Welcome to the second of three mock drafts I am writing for Rotoworld.
There have been a great number of changes made since the first one, which was written before the draft lottery was conducted. Even though the order at the top of the draft has changed (Carolina moved up from 11 to second overall with nine other picks dropping by one slot), the top three of this mock look the same as last time.
The changes begin with the fourth pick and with a few exceptions, they continue through the 31st and final pick of the first round.
This mock draft was completed shortly after the Washington Capitals took a two games to one lead over the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final. As the Cup winner gets the final pick in the draft and the runner-up gets pick 30, I completed this mock with the assumption that Washington would win twice more before Vegas can win three and picks 30 and 31 are slotted accordingly. For the record, I would maintain the players I have them picking here even if the pick order was reversed.
As a reminder, I cannot assume any trades in this exercise, even though a number of teams have discussed the possibility of shopping their selections.
For more about the upcoming draft, please head to mckeenshockey.com. Our annual draft guide was published yesterday for all subscribers and profiles on 125 players are included in the offering along with much, much more.
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Without further ado, I call the Buffalo Sabres up to the podium to make the first pick of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft:
1. Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (SHL)
Some years there is doubt about who will be selected with the first overall draft pick. There may have been lip service paid in some quarters early in the season about alternate possibilities, but even those whispers died away early. Rasmus Dahlin has four elite or near-elite tools in his skating, shooting, puck skills and hockey IQ. He even has a decent physical to tie it all together. No matter how you look at it, he is ready for the NHL and will be the top NHL-affiliated prospect in the game from the moment his name is called on the podium in Dallas until he suits up for his first game in October. The rebuild in Buffalo will be kicked into high gear with the addition of a superstar blueliner defining the pace of play for years to come.
2. Carolina Hurricanes – Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
As GM of the perennial sad sack Atlanta Thrashers from 1998-2006, Don Waddell, recently named as Ron Francis’ replacement in the GM chair in Carolina had more than his share of top draft picks. He selected Czechs, Russians, Canadians, Finns. As the big winners in the Draft Lottery this year, jumping from the 11th slot to pick second. After Dahlin, the choice comes down to two dynamic European wingers who have been rounding off their development in Canada. Assuming he keeps the pick (he is reportedly open to listening to offers), we project him to select Svechnikov, who is the Russian playing in Ontario over Zadina, who is the Czech playing in Halifax mostly because the former has a gritty, hard-nosed edge that the latter lacks. Either player would give the Hurricanes’ offense a needed boost.
3. Montreal Canadiens – Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
There are rumors that the Canadiens, who crave centers and toughness would either trade down, or go off the board here for a center like Joe Veleno (a rumor fanned by the flames of French Canadian angst wanting on of their own on the Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge) or a big tough winger like Brady Tkachuk. It would not be the first draft day shocker in recent memory; The Blue Jackets dropped jaws two years ago by selecting Pierre-Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujarvi, the consensus pick. That worked out well. In 2013, everyone expected the Avalanche to kick things off with Seth Jones before they took Nathan MacKinnon. Either choice would have worked out. I won’t bet on a surprise, though, and I will go with Zadina for Montreal, who could use more dynamic scoring as much as they could anything else. Zadina is as dynamic as they come.
4. Ottawa Senators – Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
Assuming the first three picks are the players mentioned above, this is the first point in the draft where a team is realistically choosing between more than two players. The Senators are a tough team to project as they usually draft for hockey IQ more than pure skill and seem more concerned with floor than ceiling. Then again, they usually pick much lower than this. This pick is their first top ten selection since drafting Mike Zibanejad sixth overall in 2011. Presuming they do not give this pick to Colorado to close out the Matt Duchene trade, they will be able to choose between players with both high floors and high ceilings. High IQ players with skill, to boot. The two players who best fit that template are winger Brady Tkachuk and defenseman Evan Bouchard. In this scenario, I see them taking the right-shooting defenseman, who also serves as a hedge in case Erik Karlsson leaves in the next 12 months.
