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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
Byes: Panthers, Browns, Packers, Titans
Already Played: Cowboys, Saints
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Giants at Dolphins, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Giants Implied Team Total: 16.5
Daniel Jones is out this week with a neck injury, leaving Mike Glennon to face a formidable Dolphins defense. The Dolphins lead the league in blitz rate, bringing additional defenders on 42% of dropbacks.
And the thing with the Dolphins is that they don’t just blitz for the hell of it; they blitz because it helps them get to the quarterback. The Dolphins rank second behind only the Bills in pressure rate and rank third quick pressures.* Miami’s ability to get to the quarterback has translated into strong defensive play. They rank fifth in EPA** allowed per dropback.
This is a good game for Jones to miss... because he’s terrible against the blitz. Jones ranks 26th in yards per attempt and 34th in passer rating against the blitz. Only Tyler Huntley, Andy Dalton, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson have a worse passer rating against the blitz. Jones’ struggles make sense because he is also bad when pressured. He ranks 30th in YPA and 25th in passer rating against pressure.
Glennon’s sample sizes are small, but he’s actually been great against the blitz, posting an 8.9 YPA in 2020 and 8.0 in 2017. I promise I’m not touting Mike Glennon. But given the matchup, Jones’ absence could be addition by subtraction for the Giants’ skill players.
Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney both look highly questionable for Sunday, which likely leaves Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as the top two receivers. Golladay and Slayton have seen substantial volume this season, with 28% and 26% air yard shares. But both are inconsistent deep threats in a lousy offense. Their aDOTs of 14.3 and 12.6 give them the potential to hit big plays. But their depth of target has also limited their target shares to just 17% and 15%. On the other hand, Golladay saw multiple end zone targets in Week 12 and has enough ceiling to be in the conversation as a FLEX option.
Saquon Barkley had a disappointing Week 12, but his underlying usage was very bullish. Barkley jumped from 62% of snaps to 87%, marking the second time this season that the Giants have installed him as an every-down back following an injury recovery.
Barkley also ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and had a 17% target share. Everything is in place for him to have an RB1 week... if the Giants offense can avoid disaster.
Keep in mind that Barkley is a volatile rusher. But there’s upside in volatility. Barkley has generated 40% of his rushing yards on 15+ yard runs, which puts him just ahead of Jonathan Taylor for the NFL lead in breakaway percentage. 2021 has been a disastrous fantasy season for Barkley, but he still looks capable of hitting big weeks with a combination of long runs and receiving ability. He profiles as a high-end RB2 in this matchup.
*pressures under 2.5 seconds
**(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 22.5
Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a strong week. He finished fifth in EPA per play (which measures efficiency) and fourth in CPOE (which measures accuracy) against the Panthers, one of the best defenses in the league. Tagovailoa is now up to 19th in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE this year.
This week he gets a Giants defense that entered Week 12 ranked 20th in EPA allowed per dropback; after dominating Jalen Hurts, they’re up to ninth. PFF remains unimpressed. The Giants rank 31st in pass-rush grade and 19th in coverage grade. But New York has had a challenging schedule. Six of their 11 games have come against top-10 offenses in EPA per dropback: the Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers, and Cowboys. The Giants were due for some positive regression, and they got it in a big way against the Eagles. Tagovailoa can deliver efficiently if playing at his best this week, but the Giants create risk for a frustrating outing here.
DeVante Parker looks set to return against the Giants and should boost the Dolphins passing game if he does. Parker has a poor 7.8 YPT for his 12.9 aDOT, and as a result, he has a mediocre 1.67 yards per route run this season. But Parker is drawing targets on 21% of his routes, an impressive target rate. His presence should help open up the offense a bit, and his deep ball upside puts him in FLEX consideration.
While Parker was out, Jaylen Waddle emerged as the team’s WR1. Waddle has been targeted on 23% of his routes this season and is up to 25% since Week 9. However, Waddle’s 7.0 aDOT limits his upside to some extent. As a result, his middling 1.69 YPRR is in line with his target profile. He needs elite target volume to generate a high ceiling. That’s certainly possible, given what we’ve seen over the last few weeks, but it’s a risky bet here with the offense potentially struggling.
Mike Gesicki has a mediocre 1.49 YPRR, which aligns with his target profile. He’s a serviceable tight end option but looks like a borderline TE1 with Parker back.
The Giants are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per rush and 30th in run defense grade. Although, the Dolphins aren’t well-positioned to take advantage of the Giants’ weakness. The Dolphins rank 31st in EPA per rush, and they’re well aware they can’t run the ball. Miami ranks seventh in situation neutral pass rate, and their 4% pass rate over expected is the sixth highest in the NFL.
Against the Panthers, the Dolphins went truly run-heavy for the first time all season with a -6% pass rate over expected. This makes sense, given that the Panthers are a giant run funnel. But despite the Giants’ weakness in run defense, teams have been balanced against them. And with Miami favoring the pass, I expect them to follow suit unless they can play from ahead throughout.
Myles Gaskin was actually efficient in Week 12, adding 2.6 points to a 16.6 expected points workload. Gaskin’s strong play against a tough Panthers defense and also came at a good time with the team is currently checking out what it has in Phillip Lindsay. Gaskin has left 29.4 points on the field this season, the fourth-worst showing in the league. But coming off a strong day, and with Lindsay banged up, Gaskin looks poised for a quality workload in a good matchup. He’s a solid RB2 option.
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Colts at Texans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Colts Implied Team Total: 27.25
Carson Wentz has been one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league this season. He ranks 31st in CPOE ahead of only Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trevor Siemian. Wentz has been particularly bad underneath, ranking QB26 in adjusted completion percentage on short throws and QB35 on throws behind the line of scrimmage. However, he’s been much better attacking intermediate and deep, where he ranks QB18 and QB12.
The Colts are aware of who Wentz is. He ranks QB16 in deep attempt percentage and QB6 in deep passing yards. To some extent, Wentz’s success downfield has allowed him to overcome his miserable accuracy; he ranks a mediocre QB21 EPA per play.
He now gets a Texans defense that is also mediocre, ranking 17th in EPA per play, eighth in pass-rush grade, and 31st in coverage grade. But the Texans have had an easy schedule. They’ve played the Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Panthers, and Jets, who all rank bottom 12 in EPA per dropback. Moreover, the Colts had no trouble with them in Week 6, winning 31-3. As nine-point favorites, the Colts aren’t likely to attempt a ton of passes this week, but Wentz should be reasonably efficient with what he’s asked to do.
Michael Pittman is the only fantasy-relevant option in this passing game. T.Y. Hilton might be if he was a full-time player. But he’s run a route on just 64% of dropbacks this season and was at 65% last week, so he’s a very thin play in this low-volume passing attack.
Pittman has a 96% route rate and leads the team with a 23% target share and a 32% air yard share. He has a good 1.89 YPRR, which is supported by his target profile. He has paths to failure in a potentially low-volume attack, but if Wentz has a nice day, he should carry Pittman to a strong fantasy outing.
The Texans are a respectable run defense, ranking 11th in EPA allowed per rush and 18th in run defense grade. And the Colts are a balanced team with a -1% PROE, so it’s likely they pass somewhat frequently with the game in doubt. But eventually... Jonathan Taylor is going to get rolling.
Taylor ranks first in NFL Next Gens’ success/attempt metric, second in breakaway percentage, sixth in elusive rating, and 11th in YPRR. A mediocre Texans run defense isn’t going to stand in his way, as he showed in Week 6 with a 14-145-2 rushing line. Taylor is, rather obviously, the best running back play of the week.
Texans Implied Team Total: 18.25
Tyrod Taylor ranks 28th in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE. He’s been markedly more efficient than Davis Mills, but that says more about the rookie than it does about Taylor.
Taylor now faces a solid Colts defense that ranks 11th in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass-rush grade, and 22nd in coverage grade. Taylor is destined to be playing from behind here and is unlikely to have an efficient day. However, we may see increased volume from the passing game.
Brandin Cooks is the only fantasy-relevant option in the Texans passing game, but he’s still tough to trust on a weekly basis. Cooks hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 3, and at this point, his 3-45-1 line against the Jets qualifies as a spike week. Still, Cooks is tied with Justin Jefferson for second in the NFL in air yard share, behind only Terry McLaurin. That alone makes him a solid FLEX option as a bet that the Texans are forced to throw heavily this week.
