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RotoPat’s Post-Draft Rankings

Josh Allen

Josh Allen

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

You like this guy but you hope they don’t sign anybody else. You know so-and-so is going to break out as long as they don’t draft any extra target competition. We all know the spring feeling: Just get my guy through the offseason. With rosters finally in something resembling their final 2022 form, I thought it was a good time to do one final rankings check in before we dive into draft guide season. Here are my post-draft top 32 quarterbacks, 50 running backs, 60 receivers and 25 tight ends.

Top 32 Quarterbacks

1. Josh Allen — Thermonuclear warhead capable of greatest ever fantasy QB season.
2. Patrick Mahomes — Post-Tyreek skill corps is more traits than stars, but good traits.
3. Lamar Jackson — Every offseason move points to more dual-threating.
4. Justin Herbert — Few offseason additions, but no subtractions, either.
5. Tom Brady — Yards and touchdowns bolded on 44-year-old Brady’s 2021 PFR page.
6. Kyler Murray — Winding offseason back where it started: Peaks and valleys QB who needs to put together complete season.
7. Joe Burrow — Rare combination of efficiency and big-play ability could stave off regression.
8. Jalen Hurts — Ceiling and floor buttressed by addition of YAC demon A.J. Brown.
9. Dak Prescott — Another injury, this time joined by skill corps turnover.
10. Russell Wilson — Leaves behind elite weapons for strong weapons, philosophical upgrade.
11. Aaron Rodgers — Work not exactly finished on Rodgers’ “revamped” receiver corps.
12. Matthew Stafford — Rams unleash Stafford when needed, but McVay prefers balance.
13. Deshaun Watson — Still zero clarity on how many games Watson might be eligible for.
14. Trey Lance — Troubling that Lance whisper campaign remains negative instead of positive.
15. Derek Carr — Always incrementally improving, Carr has never had a ‘cast like this before.
16. Kirk Cousins — Happy medium between Goff and Stafford should be good fit for new O.
17. Tua Tagovailoa — Upgraded skill corps, upgraded scheme. Time to release the YAC kraken.
18. Trevor Lawrence — Real coach, better players after doomed rookie season.
19. Daniel Jones — Finally has an OC who might do something with deep, varied skill group.
20. Ryan Tannehill — Titans holding your beer on the belief they couldn’t get more run heavy.
21. Matt Ryan — Will have actual blocking for the first time in half a decade.
22. Zach Wilson — Stockpiling weapons, Jets are trying to learn from their Darnold mistakes.
23. Justin Fields — Not only is the cavalry not arriving, it was sent the other way.
24. Jameis Winston — Everything went right for rehabbing Winston this offseason.
25. Mac Jones — This might get run heavier before it gets pass happier.
26. Davis Mills — Offseason was one long vote of confidence.
27. Kenny Pickett — Has the supporting cast to be an instant streamer.
28. Carson Wentz — What legitimate reason is there to expect Wentz to improve?
29. Jared Goff — Lions openly crave better QB play, but it’s not on the roster.
30. Marcus Mariota — Will start Week 1, but ATL won’t “set and forget” following Ridder addition.
31. Drew Lock — Zero chance Geno Smith is actually the starter.
32. Baker Mayfield — Mayfield will make starts, we just don’t know where yet.

