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We want to know -- we need to know -- how defenses are being attacked.
Though it won’t translate perfectly from week to week, understanding which NFL defenses qualify as run funnels and which are pass funnels can and should change the way we create our daily fantasy lineups. Is a team’s stalwart run defense forcing opponents to the air at a remarkable rate? How about secondaries so dominant (or teams so bad) that opposing offenses are turning to the run more often than usual?
In this space, I’ll highlight which teams and players may benefit from squaring off against a run funnel or pass funnel defense in a given week, along with run-back options on the opposing team.
Analyzing pass and run funnel defenses can often generate DFS stacking ideas, both team stacks and game stacks. I’ll highlight stacking plays -- for DFS tournament purposes -- where I see fit. I’ve found evaluating run and pass funnels is an excellent starting point for exploiting matchups and crafting correlated lineups.
Chargers (-6) vs. Seahawks
We’re going back to the Seahawks well after they turned into the Russell Wilson-era Hawks in a hideous Week 6 win over Arizona. The process, the process, the process -- things of that nature.
Seattle has slowly but surely morphed into the second most extreme run funnel defense. Seahawks opponents are leaning heavily on the run, including the Cardinals in Week 6 (-8 percent pass rate over expected); the Saints in Week 5 (-11 percent PROE); and the Lions in Week 4 (-9 percent PROE).
If the Chargers follow this well-established trend of establishing the run against Seattle like it’s 1985, obviously Austin Ekeler becomes what the kids are calling a “smash play.” It doesn’t hurt that Ekeler over the past three games has a team-leading 21 percent target share, a product of Justin Herbert having next to no time to throw (he’s faced pressure at the fourth-highest rate this season). Ekeler will face off against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed the eighth-highest EPA per rush this season. Any Chargers-Seahawks game stack that leaves out Ekeler is too galaxy brained. And as a galaxy brainer, I don’t say this lightly.
Keenan Allen, expected to return in Week 7 from a lengthy hamstring injury, should be the beneficiary of a quick-hitting LA passing attack that saw Herbert’s average depth of target plummet to 6.8, 31st among quarterbacks, per PFF. As Herbert’s underneath slot guy, Allen could step into a massive target load this week. Josh Palmer, who’s in the league’s concussion protocol, would stand to benefit if Allen remains sidelined.
LA’s down-bad secondary -- which saw free agency splash signing J.C. Jackson get benched in Week 6 -- has been far more vulnerable to outside receivers than slot wideouts this year. Davante Adams, Zay Jones, Amari Cooper, and Donovan Peoples-Jones have all terrorized the Chargers coverage unit in 2022. Even Nico Collins had 83 yards on three receptions against these Chargers in Week 4. That should position D.K. Metcalf, who has run 83 percent of his routes on the outside, as the preferred Seattle wideout option in Week 7.
LA has mostly locked down opposing slot receivers, making Lockett the inferior DFS play, though that calculus could change if Metcalf has significantly higher rostership than Lockett. I don’t see that happening though. One (or both) of Metcalf and Lockett should have a solid outing against an LA defense that ranks as the league’s fourth most extreme pass funnel.
If this game is going to shoot out, Ken Walker is very much going to be involved. The rookie handled 91 percent of the team’s backfield touches in his first start last week against Arizona and leads all NFL backs in PFF’s breakaway rate. Walker is a 70-yard touchdown waiting to happen. That he doesn’t get much pass game involvement doesn’t matter much. More and more are saying it would be silly to stack this game without Walker. The Chargers, after all, are allowing the fifth-highest EPA per rush this season.
Game Stack Ideas
Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Walker, Metcalf
Geno, Ekeler, Allen, Metcalf, Walker
Ekeler, Metcalf or Walker
Allen, Metcalf or Walker
Bengals (-6.5) vs. Falcons
This game pits the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel defense -- the Falcons -- against a Bengals defense that has become a top-10 run funnel. Luckily for us, these funnels fit the strength of both offenses.
Atlanta opponents have increasingly gone pass heavy against the Falcons, as we saw last week with the Niners (in negative game script) posting a season-high 6 percent pass rate over expected. The Falcons can be had on the ground -- they allow the ninth-highest rush EPA -- but the Bengals are finally doing that thing where they don’t waste early downs on inefficient Joe Mixon rushing attempts.
Last week against New Orleans, Zac Taylor went ultra-aggressive through the air, using shotgun formation on an astounding 96 percent of the team’s plays. The Bengals, accordingly, were 21 percent over their expected pass rate against the Saints. While we probably can’t bank on that sort of mind-meltingly pass-heavy approach, Taylor and the Bengals seem to have (again) realized their best offense is not one centered on a replacement-level running back. It always takes him a couple of months, but Zac eventually gets there.