But the Texans try to avoid passing whenever possible. They have a -3% pass rate over expected, ranked 24th in the league, and they rank 29th in situation-neutral pass rate. This... despite the fact they have the least efficient rushing offense in the NFL.
The Texans being bad at running the ball shouldn’t be a shock, given who they’ve rolled out this year. Over the last two weeks, Rex Burkhead emerged as Texans’ lead rusher, and this is starting to feel like a game of chicken with David Culley. At this point, I’m expecting the Week 18 starter to be Trent Richardson.
Since Week 11, Burkhead has played 51% of snaps to David Johnson’s 47% and handled 56% of backfield attempts to Johnson’s 42%. Johnson is still seeing goal line work and targets, but Burkhead tied him with a 12% target share last week. For now, the backfield looks like the truest of stay-aways, although if you made me choose, I’d play Burkhead.
If Johnson misses this game, Burkhead is in play as a hold-your-nose RB2. But if you play him make peace with the fact it will be a Royce Freeman week.
Vikings at Lions, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Vikings Implied Team Total: 26.75
Kirk Cousins is having a very solid season, ranking 13th in EPA per play and 15th in CPOE. He now gets a Lions defense that could allow him to challenge to for a top 10 ranking in efficiency.
The Lions rank 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 28th in pass-rush grade, and 32nd in coverage grade. And while the Lions have had played some difficult opponents, they’ve also played some ineffective ones. Their defense is legitimately terrible.
The Lions are 31st in the league at the rate they allow 15+ yard passes. Only the Jets allow a higher percentage of 15+ yard passes. Cousins is well-positioned to take advantage of this, ranking third in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws and second on intermediate throws.
The problem is that the Lions are also terrible against the run, ranking 24th in EPA allowed per rush and 23rd in run defense grade. The Vikings can attack the Lions however they’d like, and they already showed us their preference with a -2% pass rate over expected against the Lions in Week 5. The Vikings have strongly preferred the run all season, ranking 26th with a -5% PROE.
Hopefully, their embarrassingly close 19-17 win over the Lions will push them to play a bit more aggressively in their rematch. Cousins can have a big day if he’s allowed to chuck it.
Justin Jefferson is always an elite play, but this matchup sets him up for a huge week. Jefferson isn’t a pure deep threat, but his 12.7 aDOT indicates a nice mix of deep shots and intermediate targets. And when Cousins challenges deep, Jefferson is frequently his target. The second-year star trails only Terry McLaurin with a 44% air yard share. Jefferson is also targeted often, with a 24% target rate. Jefferson has an ultra-elite 2.53 YPRR, and while he’s running a bit hot with a 10.7 YPT, there’s little reason to worry that the Lions will bring the regression hammer down.
Adam Thielen is up to a mediocre 1.62 YPRR. But, Thielen has a 97% route rate this season and was at 100% in Week 12. And he’s also one of three wide receivers with 10 TDs this season—the other two being Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans. I’ve joked for weeks that Thielen should have tight end eligibility, but I don’t think it’s far off to view him as an elite tight end when you’re considering whether to start him in your fantasy lineups. He’s not the world’s most exciting play, but he runs a ton of routes and has a locked-in goal line role.
The last time we saw Alexander Mattison was Week 5 against the Lions, and he went 25-113-0 on the ground with 7-40-1 on seven targets. Mattison isn’t better than Dalvin Cook, but this is a classic case of the backup running back having a better workload than the starter... because Mattison doesn’t have a talented backup to contend with. The Vikings’ Week 5 victory over the Lions was far too close, but we can’t be surprised if Mike Zimmer dusts off the same run-heavy game plan. If he does, the Lions won’t have an answer for Mattison. And even if the Vikings take a more balanced approach, Mattison is poised for a high target share. Only Jonathan Taylor is a meaningfully better play this week.
Lions Implied Team Total: 19.75
Jared Goff was horribly inaccurate while dealing with an oblique injury against the Steelers, ranking 24th in CPOE. He was far better in his Week 12 return, ranking third in CPOE. But Week 12 was a microcosm of the season for Goff. While he was accurate, he wasn’t efficient, ranking 20th in EPA per play. For the season, he ranks 19th in CPOE and 34th in EPA per play. Goff’s efficiency is likely unsustainably bad, given his accuracy. So he should have at least some positive regression on the way now that he appears to be healthy again.
This week he gets a defense ranked eighth in EPA allowed per dropback, 17th in pass-rush grade, and 16th in coverage grade. The Vikings are a solid pass defense, but not good enough to rule out some positive regression for Goff. However, even if Goff plays well this week, it’s likely to be on limited volume.
Teams are shifting 2% to the run against the Vikings in PROE. Given that the Vikings rank 25th in run defense grade and dead last in EPA allowed per rush, it’s surprising that they aren’t causing an even more significant shift.
The Lions are likely to fully play to the matchup here. Recently, they’ve shown a profound desire to limit Goff’s volume as much as humanly possible. They rank 28th in pass rate over expected at -5%. And their season-long rates understate the fact that the Lions have made an Eagles-like shift to the run in recent weeks.
Jamaal Williams will be leading the backfield this week and should handle a sizeable workload. We’ve seen Swift receive as much as 93% of snaps this year, so the Lions clearly don’t have a problem feeding one running back. And with Swift playing only 20% of snaps last week, Williams had a season-high 63% snap share.
Williams hasn’t been bad this season. He ranks RB29 in success/attempt, which is well above Swift. And he ranks a very respectable RB20 in YPRR. But Williams doesn’t offer any of the big-play ability that has made Swift a star despite dire offensive circumstances. As a result, even an every-down role in a good matchup makes him just a high-end RB2.
T.J. Hockenson leads the Lions with a 21% target share and a 23% air yard share, but he had yet to post 100+ yards all season. And over his last three games, his total receiving line is 9-86-1 on 11 targets. Nevertheless, he’s in the mix as a low-end TE1 as a bet that the Lions play from behind throughout.
Eagles at Jets, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Eagles Implied Team Total: 25.75
Jalen Hurts is coming off an awful game against the Giants, where he ranked 29th in EPA per play and 28th in CPOE. But, as brutal as Week 12 was, it wasn’t that much worse than how’s he’s played all season. Hurts ranks 26th in EPA per play and 32nd in CPOE.
He now gets a soothing Jets defense ranked 30th in EPA allowed per dropback, 15th in pass rush grade, and 30th in coverage grade. And the Jets could provide a significant boost to Hurts’ downfield production.
Hurts loves to throw deep, ranking third in deep ball percentage. But he isn’t actually very good at the deep ball, ranking a lowly 30th in adjusted completion percentage. Fortunately, the Jets are a trainwreck against deep passes. New York is allowing 15+ yard passes on 20% of attempts which is the highest rate in the NFL.
If Hurts can connect deep at a higher rate, it could mean huge things for DeVonta Smith. Smith has a route rate of 90%+ in each of his last four games and has racked up a total of 341 air yards. A few weeks ago, Smith had three TDs over his previous two games, and it looked like he was becoming a locked-in WR1. But Smith has a 14.7 aDOT. He’s a genuine deep threat and will be volatile. By the same token, don’t forget about his upside now that he’s totaled 6-83-0 over his last two games. Smith is set up to get back on track this week.
As good as Smith has been this season, Dallas Goedert leads the team with a 1.90 YPRR. He’s running very hot with a 10.4 YPT, and Smith definitely has the higher ceiling. But Goedert also deserves patience after his 6-62-0 line over the last two weeks. Goedert has an 8.6 aDOT, which is deep for a tight end. So if Hurts attacks the Jets’ weaknesses downfield, Goedert should get in on the fun.
The simplest way for the Jets to limit the Eagles’ passing game is by continuing to play abysmal run defense. The Jets rank 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in run defense grade. The Eagles couldn’t be happier about it.
Philadelphia has a -5% pass rate over expected and is tied with the Saints and Lions for 28th in the league. Only the Titans and 49ers are more run-heavy. It’s been a wild transformation for a team that started the year extremely pass-heavy.