Top 50 Running Backs

1. Jonathan Taylor — Only thing to monitor is increased Nyheim Hines usage.
2. Christian McCaffrey — Will win weeks and leagues for as long as he stays healthy.
3. Austin Ekeler — 20 TDs is what happens when Ekeler stays healthy. Spiller helps, not hurts.
4. Najee Harris — The man who had 381 rookie touches now has a rookie quarterback.
5. Dalvin Cook — Still has as much upside as any back. Bound for positive TD regression.
6. Derrick Henry — 2021 a one off, or the beginning of the aging rules applying to Henry?
7. Alvin Kamara — Stabilized supporting cast shores up both floor and ceiling.
8. D’Andre Swift — No added competition. Top-three PPR finish possible.
9. Joe Mixon — Third in carries and 16th in receptions despite Perine usage. RB1 by default.
10. Cam Akers — Akers’ 2021 glass was half full with massive coaching commitment.
11. Javonte Williams — Broncos at least made Gordon sweat. This could be aspirational.
12. Nick Chubb — Better quarterback. If said QB gets suspended, bigger workloads.
13. Aaron Jones — 60-70 catches possible post-Davante Adams trade?
14. Leonard Fournette — Good as he was in ’21, Fournette hardly slammed door shut on touch challenges.
15. Saquon Barkley — Pass-catcher Barkley right kind of back for coach who abandons run.
16. David Montgomery — Shaping up as a “run first, think later” kind of season for Bears.
17. James Conner — Could have Matt Forte-style RB1 campaign.
18. Ezekiel Elliott — Ultimately impossible to see the Cowboys order Tony Pollard code red.
19. Josh Jacobs — Mixed signals on Jacobs’ future, but not his place on ‘21 Raiders: Best back.
20. Elijah Mitchell — Enough threats — Lance, Deebo, new third-rounder — to hedge Mitchell’s ‘21.
21. Miles Sanders — Was a different, more patient runner after returning from ‘21 injury.
22. Breece Hall — Brutal battering ram who could finish much, much higher.
23. J.K. Dobbins — We love him, but he has 152 touches in two NFL seasons.
24. Devin Singletary — Consider me skeptical Cpt. James Cook has immediate 1B workload.
25. Damien Harris — It’s a crowded backfield, but one where Harris’ role shouldn’t change much.
26. Antonio Gibson — The Commanders just aren’t that into him.
27. Chase Edmonds — Might Edmonds actually average fewer than last year’s 13 touches?
28. AJ Dillon — Pack confused on how to use RBs, but not whether they should use them.
29. Travis Etienne — Variables and upside to spare. Should be summer riser.
30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Rare back who could benefit from better codified committee role.
31. Kareem Hunt — Will probably finish higher, but Hunt’s ceiling too well defined right now.
32. Kenneth Walker — Don’t get between Pete Carroll and using his new Day 2 running back.
33. Cordarrelle Patterson — Both team and player seem interested in scaling back ground role.
34. Tony Pollard — Settling into his Duke Johnson easy chair.
35. Rashaad Penny — Injury history loomed too large for Seahawks to give true starting chance.
36. Ronald JonesAndy Reid more tolerant of mistakes than Bruce Arians, but ask LeSean McCoy: Only to a point.
37. Melvin Gordon — Role player, but sure to remain an annoying one for fantasy managers.
38. Michael Carter — Not much reason to buy the dip.
39. Tyler Allgeier — A player where the camp reports are going to matter. It’s all right there.
40. Dameon Pierce — “Has to get touches” logic often backfires, but … hoo boy he needs touches.
41. J.D. McKissic — Will inevitably rise up weekly ranks as higher-upside options fade.
42. Rhamondre Stevenson — The role is not commensurate to the talent.
43. James Cook — Bills hellbent on committee, but SB-or-bust team won’t hand it over.
44. Raheem Mostert — Coaching staff favorite, but not even guaranteed to make team.
45. Isaiah Spiller — Should have long runway to claim No. 2 job that was amongst Bolts’ biggest issues.
46. Nyheim Hines — More receptions supposedly coming, but Taylor might simply be too good.
47. Alexander Mattison — Forever waiting in the wings.
48. James Robinson — We just don’t know. Snoop Conner added in fifth round.
49. Rachaad White — Bucs open to having a No. 2 back if one would ever prove good enough.
50. Gus Edwards — 27-year-old Edwards might have missed his moment, even with Ravens tripling down on run.

