Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes. Anybody can tell you to start the Chris Carsons, D.J. Charks, and George Kittles of the world. That’s not what I’m doing here. I’m looking deeper at legitimate mostly-borderline candidates who owners may truly be contemplating using in lineups.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Matt Ryan vs. Bucs: Fantasy’s QB10 in points per game, Ryan has a pair of sub-200 yards performances in his last three games and is just the QB20 since returning from his ankle injury. That’s after Ryan opened the season with six straight 300-yard passing games, tossing multiple touchdowns in five of those contests. Despite throwing just one touchdown last week in Carolina, Ryan played extremely well, averaging a season-high 10.03 yards per attempt as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were working over the Panthers secondary. This is a major get-right spot for the former MVP. The Bucs are a true pass-funnel defense, checking in at 30th in pass-defense DVOA, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in touchdowns allowed through the air, 24th in opponent passer rating, 21st in opponent yards per attempt, and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks while facing the league’s most pass attempts. Tampa Bay is also 24th in opponent plays per game. Both the Bucs and Falcons are top-15 in offensive pace, so this game has major shootout appeal as evidenced by its 51-point total, easily the highest of the week. Drew Brees (228 yards, 3 TDs, QB10), Kyler Murray (324/3/QB4), Russell Wilson (378/5/QB1), and Ryan Tannehill (193/3/QB11) have all lit the Bucs up since Tampa’s Week 7 bye. Ryan is an elite QB1 option right behind Lamar Jackson for Week 12.
Starts
Baker Mayfield vs. Dolphins: Mayfield is coming off back-to-back multiple-touchdown games, amazingly his first two such games of the season after throwing 0-1 scores each of the first eight contests. He is the QB11 over the last two weeks. Cleveland’s offense is getting to full strength with the recent return of Rashard Higgins from injury, Kareem Hunt from suspension, and David Njoku now knocking on the door after missing Weeks 2-11 with a broken wrist. Mayfield now gets a Dolphins Defense that is dead last in pass-defense DVOA, 20th in passing yards allowed per game, 28th in opponent yards per attempt, 30th in opponent passer rating, 29th in passing touchdowns surrendered, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Miami has played better defense of late, but the QB schedule hasn’t exactly been difficult. Since the bye, the Dolphins have faced Case Keenum, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, and Allen again last week, who hung the overall QB1 day on the board. Miami is 21st in opponent plays per game. The Browns’ implied total of 27.5 points is the second-highest of the week, tied with the Falcons behind the Saints. Mayfield is a top-12 play.
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Derek Carr at Jets: Carr rushed for his first touchdown of the season last week and has multiple touchdowns in 6-of-8 games after tossing just one each the first two weeks of the year. The problem for Carr as a fantasy prospect is that he’s yet to have a 300-yard game and is averaging just 249.4 yards per game with next-to-no rushing output. He’s been perfectly fine as a strong QB2 each week, but the ceiling is relatively low because Carr plays such a conservative game. That’s fine in real life, but it doesn’t translate to fantasy numbers, as Carr is the overall QB22 in points per game behind guys like Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Andy Dalton. But this is a potential ceiling game for Carr. The Jets are 21st in pass-defense DVOA, 21st in passing yards allowed per game, 21st in opponent passer rating, 23rd in touchdown passes surrendered, and 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. And they’ve faced Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Gardner Minshew the last four weeks. Jones put 308 yards and four touchdowns on the Jets in Week 10 after Minshew hung 279 yards and three scores on them two weeks before that. Carr has one of the better offensive lines in the league protecting him while the Jets are in the bottom half of the NFL in adjusted sack rate. Oakland’s implied total of 24.75 points is sixth-highest of the week. Carr is a legit streamer.