5. Arizona Coyotes – Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (NCAA/Hockey East)
The Coyotes are in a bit of a weird spot. Their 2017-18 season was over almost before it began, with a first half that was awful in every sense. In the second half, though, they played like a playoff team. It was a case of too little, too late, but there are reasons for optimism here. While Brady Tkachuk has already publicly proclaimed that he will return to college for his sophomore season, he is as close to ready as any player outside of the top three. A strong power forward with great hands, high end hockey IQ and puck possession ability, he would make a great future compliment to Clayton Keller, who preceded Tkachuk with both the USNTDP and BU by one year. He can create space for both his own teammates to maneuver while also being fully capable of taking advantage of that space himself. As an added bonus, his father is a Coyotes alum.
6. Detroit Red Wings- Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan University (NCAA/Big 10)
This is the ideal result for the Red Wings. The easy connection is Hughes’ current team just down the road from Detroit in Ann Arbor. The more pertinent connection is the fact that Hughes spent must of the last month under the watchful eye of Wings’ coach Jeff Blashill as the only draft eligible player invited to play for Team USA at the recent World Championships. By all accounts, Hughes impressed greatly at the event, capping off a fantastic freshman season with the Wolverines. His game took off in the second half after he returned to campus from being the seventh defender for the Bronze Medal winning American WJC squad. He is an incredibly dynamic blueliner who absolutely controls the game whenever his team has the puck and is growing more confident and assertive in his own zone as well. Could use another year on campus, but he is not too far from making a serious NHL impact.
7. Vancouver Canucks – Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (WHL)
Two years ago, the Canucks used a single digit pick on a do-it-all blueliner who was fresh off a victory in the Memorial Cup. Last year, they looked to the Memorial Cup winners again for a goalie in the third round. This year, they will be primed to go that route again early, with right handed defender Noah Dobson, who was fantastic all season long, really, but stepped it up a notch in the postseason and in the Memorial Cup. A 200-foot player, Vancouver brass and fans should be envisioning a long term first pairing with Juolevi and Dobson. The latter can do everything at a plus level. Strong, smart play in his own zone. Fleet of foot from end to end and willing and able to jump into the rush and rip off a strong shot from the slot.
8. Chicago Blackhawks – Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
The dynasty in Chicago may be over, but the Blackhawks have done a good job of drafting sneakily high upside players on their way to college in recent years and reap the benefits of one or two new ones every year. Last year, John Hayden began to make his mark. Next season, Dylan Sikura is expected to win a top nine slot. Oliver Wahlstrom, a gifted goal scorer with the USNTDP may be ready to follow in their footsteps next year if he plays as expected with Boston College. A stellar skater and the best sniper this side of Svechnikov/Zadina, he has the inherent skills to damage opponents even in what may seem like a down game. He is more than just a shooter, though, as he also brings high end puck skills to the table and a mature physical frame. You would like to see more consistency in his intensity level, but this is a high impact prospect.
9. New York Rangers – Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas (SHL)
The word out of Manhattan is that the Rangers would prefer if they could use their first of three first rounders on a defenseman or a center, as long as he is a right handed shot. While the best centers on the board (Joe Veleno, Barrett Hayton, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) are all left handed shots, the last available high end defender is a righty. Boqvist is not as advanced as Dahlin, Bouchard, Hughes, or Dobson, his upside rivals each of those not from Sweden. He is undersized, a little raw in his own zone, and has not experienced much success out of the Swedish junior ranks yet, but the potential he brings to the offensive attack is tremendous. He is a jaw dropping skater, gifted puck player and owns a heavy point shot. He needs a full season of exposure to men’s hockey in Sweden before he might be ready to come over, and may, in fact, need two, but one he learns how to bring his skill set to the fore against more experienced and physically mature opponents, he could be a stud.
10. Edmonton Oilers – Joe Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
Since selecting Magnus Paajarvi with the 10th pick in 2009, all of the Oilers’ first picks save one were out of the CHL. With a fast, gifted playmaker like Veleno available here, there is no reason why that trend should not continue. The only player ever (yet) granted exceptional player status in the QMJHL, Veleno started his draft year off slowly, with a rebuilding Saint John Sea Dogs. Following a mid-season trade to Drummondville, his play and production picked up a few notches, and Veleno was lighting lamps again. He combines his great speed with an advanced hockey mind and silky smooth puck skills. His future presence down the middle may also make the Oilers feel more comfortable in moving one or both of Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the wing.