Top 60 Wide Receivers

1. Cooper Kupp — Bad: Will regress. Good: It will be off the No. 2 receiving season all time.
2. Ja’Marr Chase — Even if Chase regresses in some areas — i.e. long scores — he will offset it somewhere else.
3. Justin Jefferson — 2,000-yard season possible in this “Rams lite” attack.
4. Davante Adams — Enough brainpower here to keep Adams top five.
5. Deebo Samuel — Deebo was second in receiving (882) before Niners made him part-time RB in Week 10.
6. Stefon Diggs — Still in physical prime. Eight-plus TDs four of the past five years.
7. Tyreek Hill — Hill’s game was already changing. Can Tua/McDaniel get him the ball in space?
8. CeeDee Lamb — Can play anywhere. Wants and deserves more offensive tempo.
9. Mike Evans — Brady’s return has brightened the corners. Godwin’s injury timeline unclear.
10. A.J. Brown — For now, the talent remains too alluring. I have all summer to think about it, though.
11. Tee Higgins — Bengals seem poised to be a two-WR1 offense.
12. Diontae Johnson — Perfect fit for likely conservative play-calling with rookie QB.
13. Keenan Allen — Age has been slowly setting in, but the compiling has yet to stop.
14. Chris Godwin — Still waiting on a clearer recovery timeline. This could be too high.
15. Jaylen Waddle — Ready to be Deebo-ized?
16. D.J. Moore — Still has top-10 upside. Will Corral spin it this summer?
17. DK Metcalf — Blinded by the talent?
18. Michael Pittman — Has shown two distinct games in two years. Will he get RZ targets?
19. Amari Cooper — Walls come tumbling down if Watson is handed long suspension.
20. Marquise Brown — Lamar’s deep ball has to be schemed. Same not true for Kyler.
21. Terry McLaurin — Bad quarterback, first-round receiver target competition.
22. Amon-Ra St. Brown — Table is set to build on blinding 2021 finish.
23. Michael Thomas — Somehow still not healthy. This could be but a dream.
24. Mike Williams — WR1 was a mirage, but WR2 steady with little new target competition.
25. JuJu Smith-Schuster — Will receive the most WR targets from the best QB on the planet.
26. Jerry Jeudy — Versatile game ready for its Tyler Lockett closeup.
27. Tyler Lockett — Lockett’s nuanced game not exactly a fit with Drew Lock.
28. Darnell Mooney — Has the talent for more, but maybe not the quarterback.
29. Gabriel Davis — Safer to overinterpret 8/201/4 than over-fade it.
30. Treylon Burks — Superstar on college film. In the right place for targets.
31. Brandin Cooks — Floor pick where I would rather bet on upside.
32. Courtland Sutton — Improved health and vastly improved QB play could make this look quaint.
33. Rashod Bateman — It would certainly appear the Ravens believe.
34. Drake London — Draft capital and targets vacuum make for open-and-shut WR3 case.
35. Brandon Aiyuk — Was 11th in receiving after Week 9, but Trey Lance a red flag.
36. Elijah Moore — Wide range of potential outcomes for 2021 darling.
37. Christian Kirk — Gaudy contract, low-key target competition.
38. Chris Olave — Easy to envision as a Jameis Winston-type receiver.
39. Allen Robinson — Don’t know how much is left in the tank but someone finally trying to fill it.
40. Hunter Renfrow — Chance this is far too low in a system that has made superstars of slot men.
41. Adam Thielen — Aging dunker who should remain red-zone relevant.
42. DeVonta Smith — Hard to see what else could have gone wrong with Smith’s targets projection.
43. Kadarius Toney — Off to rocky start with new coaching staff but has trump card: Talent.
44. Christian Watson — Making FCS to NFL adjustment with chemistry-sensitive QB. Undeniable targets need, of course.
45. Russell Gage — Don’t hate the player, hate the PPR game. And Tom Brady.
46. Robert Woods — Stable No. 2 target Titans lacked in 2021. If he’s healthy, of course.
47. Chase Claypool — Appears to be getting ushered out of Pittsburgh.
48. Michael Gallup — Could jump into top 36 if he proves health in camp.
49. Garrett Wilson — How do you project first-round WR in crowded offense with unproven QB?
50. DeAndre Hopkins — Player who has noticeably declined now banned six games for PEDs.
51. Marquez Valdes-ScantlingDeSean Jackson-type 1K campaign can’t be ruled out.
52. Kenny Golladay — Unless his legs are just gone, Golladay will be better.
53. Jahan Dotson — Respect the draft capital if not the role or quarterback.
54. Jameson Williams — Special player on film who could roar past ‘22 expectations if healthy.
55. Skyy Moore — I simply have no idea where he will slot in on the targets totem pole.
56. Will Fuller — Rare for an unsigned May player to have this much upside.
57. Tyler Boyd — If you are going to be a distant No. 3 option, this offense is the place to do it.
58. Jarvis Landry — Saints broke glass in case of targets emergency.
59. Jakobi Meyers — No upside, reasonable floor.
60. Rondale Moore — Could be well on his way to Isabella-ing.

Top 25 Tight Ends

1. Mark Andrews — Hollywood’s trade only increases Andrews’ importance, target share.
2. Travis Kelce — Aging, but like a fine Tony Gonzalez wine. Unquestioned KC No. 1.
3. Kyle Pitts — The long view shows Pitts’ rookie year to be special.
4. George Kittle — Floor creeping lower in sophisticated run attack but monumental ceiling remains.
5. Darren Waller — Floor, spiked week potential remains even if Davante lowers overall ceiling.
6. Dalton Schultz — Target magnet with cratered competition.
7. T.J. Hockenson — Deeper offense should at least give Hock cleaner looks.
8. Zach Ertz — Compiler who should see increased red zone opportunity sans Nuk.
9. Dallas GoedertA.J. Brown is the latest obstacle for a player always on the cusp.
10. Pat Freiermuth — Multiple avenues to fantasy success in conservative passing attack.
11. Rob Gronkowski — Seemingly only a matter of time before Gronk re-signs.
12. Mike Gesicki — Gesicki’s targets an annoying necessity both in real life and fantasy.
13. Dawson Knox — Knox will probably be even more boom or bust than he was in ‘21.
14. Hunter Henry — Still the Patriots’ most effective red zone target.
15. Noah FantDrew Lock is not the person you want to be following around the country.
16. Robert Tonyan — Even if the Packers add more wideouts, Tonyan now a necessity.
17. Irv Smith — Passing attack could be both more efficient and higher volume.
18. Logan Thomas — Say what you will about Carson Wentz, the man targets the hell out of the seam.
19. Cole Kmet — Progressing slowly, but he is progressing.
20. Evan Engram — Targets for the taking in a system that peppers tight ends.
21. Albert Okwuegbunam — Ceiling and floor of a key role player.
22. Tyler Higbee — No more juice to squeeze out of this orange.
23. Austin Hooper — These Titans looks have to go somewhere.
24. Gerald Everett — Mistake-prone player in explosive offense.
25. Hayden Hurst — Boundary attention creates chunk play potential in Cincy seam.