Jeff Driskel at Redskins: Driskel is completing a subpar 58.3% of his passes in two starts filling in for Matthew Stafford while averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt with three touchdown passes, but he’s compiled a 13-88-1 rushing line and is the QB8 since stepping in under center. Driskel is by no means even an average thrower of the football, but he has above-average athleticism and is surrounded with a strong group of pass-catching playmakers. He now gets one of the easier matchups in football against a Washington defense that is 26th in DVOA versus the pass, 24th in opponent yards per attempt, and 26th in opponent passer rating. The Redskins are middle of the pack in passing yards allowed and fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks mainly because they face the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game. Working in Driskel’s favor, however, is the Lions’ lack of a reliable running game and Washington being 25th in opponent plays per game. He’s also a threat to run it in himself when the Lions are near the goal line. Washington just surrendered 293 yards and four touchdowns to Sam Darnold last week after Josh Allen threw a score and ran one in the previous week. Kirk Cousins completed 88.5% of his 26 throws against the Skins in Week 9. This game has the fourth-lowest total on the board at 41.5 points, but the 3.5-point spread suggests it could be competitive. Driskel is unlikely to flirt with elite QB1 numbers, but his rushing floor and favorable passing spot make him a viable play.
Sits
Tom Brady vs. Cowboys: The overall QB9 in Weeks 1-6, Brady produced five top-13 weeks in that span, but has been the overall QB29 in fantasy points per game over the last five weeks with zero top-12 finishes and three QB19-or-worse weeks. Brady has zero 300-yard passing games over his last four outings with one multi-touchdown game. It hasn’t been for lack of volume either, as Brady has fired off at least 45 pass attempts in three of those four contests. The offense is simply devoid of playmakers following the release of Josh Gordon. Mohamed Sanu now has a multi-week ankle injury, leaving Julian Edelman as the lone reliable target. Dallas is 19th in pass-defense DVOA but No. 7 in passing yards allowed per game, No. 5 in opponent yards per attempt, No. 7 in passing touchdowns allowed, 17th in opponent passer rating, and No. 8 in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. The projected pace of this game is intriguing with both the Patriots (No. 1) and Cowboys (No. 3) top-three in offensive pace, but I am leaning toward this game hitting the under on its 45.5-point total that is currently being bet down. The Cowboys have held each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve faced to 220 yards or less while none of the four have thrown more than two touchdowns. Brady just hasn’t been getting it done from a fantasy perspective. There are better streamers, and I’d personally start Baker Mayfield and possibly even Jeff Driskel (both listed above) over Brady this week.
Josh Allen vs. Broncos: Fresh off his overall QB1 flaming of the Dolphins last week in Miami, Allen returns home for a stiff test against a Broncos Defense that is No. 5 in passing yards allowed per game, No. 5 in opponent yards per attempt, No. 5 in passing touchdowns allowed, 14th in opponent passer rating, and 15th in pass-defense DVOA. Denver is also all the way up to 12th in adjusted sack rate despite its horrendous start to the season in that department coupled with the loss of OLB Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL. This defense faces the eighth-fewest plays per game, and both the Bills and Broncos are in the bottom half of the league in offensive pace. Broncos-Bills has the lowest total of the week at 37.5 points. Allen is obviously always a threat for rushing scores, but this doesn’t shape up as a spot for him to realize his sky-high ceiling, especially if Denver can control the ball on the ground a bit against a weak Buffalo run defense. Allen is a borderline QB1/2 best-suited for two-QB leagues this week. I’m personally starting Jameis Winston and Jeff Driskel over Allen where I have him.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Jaguars: Since taking over as the Titans’ starter in Week 7, Tannehill has cobbled together the overall QB9 output with weekly finishes of QB13 > QB11 > QB5 > QB11. This might be Tannehill’s toughest on-paper test to date, however. The Jaguars are No. 11 in pass-defense DVOA, No. 8 in passing yards allowed, No. 10 in opponent completion percentage, No. 12 in passing touchdowns allowed, No. 12 in opponent passer rating, and 15th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Jacksonville is also No. 6 in adjusted sack rate. Both the Jaguars and Titans are bottom-seven in offensive pace. The Jaguars are No. 12 in opponent plays per game, and the Titans run the fourth-fewest offensive plays. Tennessee wants to run the ball down the defense’s throat, and that’s just what it did last time out against the Chiefs with Tannehill attempting all of 19 passes in the upset win. The Jaguars are a run-funnel defense, checking in at 30th in DVOA against the run. Derrick Henry has a history of destroying this defense. With the Titans as three-point home favorites, Henry should get all he can handle. Tannehill will ideally play a game-manager role. He’s best left for two-QB leagues.
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