Maybe last week’s blowup performance and a pretty good matchup against the Falcons will make Joe Burrow somewhat chalky. Cincinnati has a 27-point implied total, after all. But if you can stomach the chalk -- and get different elsewhere -- Burrow has a tasty ceiling against an Atlanta defense allowing the second-highest completion rate and pressuring enemy QBs at the third-lowest rate. Unless the Bengals get out to a huge lead, Burrow should be able to pick apart Arthur Smith‘s defense. Two-thirds of the touchdowns scored against Atlanta this season have come via the pass, the NFL’s 11th-highest rate.
This naturally sets up Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins for big outings. Higgins seems fully recovered from his ankle issue; he ran a route on nearly every Burrow dropback in Week 6 and caught six of his ten (mostly short) targets in a Bengals passing offense that has been forced into dink-and-dunk mode while facing a good amount of two high safety looks. Certainly Higgins will have far less rostership than Chase in Week 7. Maybe that makes him the better tournament option. Or as the meme asks, why not both?
Chase’s usage was downright tremendous last week against the Saints. For the second straight week, Chase posted a 33 percent slot rate. He just so happens to rip opposing secondaries from the slot, catching 13 of 16 targets for 118 yards from the slot through Week 6. Chase, with the NFL’s second-highest weight opportunity rate (combining air yards share with target share) over the past three weeks, could roast Atlanta’s defense if his slot usage continues. The Falcons have allowed solid stat lines to slot guys like Jarvis Landry (7/114/0), Cooper Kupp (11/108/2), Chris Godwin (6/61), and Tyler Lockett (9/76).
Pinpointing exactly which Falcons player profiles as the best run-back option is hardly an easy task. This is an unapologetically run-first offense (please apologize, Arthur Smith) that refuses to drop back and pass even when facing a deficit. Only the backward Bears have a lower pass rate over expected than Atlanta this season. The Falcons have a -11 percent pass rate over expected on first downs this year. I’m triggered.
None of the Falcons running backs have much appeal in what has been a split backfield that has caused life-shortening indigestion for fantasy managers since Cordarrelle Patterson went on injured reserve. Tyler Allgeier over the past three games leads the Falcons with a 24 percent opportunity share (targets plus rushes) while Caleb Huntley has a 21 percent opportunity share and has just four fewer carries than Allgeier over that stretch. An Atlanta back would need a multiple-touchdown game if they were going to prove a worthy run-back option in DFS tournaments because the rushing volume simply won’t be there.
That leaves Drake London and Kyle Pitts as the contrarian run-back plays who might -- just maybe -- see some volume if the Bengals stomp the Falcons in the first half. London leads the team with a 33 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share. The Falcons’ extremely limited play volume has held back London from more productive days, and will again if this game is close. The bet here -- one that will leave you right alone or wrong alone in large-field tournaments -- is that London’s target dominance leads to 10 or 12 targets rather than five or six.
Pitts, who has single handedly turned an entire generation of fantasy football players into nihilists, has horrific raw numbers but good peripheral numbers. Embrace the cold comfort. He’s eighth in tight end yards per route run and last week his route participation rate jumped to 87.5 percent. Pitts could finally, at long last, have a decent game if Atlanta is forced out of its stubbornly run-heavy approach. He’s insanely cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Game Stack Ideas
Burrow, Chase, Higgins, London or Pitts
Burrow, Chase or Higgins, London
Burrow, Chase or Higgins, Pitts
Chase or Higgins, Pitts or London
Raiders (-7) vs. Texans
DFS players determined to fade chalky Josh Jacobs in Week 7 are experiencing life-threatening levels of FOMO. Hospital beds are filling up. Doctors are sounding the alarms. The federal government has declared an emergency.
But fret not, Jacobs faders. There is a path to leverage against what will surely be massive rostership for the Vegas running back who has seen 84 percent of the team’s backfield touches this season, going against a porous Houston defense that ranks as one of the most extreme run-funnel defenses in the NFL. You see, Houston’s defense can also be had through the air, as evidenced by the Texans allowing the 11th-highest EPA per dropback over the past three weeks. Houston opponents have been efficient through the air this season, averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the 12th-highest rate in the league.
Stacking Derek Carr with Davante Adams -- and possibly Darren Waller, depending on his health and availability -- is the most direct path to fading the all-consuming Jacobs chalk and securing leverage in case the Raiders do most of their damage via the pass this week. We can be certain that a Carr-Adams stack will be a rare one in Week 7 DFS lineups.
I think Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and Dameon Pierce are all viable as run-back options. I don’t, however, think you can use more than one of them in a game stack alongside Carr and Adams. Cooks continues to dominate Houston’s target share and air yards share, Nico Collins has a route participation rate north of 90 percent of his past two outings -- along with seven receptions for 148 yards -- and Pierce is splitting pass-catching work with Rex Burkhead and has nine catches on 11 targets over his past couple games. Vegas opponents have leaned slightly toward the pass this season.
The main drawback for Pierce is run defense being the Raiders’ unquestioned strength. No team allows a lower EPA per rush than Vegas. But if the Texans can keep the game close, we know Lovie Smith and the Texans are adamant about feeding Pierce.
Game Stack Ideas
Carr, Adams, and Cooks or Pierce or Collins
Adams and Pierce or Collins or Cooks