Both Miles Sanders and Boston Scott missed practice time this week. But Sanders, at least, looks ready to go for Sunday. If Scott isn’t fully healthy, it will be a big boost to Sander’s fantasy value. Since Sanders returned from injury in Week 11, he has seen 46% and 33% of snaps. Granted, he was dealing with an ankle injury against the Giants. But Sanders returned to the game after tweaking his ankle. He appeared to be in a 50/50 split with Scott, at best, before the injury. Scott ranks RB21 in expected points per game over the last two weeks, with Sanders at RB38. If their combined workload condenses to Sanders, he profiles as a low-end RB1 in this matchup. But assuming Scott is active, both look like middling RB2 options.
Jets Implied Team Total: 19.25
Zach Wilson ranks 36th (dead last) in EPA per play and 35th in CPOE. He’s had a dreadful rookie season. Although, even after last week’s dud against the Texans, he’s only been putrid in half of his previous four games. So maybe there’s a tiny sliver of hope this week.
Wilson faces a solid Eagles defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, third in pass rush grade, and 18th in coverage grade. But... fortunately for Wilson, the Eagles don’t blitz.
Philadelphia ranks 30th in blitz rate, ahead of only the Colts and Raiders. Meanwhile, Wilson has been a disaster against the blitz. He is tied with Trevor Lawrence for dead last in the league with a 4.7 YPA against the blitz, and he ranks dead last in passer rating. Wilson is still bad when not blitzed, ranking 20th in YPA and 36th in passer rating. But while Wilson is a lock to play poorly this week, the lack of a blitz could allow him to hit Elijah Moore for a few big plays.
Moore had a season-high 96% route rate in Week 12, and with Corey Davis likely out this week and Keelan Cole ruled out with Covid, Moore looks set for another week as an every snap player.
Last week I mentioned that Wilson and Moore have had a laughably poor connection this year: “Moore had a 3.0 YPT from Week 1-7; he’s at 12.0 since. Betting against YPT is almost always the sharp move, but Wilson’s return still makes me a bit queasy.” Their issues continued in Week 12, with Moore turning in an elite 30% target rate but a very poor 5.8 YPT. Nevertheless, Moore still looks like a solid FLEX option, as a bet that Wilson can find him deep once or twice.
We thought that Week 12 might be Ty Johnson week. But with Michael Carter out of the lineup, the Jets introduced us to Austin Walter. Walter handled 24% of snaps and 29% of backfield attempts. He also took 6-of-7 red zone carries. Tevin Coleman led the backfield with 47% of snaps and 52% of backfield attempts but was useless without the goal line work.
Meanwhile, Johnson was relegated to a 34% snap share and 19% of backfield attempts, and he saw just one target.
Walter played reasonably well, so I don’t hold it against him... but he’s currently sapping this backfield of any fantasy relevance. Hopefully, he plays well enough going forward to take over Tevin Coleman‘s early-down workload.
Cardinals at Bears, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Cardinals Implied Team Total: 25.75
This season, Kyler Murray has been the most accurate quarterback in the league, ranking first in CPOE. His mix of mobility, accuracy, and weaponry sets him up for an explosive return to the lineup. Murray is having an excellent season, ranking fifth in EPA per play. But if he’s fully healthy, he has the potential to increase his efficiency even further.
The Bears rank 16th in EPA allowed per dropback, 18th in pass rush grade, and 25th in coverage grade. And quietly, the Bears’ defense is likely overrated due to their schedule. The Bears faced the Lions twice this season, and Detroit was better than their season-long EPA averages on both occasions. The Bears aren’t a disaster on defense. They’ve also played well in some tough matchups—but Murray won’t have much trouble against them if healthy.
The Cardinals will also have DeAndre Hopkins back on the field, barring a setback with his hamstring injury. But before we get to Hopkins, it’s important to note that he will be entering a slightly different receiving landscape than the one he left.
A.J. Green had a 95% route rate in Week 8 with Hopkins out. And Green had an 85%+ route in every game to that point in the season. But Green missed Week 9 and has seen route rates of 77% and 64% in his two games since.
This shift has come as Christian Kirk has started playing clearly ahead of Green. Over the last two games, Kirk saw route rates of 91% and 83%. From Weeks 1-8, Kirk had an 80%+ route rate just twice.
Kirk has been predominately a slot receiver over the last two weeks, seeing 72% and 62% of his snaps there. But Kirk used to be a full-time slot receiver. Through Week 8, he saw at least 81% snaps there in every game and played 90%+ in the slot on four occasions. So while Kirk still plays plenty in the slot, he’s also moving to the outside, limiting Green’s snaps. Kirk has totaled just 9-78-0 over his last two games, but his usage is very bullish for his value going forward. With Hopkins back in the lineup, he’ll likely spend a bit more time in the slot. And if he continues running a full complement of routes, he’s arguably the most valuable Cardinals wide receiver.
Meanwhile, Green isn’t just losing snaps to Kirk; he’s also played behind Antoine Wesley, who has route rates of 80% and 72% over the last two weeks (3% and 8% higher better than Green). As a result, green looks like an extremely risky bet this week, with his role in real question.
In Hopkins’ absence, Zach Ertz has emerged as functionally the Cardinals’ WR2. He’s had route rates of 83% and 81%. Before Week 9, Maxx Williams’ peak route rate was 61%, and Ertz’s was 58%.
With Hopkins back, the most likely outcome is for Ertz to run fewer routes, as Kirk sees his slot snaps tick up. But it’s possible that Kirk continues to play a true inside/outside role, which would allow Ertz to run 70%+ routes.
That is, unless... Rondale Moore is slated to see a role increase out of the Cardinals’ bye. When Hopkins was injured in Week 8, Moore saw his route rate jump to 73%, and with both Hopkins and Green out in Week 9, he was at 87%. But outside of those games, Moore has peaked at 59%. So while it’s possible he could see additional playing time this week, I’m waiting to see it first.
So... how does Hopkins fit in? Overall, the new landscape looks slightly more bullish for Hopkins. Hopkins had just an 18% target rate before the injury, barely ahead of Green’s 17%. If Green’s role has indeed been reduced, that is a good thing for Nuk. Green is good enough to steal target share but not good enough to meaningfully hurt the offense by not being on the field. Meanwhile, Antoine Wesley is a Jalen Guyton-level cardio specialist with a 10% target rate. Despite running a 4.68 40 at his pro day, Wesley is operating as a deep threat. And while part of me can’t help but feel like Kliff Kingsbury is actively screwing with us, I say we just roll with it. Every Wesley route increases the target potential for Hopkins and Kirk.
James Conner could be in at his last week as the Cardinals’ workhorse, with Chase Edmonds potentially back in Week 14. It could be his only chance to lead the backfield with Murray under center. Conner isn’t an explosive rusher, ranking just RB41 in breakaway percentage. And he’s not the most consistent rusher either, ranking RB34 in success/attempt. But he makes people miss and is a capable receiver, ranking RB14 in elusive rating and RB26 in YPRR. That combination is more than enough when it comes with an 82% snap share, as Conner has had over his last three games. He now gets a Bears defense that ranks RB22 in EPA allowed per rush. As 7.5 point favorites, the Cardinals could be using Conner to salt this game away. He profiles as a solid RB1 play.
Bears Implied Team Total: 18.25
Justin Fields ranks 30th in EPA per play but will miss this game due to cracked ribs. Andy Dalton is 11th in EPA per play. Even if Fields were healthy it would make sense if the Bears thought that Dalton gave them a better chance to win.
It would sense... because they’re the Bears. Dalton ranks 29th in CPOE this season. He’s been less accurate than Fields (26th in CPOE) and offers none of Fields’ mobility. He’s been efficient because he’s running extremely hot on efficiency due to plays like this:
.@Darnell_M1 60 YARDS FOR THE TOUCHDOWN!!! 🙌#BALvsCHI | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/Vb1Jt6nlen
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 21, 2021
Dalton has been playing well above where we would expect based on his accuracy. Given the matchup, he could get exposed here in a big way.
The Cardinals rank second in EPA allowed per dropback, fourth in pass rush grade, and seventh in coverage grade. They’ve also played a middle-of-the-road schedule and do not look like a paper tiger.
Allen Robinson is likely out again, leaving Darnell Mooney as the Bears’ clear WR1. Mooney has a 27% target share and a 36% air yard share this season. Interestingly, Mooney only had a 22% target share and a 33% air yard share with Robinson out on Thanksgiving. But Mooney has an impressive 1.95 YPRR this season and is a good bet to soak up additional target share this week. This matchup makes him a risky bet, but he’s still a solid FLEX option.