11. New York Islanders – Vitaly Kravtsov, RW, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL)
With a new General Manager in Lou Lamoriello in the fold, the Islanders may find out just how tied he is to drafting talent from Europe, as he did heavily in his time with Toronto, and before that, his Hall of Fame career in New Jersey. At this stage in the draft, the differences in expected outcomes between players has begun to shrink rapidly and the picture has become muddier and muddier. While not advocating that any team draft for need, organizational weaknesses can be more easily addressed at this point without going off the board. In Kravtsov, the Islanders would be getting a very talented winger who ended his season with a big bang, becoming the one greatest ever U18 KHL playoff scorers in league history. Skilled at both playmaking and finishing, the main question with him would be when he is ready to cross the ocean.
12. New York Islanders (from Calgary) – Bode Wilde, D, USNTDP (UHSL)
Continuing on the Islanders theme of drafting to fill areas of organizational weakness, Bode Wilde is the ever important right shooting defenseman that every team covets, but where the Islanders in particular have a dire lack of depth. Wilde is a marvelous skater and smooth stickhandler who excels at lading the rush up the ice. His vision for offensive work is very advanced and he is poised and calm with the puck. He has good size, although he plays with a lack of physical urgency or intensity. He will also need to be partnered with a more committed player in his own zone. If you have any misgivings about what a player like this can provide, imagine for yourselves a larger version of Kevin Shattenkirk (h/t to Leslie Treff for the comparison point as well as for general insight into the habits of the Islanders, Rangers and Devils) and you’re on the right track.
13. Dallas Stars – Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Jason Spezza seems not long for the NHL, Tyler Seguin has one year left on his contract, Jason Dickinson is as ready for the NHL as he will ever be, but at this point in his development, looks to have a ceiling of a number 3. Luckily for the Stars, their greatest area of organizational need is also the strength of the draft at this stage, considering the names of the 12 players we have already taken off the board in this scenario. Even playing a third line role with the Greyhounds, Hayton stood out showing all of the tools you want to see in your top six, with potentially high end hockey smarts. He also managed to score almost one point per game despite playing limited minutes on the OHLs regular season champions.
14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis) – K’Andre Miller C, USNTDP (USHL)
With the deepest farm system in hockey, no matter what position the Flyers add to in the first round (with either of their picks), it will simply be a case of the rich getting richer. As it happens, thanks to recent graduations, the defense-corps is the shallowest (in relative terms) in the system. Miller is a very raw defenseman, having only converted to the blueline from forward around three years ago and it shows sometimes, with questionable reads in his own zone. However, his collection of raw tools rivals that of anyone outside of Rasmus Dahlin. He can skate, shoot, stickhandle, play a mean, physical game, and is reliable in all situations. As he will be going to college at Wisconsin next season, the Flyers have the added bonus of additional years of development before they would be forced to give him an ELC, thereby letting the herd in the system thin itself out through attrition before Miller gets his day in the sun.
15. Florida Panthers – Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
After the upheaval in the Florida front office, from Tallon to the Computer Boys and back, the Panthers are still early in the process of modelling the system around the preferred style of the new boss, same as the old boss. Tallon has had great success in the past taking hyper intelligent two-way forwards with skill, such as Jonathan Toews and Aleksander Barkov. Farabee is not quite their equal in terms of his offensive game, but is very advanced in terms of his overall game. He can do a bit of everything, and he can do it at any time, in any game situation. And considering the size of his two older, hockey playing brothers, he might yet grow into a bigger frame, another Tallon checkbox.
16. Colorado Avalanche – Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo (SHL)
Since taking over as GM of the Avalanche in 2015, Joe Sakic’s team has made a point of drafting for skill, in whatever package it can be found, with their first round picks. He has always drafted higher than this, so the relatively low hanging fruits like Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, and Cale Makar are not available to him this time around. In Bokk, they will be drafting the best German talent since Leon Draisaitl. Bokk was excellent in his first year playing in Sweden and is as strong at filling nets as he is at setting up his teammates to do the same. His overall game is pretty electric, although his relative inexperience playing against top end talent will likely make his path to a top six NHL role a little longer than some of the others taken around this time.
17. New Jersey Devils – Martin Kaut, RW, Dynamo Pardubice (Cze)
With an October birthdate, Kaut is one of the older players to be selected in the first round. On the one hand, that means his room for potential development is a bit less than it would be for the younger set. On the other hand, he is closer to ready. Throw in the fact that he has already spent a season and a half playing the Czech Extraliga against men, showing well in higher profile events like the European Champions League and the Czech league playoffs, while starring among players closer to his own age (although still mostly older) for the Czech U20 team at the WJC and we are looking at a player who is very close to being ready to contribute in the NHL. A hard working winger with a strong, well-rounded skill set, he was much more impressive at the men’s league level this year than 2017 first rounder Filip Chytil was last year, for what it’s worth.
