TPC Craig Ranch returns for a third time to host the AT&T Byron Nelson.
There is some potential for nasty weather throughout the week but otherwise plenty of scoring is on the docket.
This is the final tune-up ahead of the PGA Championship. The course has been changed to play a par 71 this year instead of a par 72 which we saw in 2021 and 2022. It was one of the easiest courses on TOUR as a par 72 so even with the change we should still expect to see some low numbers this week.
When building DFS rosters I like to lean on course fit, so howabout we take a look at some historical performance on courses that allow you to pull driver frequently.
Drive for Dough
TPC Craig Ranch has yielded loads of birdies and eagles over the first two editions that its hosted.
What makes the course so easy? The wide fairways certainly help.
“We just don’t play a whole lot of the courses like this where we can gear up and let the driver loose and not worry about the rough and hit a lot of fairways. -Harris English
“The golf course is for the most part wide open. There are areas you got to be precise, but for the most part it’s a bombers’ paradise.” -Bryson DeChambeau
Here are the top performers in adjusted strokes gained per round on driver-heavy courses, over the last two years:
Scottie Scheffler
Jason Day
Adam Scott
Hideki Matsuyama
Tyrrell Hatton
Tom Kim
Scott Stallings
Trey Mullinax
K.H. Lee
C.T. Pan
Aaron Wise
Brandon Wu
Joseph Bramlett
Matt Kuchar
Stephan Jaeger
We can also look at performance versus baseline to see who shows the largest increase in performance compared to their typical scores:
Trey Mullinax
Brandon Wu
C.T. Pan
Joseph Bramlett
Satoshi Kodaira
Michael Kim
Scott Stallings
Scott Piercy
Harry Higgs
Dylan Wu
Nate Lashley
Scottie Scheffler
David Lipsky
James Hahn
Cameron Champ
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings, Trey Mullinax, C.T. Pan, Brandon Wu, and Joseph Bramlett.
Stallings with a proven track record at TPC Craig Ranch
This course has only hosted two times but Stallings has made the most of those starts. He twirled a twirled a T3 at the 2021 Byron Nelson and landed a T25 last year. He showed up on the overlap list above but it’s nice to see that also show up on the history page. He arrives with seven straight finishes outside of the top 25 but this looks like a good opportunity to fix that mini-slump.
Bramlett a long-course crusher
The Stanford alum has four top 15s this season and three of them have come at huge ballparks (Memorial Park, Torrey Pines, Vidanta Villarta). Length is definitely one of his strengths so it would makes sense that he overperforms on courses that allow him to play to those strengths. He also has a T7 on his TPC Craig Ranch resume. He’s not someone to lead with on your rosters but with his affordable salary, it does allow you to load up on some star power at the top.