Cole Kmet benefitted from Robinson’s absence in Week 12, seeing a season-high 30% target rate. Kmet also ran a route on 84% of dropbacks, which was only his second time with an 80%+ route rate. Kmet can be expected to be in a full-time role again, but he has a 19% target rate this season and is a poor bet to be anywhere near his Week 12 target volume.
Since returning from injury, David Montgomery has an 88% snap share and has handled 83% of backfield touches. Unfortunately, he’s seen just a 6% target share. No other Bears running backs have been targeted over the last four weeks. The Bears simply aren’t throwing to the running back at a high rate. Facing the sixth-ranked Cardinals in EPA allowed per rush and without a reliable receiving workload, Montgomery looks like a usage-based RB2.
Chargers at Bengals, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Chargers Implied Team Total: 23.75
Justin Herbert is having a good season, ranking ninth in EPA per play. But week-to-week, it’s been hard to get a handle on him. Herbert has four top 10 weekly finishes in EPA per play and four 20+ finishes. His efficiency has been all over the place.
If you had to bet on which Herbert was going to show up in a given week, the safer bet at this point... is bad Herbert. He ranks just 20th in CPOE, and his inaccuracy will likely lead to more disappointing days this season. But Herbert should be helped out this week by the matchup.
At first glance, the Bengals seem like a tough draw. They rank seventh in EPA allowed per dropback. But PFF is far less impressed with them and has them 22nd in pass rush grade and 14th in coverage grade. PFF’s assessment is likely to be more accurate than the Bengals’ current defensive efficiency because the Bengals have had the luxury of beating up on bad teams. As I noted last week: “The Bengals have played a cupcake schedule that includes the Lions, Jets, and Jaguars—literally the three worst teams in the NFL in EPA per dropback.” They’ve also played the 25th ranked Steelers twice. The Bengals have played excellently against ineffective passing offenses, which means something. They’re not a bad pass defense, but they’re likely mediocre.
The Bengals are also a pass funnel. Opponents are averaging a 2% PROE against them and are shifting 2% to the pass. This pass funnel effect should boost Herbert’s fantasy production and fits the Chargers’ offensive strengths.
Mike Williams has cooled off considerably after his hot start, with Keelan Allen firmly reasserting himself as the Chargers’ WR1. This becomes obvious when looking at each wide receivers’ weighted opportunity rating (WOPR)—a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer that is a weighted average of target share and air yard share.
While Williams is definitely behind Allen in target volume, he’s still an intriguing DFS play due to his ability to speed up games with long TDs. Williams has an 11.3 aDOT and, while not a pure deep threat, is a lot more likely than Allen to generate the long TDs needed to get Burrow throwing heavily on the other side of this game.
Allen has a borderline-elite 1.99 YPRR and a very strong 27% target share. He’s a locked-in WR1 play this week.
Jared Cook hasn’t had a 70%+ route rate since Week 8 and hasn’t had a 20%+ target rate since Week 6. He remains a true TD or bust option.
If the Bengals take advantage of the Chargers’ run funnel defense, this game could bog down, which will be bad news for all Chargers skill players—except, perhaps, Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is RB8 in expected points per game and should be just fine regardless of game environment, as long as the Bengals don’t get too carried away playing slowly if they are milking a lead. Ekeler also has elite upside if this game hits its high ceiling. This game could dud, but the betting market clearly sees the upside, and it’s currently tied for the highest total of the week.
Bengals Implied Team Total: 26.75
Joe Burrow is quietly having an incredible season. A few weeks ago, there was nothing quiet about it, but the Bengals have faced three run funnels in a row and have played the matchups.
They now get the run funnel. Teams are averaging a -5% PROE against the Chargers and shifting 6% to the run. They are the biggest run funnel in the league.
But the Chargers aren’t a run funnel because they have a shutdown pass defense... they’re just awful against the run. Their pass defense is plenty vulnerable as well, though. The Chargers rank 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Burrow ranks seventh in EPA per play and third in CPOE, and he’s facing a weak pass defense. He has a clear path to a big game. The problem is that he will likely need the Chargers to push him in order to get there.
The Chargers rank sixth in situation-neutral pace, fifth in situation-neutral pass rate, and third in pass rate over expected. If they can put up points, they’re likely to speed up the game while also setting up Burrow to respond through the air. And with the Chargers ranking just 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, Burrow should be effective if this game environment arises.
If Burrow truly gets going, Ja’Marr Chase seems almost certain to have a big day. Chase leads the team with an elite 2.46 YPRR and 42% air yard share. Like Williams, Chase is an exciting DFS play because he scores quickly. If Chase has a big day, he’s likely getting there in an environment where the Chargers are also putting up points. There are paths to failure if the Bengals can run the ball effectively, but you can’t argue with the ceiling.
Tee Higgins finally had a breakout game in Week 12, but he’s still running cold with an 8.4 YPT. So Week 12 was a flash of what he’s capable of, not necessarily the total payoff. Higgins is tied with Chase with a 24% target share and has a very strong 23% target rate for his 11.9 aDOT. He looks like a boom/bust WR2.
Tyler Boyd has a 1.42 YPRR and looks to be a low upside option. If this game shoots out, it’s most likely getting there because Chase or Higgins went off. Nevertheless, Boyd is in play as a FLEX option as a bet that the game gets nutty.
Joe Mixon is coming off a career-high 29 carries and now gets a Chargers defense that ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush. However, Mixon will need to be efficient to generate a big day because Cincinnati plays slowly. The Bengals rank 30th in situation-neutral pace. When they get things rolling on the ground, their games are at serious risk of reduced play volume. This week, Mixon has an elite ceiling, but he looks far more fragile than Austin Ekeler on the other side of this game. Mixon has a solid but sub-elite 12% target share this season. If the bar is him having a solid fantasy outing, he’s not game script dependent. But he needs a specific game environment and touchdowns to generate an elite fantasy day.
Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 30.5
Tom Brady is having a great year; he ranks eighth in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE. But Brady has been a bit shaky recently. He’s had two of his least efficient outings over the last three weeks
Fortunately, Brady now gets a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback and earned that distinction while facing the second easiest passing schedule in the league. Seven of Atlanta’s 11 games gave come against bottom-11 passing offenses: the Eagles, Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, and Jaguars. It should be no surprise that the Buccaneers put up 48 points the last time they faced each other.
Mike Evans had a 100% route rate against the Colts, with Chris Godwin at 97%, but the two combined for 7-40-0. Rob Gronkowski ate up the majority of volume with a 27% target share and a 30% target rate. And Leonard Fournette was heavily involved as well, with a 24% target share and 28% target rate.
This season, Godwin still has a 1.80 YPRR, but he’s running hot with a 9.5 YPT, which is well above expectations for his 8.0 aDOT. He’s a solid WR2 option, given Brady’s likelihood of moving the ball efficiently against the Falcons.
Evans, likewise, looks like a solid WR2 this week. He has a mediocre 1.57 YPRR, but he’s running cold with an 8.8 YPT on his 13.6 aDOT. He can get right this week with some big plays downfield, which there could be a few of, considering that the Falcons are allowing 15+ yard passes at the sixth-highest rate. Evan also has a clear red zone role and looks like a higher upside option than Godwin.
Week 12 was very bullish for Gronkowski and Fournette moving forward. Gronkowski had an 83% route rate, his first time above 74% all season, and a massive increase from his 56% route rate in Week 11. Gronkowski’s usage increase was a great sign for both his health and his ceiling moving forward. With Antonio Brown now suspended for three games, Gronkowski looks locked into a full-time role once again.
Fournette didn’t set a season-high in route rate, but he got damn close. His 81% route rate was just behind his season-high 82% from Week 4, and it was just his second time posting a route rate over 62% this season. Fournette also handled 81% of snaps and 71% of backfield attempts. That usage allowed him to lead all running backs with 32 expected points in Week 12. He looks like a true workhorse RB1.
Given the Buccaneers’ playoff ambitions, Fournette’s most realistic path to failure is a Buccaneers blowout win. That’s a slightly concerning possibility with the Buccaneers as 10.5 point favorites. But Fournette can easily be the conduit through which they establish the lead and looks like a borderline-elite RB1 play this week.
