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With just one week until the Masters, the PGA Tour makes the short trip from Austin to San Antonio, Texas for the 100th anniversary of the Valero Texas Open. The Texas Open is staged at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), a par-72, 7,494-yard championship course.
Defending champion Jordan Spieth returns to San Antonio in hopes to go back-to-back, not only winning the Texas Open but parlaying that success and winning his second green jacket. Spieth said, during an interview, “I want a 10-day stretch of peaking from Thursday through the next Sunday, so I’m trying to save energy.” This sentiment is shared by many who will be playing both the Texas Open and the Masters. Spieth is an interesting roster option this week. He’s the third most expensive golfer behind Rory McIlroy ($11,200) and Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800) but is coming off a terrible three tournament stretch. However, course familiarity and the weaker field could work in the Texas native’s favor.
Here’s a look at a few metrics that I weighted heavily while looking for golfers to roster and fade this week on DraftKings DFS.
Stats Correlated to Success:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Par 5
- Driving Distance
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Favorites:
Rory McIlroy ($11,200): This feels a bit lazy on my part; snagging the highest-priced golfer and calling it a day. It’s for good reason. McIlroy has honestly been playing very good golf since the BMW back in August. Looking at his results he has three top-5s, including his win at the CJ Cup, and a handful of top-10s and 20s. His worst result is a T33 at the Players Championship. Regardless if it’s true or not, we can blame that on the weather.
TPC and API are the only events since his 12th place finish at St Jude where he lost strokes on the greens. He’s been money off the tee in his last 10 tournaments gaining +3 strokes per round. Outside of Bryson DeChambeau, he’s the longest hitter in the field. He’s fourth in SG: BS, 10th in SG: App, and fifth in SG: Par 5.
This is his first start here since back in 2013. However, I’d expect he’d want a strong showing here to build confidence heading into the Masters.
NBC Sports EDGE Optimal Lineup (Via NBC Sports EDGE+ DFS Tools):
Corey Conners ($9,800)
Jason Day ($9,000)
Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,900)
Rickie Fowler ($7,700)
K.H. Lee ($7,600)
Matthew NeSmith ($7,100)
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,600): I am a bit shocked to see that he wasn’t featured in the optimal line with the DFS tools. Nonetheless, Vegas will be a golfer I am backing in the outright market, the top-20 market, and in DFS. He’s a model golfer for this course. He’s a great ball striker who is long off the tee and is deadly on approach. Putting is and has been his Achilles’ heel. At $8,600 I’m not asking for him to put on a masterclass on the putting greens, but to continue gaining stokes on them. Something that he’s done at four of the last five events he’s played. In all honesty, I will take a repeat performance of last week at Corales Puntacana and call it a day.
Tread Lightly:
Abraham Ancer ($10,300): Ancer is $10,000… Let that sink in for a bit. A guy with two missed cuts and zero top-20 finishes in his last seven events yields a price tag of $10,300? Yeah, that’s not going to do it for me. I understand this is a much weaker field than the events he’s played over the last few months, but this is a result-driven format, and his results aren’t living up to the standards that must be met by $10k guys.
He lost -2.2 strokes tee-to-green at Valspar and was awful on approach, which led to a missed cut. He did play well at TPC which earned him a 33rd place finish. Then at Genesis, he lost strokes off-the-tee and finished 39th. If I’m rostering the fourth-highest-priced golfer, I want to believe he has a legitimate chance to win, and his floor would be somewhere around T15. I don’t believe either of those apply to Ancer, so I will have to sit this one out.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200): Hmm... This was a tough one for me. I believe it’s important to understand the difference between backing someone in DFS and betting on them outright. My goal in DFS is to get a 6/6 make the cut roster. Betting outright, I could care less if they are volatile. I just need one winner. DeChambeau is coming off a long lay off and in his first tournament back he was spraying the ball all over the course. He truly feels like a guy who will miss the cut or win. That’s the change you must ask yourself if you’re willing to take. Do you want to run the risk of him ruining your perfect 6/6 at $10,200?
As for a perfect course fit, he comes to mind. He’s a bomber and a great ball striker who can get away with missing fairways due to the nonpenal rough. He hasn’t played here since 2017 when he missed the cut, but he’s a much better golfer now than he was back then. It will probably take me a few more rounds of watching him play and play healthy before I am ready to commit any draft capital on him.
Sleepers:
Brendan Steele ($7,600): Steele is an interesting roster option this week. He hasn’t played well here since 2016 when he finished T13. Right now, he’s playing solid golf and it could be said he’s worth consideration at this price. He will likely be low-owned, so if you get a bit of quality from his golf game, he could help bump you up in GPPs. His 13th place finish is what I am looking at. At a difficult course, he gained +7.6 strokes off-the-tee and gained another +4.2 strokes on approach. He finished 26th at API the week before that, even after losing -5.9 strokes on the putting surface. Those last two results broke up a streak of five missed cuts. He won’t have to be overly wonderful with the flat stick to score here. I don’t mind him at $7,600.
Adam Svensson ($6,800): Svensson is coming off a missed cut at Corales and a 39th at Valspar. His game has been up and down. He showed glimpses of great quality at Honda where he finished ninth. He gained +3.2 strokes off-the-tee and another +3.9 on approach. He also played well at the Sony Open where he gained a blistering +6.1 strokes on approach despite losing -1.4 strokes off-the-tee. I think we can squeeze a possible top-20 out of Svensson this week. In his last five events, he’s gained strokes tee-to-green, primarily due to gaining a ton of strokes on approach. Let’s get a big week from Svensson.
