his first six seasons.
Sam Howell - North Carolina
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 27th overall
As of now, Tom Brady is retired and never coming back. Even if he does come back, there’s no guarantee he returns to the Bucs as stories of a frayed relationship with head coach Bruce Arians have surfaced.
Assuming Brady doesn’t return to the Bucs in 2022, Tampa Bay will need to start either Kyle Trask, Blaine Gabbert, another NFL vet acquired via trade or free agency or a rookie from this year’s draft.
In the case of Thor’s mock, enter UNC quarterback Sam Howell.
Howell saw his star dim a bit in 2021 after a 2020 season drove his hype to its absolute peak.
During that 2020 season, Howell appeared in 12 games while throwing for 3,586 yards, 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions, leading the Tar Heels to an 8-4 record and an appearance in the Orange Bowl.
In a 2021 season that was expected to build on Howell’s hype, Howell threw for just 3,056 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions while still playing in all 12 of his team’s games.
Some may point to the key players Howell lost to last year’s draft, with running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter both leaving for the NFL, along with wide receiver Dyami Brown. Williams and Carter both rushed for over 1,100 yards in 2020, and accounted for 50 of the team’s receptions, while Brown was the team’s leading receiver (55-1099-8). Even the team’s second-leading WR, Dazz Newsome (54-684-6) left for the NFL and was drafted by the Chicago Bears.
Howell had a completely new supporting cast to work with in 2021, which may have proven to be too much for him to overcome.
Outside of some of the comps we’ve already seen for other quarterbacks, Howell pulls an interesting Deshaun Watson comp. If a player of Watson’s caliber proves to be Howell’s ceiling, then Tampa Bay may soon find itself in yet another Super Bowl.
In terms of his play style, Howell upped his rushing production in a big way in 2021. Per Pro Football Focus, he totaled 57 scrambles over his first two years at UNC. IN 2021 he tore off 60 scrambles, and received a rushing grade of 91.0 on the site.
Prior to 2021, Howell had never rushed for more than 146 yards in a season but posted a career-high in rushing yards last season when he rushed 183 times for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. Howell working with an underwhelming cast of characters last season may have left him feeling like he had to do more to win games on his own, but it was an impressive jump for the 2019 recruit who was regarded as the no. 3 dual threat quarterback of his recruiting class on 247Sports.com.
Over time we will learn how close these players are to their statistical-based comps. The best case scenario is a few of these players hit their absolute ceilings and become franchise quarterbacks for years to come.
The worst case scenario would be every team reaching into the quarterback basket and pulling out something that looks like Andy Dalton.