Falcons Implied Team Total: 20
Matt Ryan is having a solid season, ranking 16th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. And he now gets a Buccaneers defense tied with the Falcons defense for 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
But while the Falcons defense looks overrated due to a soft schedule, the Buccaneers defense looks underrated. Tampa Bay has been absolutely dominant at times, particularly against the Bears in Week 7, but they’ve also shown very well against the Giants, Eagles, and Patriots. The Buccaneers are somewhat vulnerable through the air, but they’ve shown flashes of being a high-end unit.
The Buccaneers are a blitz-heavy team, which may help explain their up and down performances. Only the Dolphins have blitzed at a higher rate than the Buccaneers. And only the Bills and Dolphins rank higher in pressure rate.
Ryan has not been good against the blitz this season. He ranks QB32 in passer rating and QB27 in yards per attempt. There’s a bit of hope in his numbers under pressure where he ranks QB14 in passer rating and QB20 in YPA, but he still hasn’t been great. Moreover, the Buccaneers rank fifth in PFF’s coverage grades, so they should be able to cover downfield while harassing Ryan. Ryan could be in for a long day.
Kyle Pitts has run a route on 82% of dropbacks and has a 1.92 YPRR fully supported by his target profile. He’s having a remarkable year for a rookie tight end. At the same time, Pitts has a high of 62 yards since Week 8 and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 5... which is his only TD all season. Pitts’ rookie season has been an excellent sign for his long-term fantasy value, but for this week, he looks like a mid TE1.
Qadree Ollison missed Week 12 with an illness. This seems to have gone under the radar, with many assuming he was a healthy scratch. He was not, and we shouldn’t forget Arthur Smith’s comments ahead of Week 12 that Ollison “earned the right for more carries.”
Of course, plans may have changed following Cordarrelle Patterson‘s 16-108-2 rushing line in Week 12. Patterson saw a season-high in carries against the Jaguars, and Smith must have liked what he saw.
But Patterson also played just 48% of snaps in Week 12 and played just six combined snaps out-wide or in the slot, his lowest since Week 3. Patterson is incredibly versatile, to the point that he is now listed as a reserve safety on the Falcons’ depth chart. But he can only be in one place at a time.
I expect Ollison to be in an expanded role this week, allowing Patterson to operate as a receiver more frequently. If that’s the case, Patterson will be a riskier option this week than he was against the Jaguars but would still have access to a high-end RB1 ceiling.
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Jaguars at Rams, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 17.25
Trevor Lawrence is having an awful rookie season. Last week he faced a poor Falcons defense and finished just 19th in EPA per play. For the season, he ranks 31st in EPA per play 34th in CPOE.
Lawrence now gets a Rams defense ranked 12 in EPA allowed per dropback, first in pass rush grade, and 10th in coverage grade. The Rams aren’t a shutdown pass defense, but they’re a far more difficult matchup than the Falcons, and Lawrence is unlikely to be passing from a position of strength.
As 13 points underdogs, the Jaguars are likely to continuously operate in obvious passing situations. But even when the situation is ambiguous, Lawrence is unlikely to benefit. The Jaguars rank 28th in situation-neutral pass rate and 21st in pass rate over expected on 1st-and-10. They’re likely to run the ball early in the game while the Rams build a lead and then feed Lawrence to the Rams’ pass rush in the second half. It’s not a good plan.
Dan Arnold, the Jaguars TE/WR1, is likely done for the season. This elevates James O’Shaughnessy to starting tight end... and honestly makes him the most exciting piece of this passing offense. If you’re curious about the wide receivers here, let’s just say that Laquon Treadwell tied for the lead in targets last week and leave it at that.
O’Shaughnessy ran a route on 82% of dropbacks, with Arnold at 9%. He’s very likely to have an 80%+ route rate, which is valuable at the tight end position, even on a bad offense in a tough matchup.
James Robinson is trending towards missing this game, which puts Carlos Hyde in line for an elite snap share. The last time we saw Hyde as Jacksonville’s lead back, he handled 79% of snaps and 95% of backfield touches. The Rams rank 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in run defense grade, so they can be run on. With Jacksonville likely trailing throughout, Hyde won’t be lighting up the Rams, but he has a path to being moderately efficient. And the 13% target share he flashed in Week 9 gives him a high enough floor to rely on him as a usage-based RB2 here.
If Robinson plays, the situation is a bit murkier. Robinson has handled just 57% of snaps since returning from injury. However, he’s handled 84% of backfield attempts with a 12% target share, so he’s definitely in the RB2 mix. He just won’t have a complete lock on the backfield, especially at less than full health.
Rams Implied Team Total: 30.25
Matthew Stafford is in the middle of a severe slump. From Weeks 1-8, he ranked first in EPA per play. Since Week 9, Stafford ranks 37th in EPA per play. Only Trevor Siemian has been worse.
Stafford has been dealing with injuries, which have clearly affected his play. But that’s not enough to explain how the most efficient quarterback in the league turned into one of the league’s worst passers.
But... that’s not really what happened. Both Stafford’s highs and lows look highly influenced by variance. From Weeks 1-8, Stafford ranked 20th in CPOE. He was less accurate than Jared Goff over that span but was leading the league in efficiency... that’s the definition of running hot. Since Week 9, Stafford ranks 28th in CPOE. He’s still been less accurate than Jared Goff, but now he’s throwing pick-sixes like Buccaneers-era Jameis Winston. This is also unsustainable.
And, it’s worth keeping in mind that the good far outweighs the bad this year. Stafford still ranks third in EPA per play. He’s unlikely to be highly accurate this week, given that he ranks 22nd in CPOE. But he can quickly get back on track in this matchup.
The Jaguars rank 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass rush grade, and 24th in coverage grade. They’ve had a difficult schedule but have also provided very little resistance against opposing passing games. They are a legitimately bad pass defense. Opponents recognize this and are shifting 2% to the pass, making the Jaguars a moderate pass funnel.
The Rams won’t have to be asked twice. They have a 5% pass rate over expected that trails only the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bills, and Chargers; and they rank third in situation-neutral pass rate. The Rams also lead the league in situation-neutral pace. Facing a weak, pass funnel defense, they have the potential to put up a ton of points through the air.
Cooper Kupp regressed a bit in Week 12... he also had a strong game with a 7-96-0 line on 10 targets. Kupp still has a 3.00 YPRR this year, which is wildly good for a sample size of 400+ routes. He’s set up for another spike week here.
I was skeptical that Odell Beckham would see a huge increase in his route rate in Week 12, and... boy was I wrong. Beckham ran a route on 98% of dropbacks against the Packers. With Beckham now installed as an every snap player, he looks set up for a strong week.
Beckham has target rates of 27% and 23% with the Rams. Stafford is looking for him, and he might have more upside than Robert Woods did, with a 14.5 aDOT. Granted, Beckham has a tiny sample with the Rams, but aDOT tends to reflect a receiver’s skillset, and Beckham had a nearly identical 14.3 aDOT with the Browns this year. He may never have as complete a handle on the Rams offense as Woods, but his role gives him more big-play upside.
Van Jefferson is also operating as a deep threat, with an aDOT of 14.3. However, he has just a 1.56 YPRR, which aligns with his target profile. He’s essentially a poor man’s Beckham. So it could be challenging for him to earn targets with Beckham literally across the field. Although, Beckham’s status for Sunday is a bit up in the air. Jefferson is far more attractive as a poor man’s Beckham if Beckham is out of the game.
Darrell Henderson is also questionable for Sunday. If he goes, he looks like a mid-RB1 against a Jaguars defense ranked 28th in EPA allowed per rush. If Henderson can’t go, Sony Michel will likely see similar usage to his Week 3 spot start, when he handled 74% of snaps, 95% of backfield touches, and had an 11% target share. Michel lost third down snaps to Jake Funk in Week 3, so this is unlikely to be an Alexander Mattison situation where the backup can be projected for a better workload than the starter. But Michel still looks like a strong RB2 this week if Henderson can’t play.
Washington at Raiders, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Washington Implied Team Total: 24.25
Taylor Heinicke is on a tear. He ranks 17th in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE, which is nice. But since Week 9, Heinicke ranks third in EPA per play and leads the league in CPOE.
Washington has been doing all they can to get Heinicke going this season, and it’s nice to see it paying such huge dividends. They rank 10th in pass rate over expected on 1st-and-10, fifth in run/pass option percentage, second in play-action rate, and sixth in motion rate. Washington is willing to use any trick in the book to put Heinicke in a better position as a passer. In fact, they also rank fourth in trick look plays, despite ranking 18th in actual trick plays.
While Washington has done an admirable job maximizing Heinicke’s efficiency, they’re also scaling back his volume. Washington appears to be making a concerted shift to the run since their Week 9 bye.
This formula has been a distinct success. Since their bye, Washington is 3-0, with wins over the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Seahawks. They’ll clearly be looking to maintain the same approach against the Raiders. And fortunately, this matchup sets up perfectly for them. Raiders opponents are averaging a -2% PROE and are shifting 3% to the run. Only the Panthers and Chargers are bigger run funnels.
The Raiders aren’t terrible against the run and have likely become a run funnel due to their opponents attempting to avoid their elite pass rush. Las Vegas ranks second in pass rush grade and fourth in pressure rate. But the Raiders definitely provide opportunities on the ground, ranking 17th in EPA allowed per rush and 19th in run defense grade. With Washington likely to be run-heavy, and J.D. McKissic out this week, Antonio Gibson is set up for a big game.
Gibson nearly had a massive Week 12. He finished RB2 in expected points with a 30.5 point workload. And that was with McKissic handling 39% of snaps. Jaret Patterson saw just 4% of snaps, 2% of backfield attempts and ran a single route. Ron Rivera has indicated that Wendell Smallwood will be active and in a version of the McKissic role, but his usage is unlikely to be in the same ballpark.
Gibson looks set to handle 75%+ of snaps, and crucially, have a clear lead in receiving duties for the first time all season. Even with McKissic running a route on 42% of dropbacks, Gibson’s 47% route rate was still his highest since Week 1—he should be well over 60% this week. And those extra routes won’t go to waste. Gibson has a 1.25 YPRR this season. He’s well below McKissic’s 1.81, but Gibson ranks a respectable RB25 in YPRR. His usage has been limited because McKissic is RB6, not because Gibson isn’t capable as a receiver.
Gibson profiles as a borderline-elite RB1 play this week. That’s uncomfortable to write, given how badly he’s performed this season. But it’s hard to imagine a better opportunity.
Terry McLaurin leads the league in air yard share, and if Heinicke can keep up his efficient play, McLaurin should be the primary beneficiary. Unfortunately, McLaurin has continued to run cold on per-target efficiency even as his quarterback play has improved. He has an 8.3 YPT, which is well below expectations for his 13.5 aDOT. The Raiders aren’t an ideal setup for a breakout, but Heinicke’s play should eventually help him pop off for a big game.
Logan Thomas returned in Week 12 and ran a route on 68% of dropbacks. He will likely be back at a route rate of 80%+ this week as he returns to full health. Thomas has just a 1.15 YPRR this season, but an every-down role at the tight end position is a rare thing, and he looks like a high-end TE2 this week.
Raiders Implied Team Total: 24.75
Last week I mentioned that Derek Carr had been struggling without Henry Ruggs. He got back on track in a big way in Week 12, with his most efficient week of the season.
Carr now ranks 10th in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE. He’s having an impressive season, and the Raiders are pressing their advantage. Las Vegas ranks sixth in situation-neutral pass rate and eighth in pass rate over expected.
Greg Olsen is also doing a much better job setting up Carr for success than John Gruden. Carr has jumped from dead last in play action rate to 13th, and the Raiders have jumped from 4% to 8% in PROE on 1st-and-10. Only the Bills, Giants, Chargers, and Chiefs are at 8%+ this season. Passing off of play action and on 1st-and-10 are both simple and effective ways of improving passing efficiency, and it’s great to see Carr getting some intelligent coaching.
Carr is poised to continue his strong play against a Washington secondary ranked 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 28th in coverage grade. Washington ranks fifth in pass-rush grade but is generating pressure at the 15th highest rate, so their pass rush clearly isn’t a huge issue, especially with Chase Young out for the season.
Unsurprisingly, Washington remains a clear pass funnel. Opponents are averaging a 5% pass rate over expected and are shifting 3% to the pass. As a result, Carr should have some additional passing volume this week.
The Raiders’ thinned-out receiving corps is the main obstacle in the way of an efficient passing day. Darren Waller will miss this week, and Carr hasn’t connected with a deep threat like he did with Henry Ruggs earlier this season.
Even DeSean Jackson‘s impressive showing on Thanksgiving was driven by a 34.0 YPT. He saw just three targets, had just a 13% target rate, and ran a route on only 56% of dropbacks. That’s not to say that Jackson isn’t adding a critical element to the Raiders’ offense. With a 3.59 YPRR in Las Vegas and a 3.51 YPRR in Los Angeles this season, it’s pretty clear that Jackson can still hit big plays. But he can’t totally fill in for what Ruggs was providing downfield while playing limited snaps.
Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards ran routes on 72% and 67% of dropbacks, and neither is a true full-time player. Both have played very poorly this season, with 1.24 and 1.22 YPRR. It would make a ton of sense for Jackson’s role to increase, but he’s 35 years old, so it’s likely that the Raiders continue to limit his snaps.
Foster Moreau will fill in for Darren Waller this week and can be expected to have a major role in the offense. Moreau ran a route on 86% of dropbacks while filling in for Waller in Week 7 and ran a route on 63% of dropbacks on Thanksgiving, while Waller was limited to 26%.
Keep in mind that Moreau lacks Waller’s upside because he’s targeted far more shallowly. This season, Waller has a 10.5 aDOT and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He’s functionally an alpha wide receiver playing tight end. Moreau had a 5.7 aDOT in Week 7, with a 20% target rate; he had a 5.5 aDOT in Week 12, with a 15% target rate. Moreau is functionally a slot receiver playing tight end. Moreau is still quite valuable as a fill-in option—he’s just not Waller.
Hunter Renfrow is the best bet to lead the Raiders in targets. He has a 24% target rate and an impressive 1.99 YPRR. But Renfrow is dependent on very high passing volume or TDs to hit a ceiling due to his shallow 6.4 aDOT.
Josh Jacobs isn’t in an ideal game environment, but he still has a path to a nice game. Washington is a clear pass funnel, but they rank 26th in EPA allowed per rush. Jacobs is unlikely to have a huge workload, but he should be efficient on what he gets. Jacobs is a similar player to James Conner. He rarely delivers big plays, ranking RB47 in breakaway percentage. And his isn’t all that consistent, ranking RB36 in success/attempt. But Jacobs makes people miss and is a capable receiver, ranking RB17 in elusive rating and RB30 in YPRR. He looks like a solid RB2 this week.
Ravens at Steelers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Ravens Implied Team Total: 24
Lamar Jackson is having a mediocre-poor season as a passer, ranking 23rd in EPA per play and 21st in CPOE. Fortunately, he has 707 rushing yards in 10 games, ranking first among quarterbacks and eighth among all players.
Unfortunately, Jackson is trending in the wrong direction as a passer, with concerningly poor performances in his last two games and a four-week stretch of disappointing play.
His coaches seem worried enough that it’s affecting their playcalling. The Ravens had a 0% pass rate over expected through Week 7, but since their Week 8 bye, they’ve declined to -4%.
The Steelers’ defense shouldn’t be all that challenging for Jackson. They rank 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, sixth in pass rush grade, and 29th in coverage grade. They’re essentially a better version of Washington.
But whereas Washington is a pass funnel, the Steelers are actually a run funnel. Opponents are averaging a -3% PROE against them and are shifting 2% to the run, which makes sense since they rank 25th in EPA allowed per rush.
With Latavius Murray healthy, the Ravens’ running game is as strong as it’s going to get this season. But while it’s nice for the Ravens to have Murray back, his presence torches the value of this backfield. Murray trailed Devonta Freeman 44% to 49% in snaps and 32% to 64% in backfield touches. And as Ben Gretch noted in Stealing Signals, Freeman led 2-1 in carries inside the 10. Freeman is the back to start here if desperate, but this backfield should be avoided if at all possible. So if the Ravens do find success on the ground, it’s likely to hurt their passing volume without providing a fantasy-relevant running back option. You hate to see it.
Marquise Brown leads the Ravens with a 2.07 YPRR, and he’s actually running cold in with an 8.8 YPT. Brown has a 13.5 aDOT, and his big-play profile should be especially beneficial this week in a game environment that could be pretty gross.
Mark Andrews is second on the team in both route rate (81%) and YPRR (1.99). He has an elite tight end profile, and if the Ravens were trending up in passing volume instead of down, and if the Steelers were a pass funnel instead of a run funnel, he’d be an elite option this week.
Rashod Bateman saw his route rate decline to 58% in Week 12, with Samy Watkins at 47% and Devin Duvernay at 42%. If Bateman isn’t a full-time player, his path to delivering fantasy value this week is fragile. I’m excited about Bateman down the stretch, but this is a week to find another FLEX option if possible.
Steelers Implied Team Total: 20
Ben Roethlisberger ranks 25th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE. He’s playing terribly, but he does at least get a weak Ravens defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, 13th in pass rush grade, and 23rd in coverage grade. The problem for the Steelers is that they aren’t set up to challenge the Ravens where they’re weakest: down the field. The Ravens are giving up 15+ yard passes at the fourth-highest rate, but Roethlisberger ranks just 21st in deep throw percentage and 22nd in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws.
Not only is Roethlisberger a poor fit for attacking what the Ravens do worst... he’s a poor bet for surviving what the Ravens do best.
The Ravens blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, behind only the Dolphins and Buccaneers. Roethlisberger has been awful against the blitz, ranking 31st in YPA and 27th in passer rating. I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb by saying that it will be hard to watch Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday, but this offense could be even more gross than usual against the Ravens.
Even if Roethlisberger implodes, Diontae Johnson will continue to get his targets.
Diontae Johnson had a 35.9% target share today. He's hit the 30% mark 6 times this year. Wide receivers with 6 or more games with a 30%+ target share this year: Johnson, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 29, 2021
Johnson has a 28% target rate this season and a 30% target share. Despite a 9.6 aDOT, he has a borderline-elite 38% air yard share. It’s not an ideal setup for Johnson, but I’m not betting against him to get his looks.
Chase Claypool is only slightly behind Johnson with a 1.91 YPRR to Johnson’s 2.14. He has a 20% target share and a 21% target rate, so he’s seeing a fraction of Johnson’s target volume. But he gets targeted downfield with a 13.2 aDOT, and he actually makes plays... from Ben Roethlisberger. The kid is a star.
Pat Freiermuth had a 75% route rate without Eric Ebron in the lineup, which is strong but not elite. And while he scored a TD, he also delivered a poor 1.21 YPRR. Overall, Freiermuth has a 1.31 YPRR this year. He’s run a bit cold in YPT, and I expect that to increase slightly. But he’s also run extremely hot with six TDs this year. As a result, he looks like a mid-TE2 this week.
Last week I noted that Najee Harris’ routes and target share are both trending down, which continued to be the case in Week 12.
There was a time when it looked like Harris would be mostly immune to Pittsburgh’s offensive woes, like a lesser version of Christian McCaffrey. But Harris profiles more like Leonard Fournette at this point. If everything were to fall into place, he could deliver elite value, but that’s not the situation he finds himself in. Harris left 4.7 points on the field against the Bengals and has left 38.4 points on the field this season, which is last in the league. The Ravens rank fourth in EPA allowed per rush, so even if Roethlisberger doesn’t meltdown, it’s not an ideal spot for Harris. He profiles as a usage-based RB2.
49ers at Seahawks, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total: 24.25
Jimmy Garoppolo is having a hell of a season, ranking fourth in EPA per play. There are a couple of reasons to be skeptical of his play, however. First, Garoppolo ranks just 16th in CPOE. Like we’ve seen with Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert, even with good coaching, this type of discrepancy can be an indicator of future meltdown performances. Second, the 49ers are clearly attempting to limit Garoppolo’s dropbacks. The 49ers have a -7% pass rate over expected, tied with the Titans for lowest in the league; their -8% PROE on 1st-and-10 ranks ahead of only the Falcons and Titans; they also rank 30th in situation-neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Titans and Lions.
Fortunately, the Seahawks rank just 19th in EPA allowed per dropback and do not look like a defense that will expose Garoppolo. The Seahawks offense is also playing poorly and is unlikely to push the 49ers. With Pete Carroll gunning for a respectable loss, the 49ers should be able to implement their usual run-heavy attack while mixing in an efficient passing game.
With Deebo Samuel out, it will be fascinating to see if Brandon Aiyuk or perhaps even Jauan Jennings handles any of Samuel’s backfield looks. I doubt that anyone will be in an actual Samuel-esque role, but one or both of the receivers could see a Robert Woods-style bump in rushing usage. Aiyuk seems like the likelier option, and this may be the final test to see if he’s fully exited Shanahan’s doghouse.
Although, to be honest, Aiyuk doesn’t need a change in role. With Samuel operating as a running back over the last two weeks, Aiyuk turned in 3.45 and 3.50 YPRR, with 29% and 23% target rates. He’s been in a WR1 role, and keeping that is more valuable than operating as a glorified satellite back. There’s unlikely to be a ton of passing volume this week, but Aiyuk still looks like a WR2.
George Kittle will operate as the team’s TE/WR2. And although he’s struggled over the last two weeks, he has a very strong 1.99 YPRR this season and should see some additional target share with the target tree condensed. He’s a locked-in elite TE1.
The focal point of the 49ers attack will be the rushing game, and that rushing attack will continue to revolve around rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell played 70% of snaps in Week 12, which shouldn’t be a shock. Kyle Shanahan has favored him all season. But Mitchell also saw a 23% target share... which is a genuine shock and well above his previous season-high.
With this kind of receiving upside, Mitchell looks like a high-end RB1. Mithcell finished fifth in expected points against the Vikings and played efficiently with two points over expected. However, Mitchell has a 0.94 YPRR, and we should expect his receiving usage to regress considerably. Even still, Mitchell flashed enough that Shanahan may not be worried about putting one of his wide receivers in the backfield; he could have plays drawn up for Mitchell instead.
Seahawks Implied Team Total: 21.25
After another depressingly inefficient week, Russell Wilson is down to 27th in EPA per play. Wilson has been dreadful since returning from his finger surgery, ranking 33rd in EPA per play, down from 10th in Weeks 1-5. Wilson has also been robbed of his superpower: his accuracy. From 2012-2020 Wilson led the league in CPOE. This year, he ranked second in Weeks 1-5. Since returning from injury, he ranks 29th. The finger clearly still affecting him.
If Wilson is going to return to form this season, this would be a good spot for it. The 49ers rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, 24th in pass rush grade, and 14th in coverage grade. The 49ers have had a somewhat difficult schedule and aren’t total pushovers, but vintage Russ would have no trouble in this spot.
It doesn’t feel like it, but Tyler Lockett has an elite 2.30 YPRR. If Wilson was healthy and if the Seahawks actually ran plays, he would look like an incredible play this week. DK Metcalf isn’t far behind with 2.03 YPRR, and Metcalf actually has the more sustainable target profile, with a 23% target rate to Lockett’s 20%. In an ideal world, both players would be locked-in WR1s. Given the state of the Seahawks, they’re high-end FLEX plays.
DeeJay Dallas led Seattle in Week 12 with 60% of snaps and a 16% target share, but he now faces competition from Travis Homer, who is practicing in full. Alex Collins handled 70% of backfield touches against Washington but now faces competition from Rashaad Penny, who is also practicing in full. This backfield is best avoided.
Broncos at Chiefs, 8:20 PM Eastern, Sunday
Teddy Bridgewater has made a very strong recovery from his early-season slump and is up to 14th in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE.
He now gets a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback, 29th in pass rush grade, and 12th in coverage grade. Bridgewater doesn’t have much of a ceiling as a fantasy asset, but he can certainly bring a player or two along for the ride in a good matchup.
Jerry Jeudy has a borderline-elite 2.04 YPRR and is definitely the best bet for a strong day this week. But Courtland Sutton remains in play due to his downfield profile. Since Jeudy returned in Week 8, Sutton has posted target rates of 14%, 7%, 8%, and 14%. It has been far from ideal. But Sutton has run more routes than Jeudy in every game, and his 16.0 aDOT is significantly higher than Jeudy’s 8.7. This is a similar setup to the Chargers this week, with Jeudy as a superior Keenan Allen style play and Sutton as a Mike Williams style speed-the-game up DFS correlation option.
Noah Fant has a 1.33 YPRR and hasn’t had an 80%+ route rate since Week 7. But he looks like a high-end TE2 due to the matchup.
Tragically after the Broncos Week 11 bye, they did not increase Javonte Williams’ workload. He’d handled 46% of backfield carries heading into Week 12... and then handled 45% of backfield carries against the Chargers. But the Broncos won’t have much choice this week, with Melvin Gordon (hip) doubtful to play.
Even with a limited workload last week, Williams was a star in the plus matchup. He delivered a 14-54-1 rushing line and a 3-57-0 receiving line on four targets. Williams ranks RB6 in success/attempt, RB3 in breakaway percentage, and RB1 in elusive rating. With Gordon out, Williams profiles as a locked-in RB1 play.
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 28
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t fully recovered from his mid-season slump, but he’s made some progress over his last two games and now ranks sixth in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE.
Mahomes now gets a Broncos defense that ranks 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 25th in pass rush grade, and 21st in coverage grade. Last week, I posited that the Chargers could expose the Broncos as a terrible defense... they did not. Instead, Denver upset Los Angeles, and Herbert finished 23rd in EPA per play in Week 12. But the Broncos could still be in for a rough day against Patrick Mahomes. I’m admittedly torn on how much to buy into the Chief’s Cover-2 narrative... but we don’t have to worry about that narrative this week. The Broncos don’t play Cover-2.
Denver has played Cover-2 on just 1% of their snaps this season. Only the Browns are playing Cover-2 at a lower rate. Denver is also allowing the eighth highest rate of 15+ yard passes. In other words, Denver is likely to be in coverages that the Chiefs prefer to throw against and are vulnerable deep.
This sets up as a potential eruption game for Tyreek Hill. Much has been made of Hill’s declining aDOT this season. And his depth of target is, in fact, down. Hill’s 10.9 aDOT is his lowest since becoming a full-time player for the Chiefs in 2017. But Hill isn’t exactly an underneath option. He’s had weekly aDOTs of 13+ in five games this season, including in two of his last three games. If the Broncos are going to tempt the Chiefs to throw deep here, they will oblige, and Hill will be their primary method of attack. Hill has an elite 2.19 YPRR, and he’s running cold with a 7.8 YPT. As usual, he has the highest upside of any wide receiver this week.
Travis Kelce is beginning to resemble an underneath option. After having an aDOT of 8.9 or higher every year since 2017, he’s down to 7.7 this year. Over the last two weeks, he’s had aDOTs of 6.2 and 6.3. No one has stepped up to challenge him for the TE1 crown, but Kelce looks far shakier than he did last year. Fortunately, this looks like a potential spike week.
Denver ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per rush and could be quite vulnerable on the ground this week with their focus on Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. But Denver’s intensity of focus will need to hit “did you see the gorilla?” levels for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to catch them off guard.
We hoped Edwards-Helaire would be the Chiefs’ version of Christian McCaffrey; instead, he’s been a poor man’s Miles Sanders. Like Sanders, Edwards-Helaire is decently consistent, ranking RB24 in success/attempt. But both backs aren’t great at shedding tackles, with CEH ranking RB43 in elusive rating. Neither adds much value as a receiver, with CEH ranking a pitiful RB55 in YPRR. But while Sanders covers up for some of his weakness by ranking RB6 in breakaway percentage, Edwards-Helaire also rarely hits big plays, ranking RB46. Edwards-Helaire won’t embarrass himself as a rusher, but he isn’t actually very good at anything. He profiles as a usage-based RB2.
Patriots at Bills, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday
Patriots Implied Team Total: 20
Mac Jones ranks 15th in EPA per play, and he’s amid a striking uptrend.
It seems like Jones should be in store for some negative regression, but if anything... his season-long efficiency looks low for his elite accuracy. Jones ranks second in CPOE this season, behind only Kyler Murray.
This week will be Jones’ most challenging test since he faced the Panthers in Week 9. He finished 21st in EPA per play that week.
The Bills’ defense is hard to pin down. They rank first in EPA allowed per dropback and first in coverage grade. But they’ve played an absurdly easy schedule. Seven of the Bills’ 11 games have come against bottom-11 passing offenses: the Jets, Texans, Jaguars, Saints, Steelers, and Dolphins (twice). No pass defense has had an easier slate of matchups. Jones will be far more challenging than the majority of their opponents, and they’re now without CB Tre’Davious White, who tore his ACL in Week 12. I don’t expect a massive day from Jones or anything close to it, but he could support a weapon.
Despite Kendrick Bourne‘s recent success in finding the end zone, I’m not willing to buy into his 12.5 YPT, which is absurdly high for his 8.9 aDOT. He’s made some big plays, but he has a very similar target profile to Nelson Agholor.
Jakobi Meyers looks like the only FLEX-worthy option. He’s running cold with a 7.1 YPT, but his 22% target rate is good for his 9.6 aDOT. He’s not an exciting option, but he should earn some intermediate targets.
The easiest path to beating the Bills appears to be on the ground. They’ve surrendered 24+ points just twice all season, and both times it was to rushing powerhouses: the Derrick Henry era Titans and the Colts. The Bills rank third in EPA allowed per rush, so they’re not a terrible run defense by any means. But they’ve faced a very easy rushing schedule and have fared quite poorly on the ground at times. The Patriots are set up to test them, with the 10th ranked offense in EPA per rush and a backfield coming into its own as a 1-2 punch.
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have shared the backfield over the last two weeks and are dead even with a 49% share of backfield touches. This is as it should be, as both rushers are highly capable. Harris leads 4-3 in red zone carries and 38% to 34% in snap share and is the slightly better bet of the two. The frustrating part about this situation is that Brandon Bolden has continued working in for a 29% snap share and a 10% target share. While the Patriots’ backfield should be successful overall, it’s difficult to trust Harris or Stevenson as more than a low-end RB2 option.
Bills Implied Team Total: 22.5
Josh Allen ranks just 20th in EPA per play this year, but the Bills are still running the entire offense through him. They rank third in pass rate over expected, first in PROE on 1st-and-10, and first in situation-neutral pass rate.
However, the Bills did just post an uncharacteristic -1% PROE against the Saints on Thanksgiving. And they now face a Patriots team that is a clear run funnel.
Opponents are averaging a -3% pass rate over expected against the Patriots and are shifting 3% to the run. Only the Panthers and Chargers are causing a more significant shift.
The Patriots are a Raiders/Panthers style run funnel rather than a Chargers style run funnel. Meaning, teams are choosing to attack them on the ground to avoid their challenging pass defense rather than taking advantage of a weak run defense.
The Patriots rank fourth in EPA allowed per dropback and second in coverage grade. Their pass rush is graded at just 20th, but they’re still generating pressures at the 11th highest rate. So while the Patriots are a respectable eighth in EPA allowed per rush, the ground game is definitely the path of least resistance.
The Bills rank 30th in EPA per rush this season, and usually, I’d expect them to pass through the difficult matchup. But their attitude toward the run may have shifted a bit.
With Zack Moss a healthy scratch on Thanksgiving, Matt Breida was expected to see a bigger role. And while Breida did have a meaningful role in the offense with 32% of snaps and 38% of backfield attempts, Devin Singletary led the way. Singletary handled 68% of snaps and 63% of backfield attempts. Breida led 8% to 4% in target share and can serve as a desperation RB2 if Moss is scratched again. But Singletary is the more interesting RB2 play as a bet that the Bills take the bait on the Patriots’ run-funnel defense.
Stefon Diggs has an elite 25% target rate for his 11.9 aDOT, but he’ll be dealing with a Bill Belichick defense that will almost certainly be keying on him. That wasn’t a problem the last time they played, though. Diggs popped off for 9-145-3 in Week 16 last year. This year’s Patriots are likely to provide more of a challenge... but it is a reminder that some teams are quite capable of continuing to play right-handed against Belichick.
Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox all ran routes on 80%+ dropbacks against the Saints. As a result, the target tree looks crowded once again. Dawson Knox scored two TDs in Week 12, but Beasley’s five targets were second on the team, and he has quietly reemerged as a full member of this offense in his familiar role. He could be in for a solid game if the Bills are playing from behind this week.
Sources
To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from rbsdm.com
- QB accuracy metric
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