18. Columbus Blue Jackets – Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat (Liiga)
Columbus has often been successful zigging when the rest of the league zagged early on draft day in recent years. Think Zach Werenski, who had varied reports in his draft year, or selecting Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall in 2016 ahead of the so-called “consensus” third best talent in Jesse Puljujarvi. Even though the Blue Jackets have studiously avoided drafted high out of GM Jarmo Kekalainen’s native Finland, he almost has to draft Kotkaniemi here, a player who, by dint of his skill set and incredibly advanced hockey mind, should have been drafted three or four picks earlier. If everyone is zigging this time, the Blue Jackets can zag. The amount of success Kotkaniemi has had at such a young age in Liiga is very impressive and he could be a top six center in the NHL within a couple of years.
19. Philadelphia Flyers – Liam Foudy, C, London (OHL)
Last year, with the second of two first round picks, the Flyers went against the grain and off the board to select Sault Ste. Marie center Morgan Frost, an elite skater who had only recently started to come into his own and play up to his skill set. Back in the Soo, Frost exploded this year to be one of the best players in junior hockey. Foudy has some of the same characteristics. A very late bloomer, who ascended to a top six role with London after the Knights sold off a number of their veterans at mid-season, he went from an obscure depth player to perhaps the hottest skater in the OHL in the season’s second half. A blistering, explosive skater, Foudy has also shown that he has exciting scoring touch.
20. Los Angeles Kings – Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
While the Kings valuations of players has changed since the Lombardi/Sutter tandem was replaced by Blake/Stevens, they still have Mike Futa playing a heavy role in the scouting department and they still love drafting CHL prospects and they value size coupled with skating ability. Noel has both – especially the former – in spades. Standing at 6-5”, and over 200 pounds, he is a lot more than just a big banger, as his hands are surprisingly soft and he has a nose for the net. He positions himself aggressively to maximize his potential impact and can contribute to the scoresheet, although he needs to be more selfish to shoot more often. Of other recent big men drafted early, Noel is more Alex Tuch than Jordan Greenway or Nick Ritchie. You could do a lot worse at 20th overall.
21. San Jose Sharks – Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
Ty Smith is too good to still be available here, and if it were not for a notably rough game at the CHL Top Prospects showcase and a so-so finish to his season at the WU18s, he would have been gone at least five picks earlier. A great transition defenseman who was an offensive driver in the WHL, he plays a lot stronger than his small size would suggest. His positional game is also advanced, giving him more of a positive impact in his own zone than undersized offensive defensemen usually have. The ceiling here is something along the lines of Ryan Ellis. The floor is closer to Jared Spurgeon. He would immediately become the best defenseman in the system.
22. Ottawa Senators (from Pittsburgh) – Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL)
It used to be that the Senators could be relied upon to draft a Swede or two in the draft. Last year, with only four picks, they could not and the year prior, they used one of their five on Jonathan Dahlen, who subsequently was traded to Vancouver for Alex Burrows. We are here to set things right. Lundestrom is a smart skater with very impressive puck skills who has already spent two seasons in the SHL with Lulea, where he has been a teammate of new Ottawa goalie-of-the-future Filip Gustavsson. With only one more year left on his contract with Lulea, and as much men’s league experience as he already has under his belt, Lundestrom could be a very quick riser.
23. Anaheim Ducks – Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL)
Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler are getting up in years and while the Ducks have Sam Steel and Troy Terry coming up fast, there is never a guarantee that amateur centers stick in the middle. Getting talent is never a bad thing and in taking Thomas, Anaheim would be adding quite a bit. Thomas has been a more consistent offensive producer in his draft year than Steel was in his, but their overall skill sets match up fairly nicely. Thomas may have a slight edge on playmaking, while Steel was slightly skewed to finishing. Thomas reads the play well and is trusted in all zone, all situations. He can look like he lacks intensity, but that might also be masked by his anticipation and positioning not requiring him to let his motor go for long stretches like some others.
24. Minnesota Wild – Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat Oulu (Liiga)
It can be challenging to guess at what any first time GM will do to lead off his first draft in the big chair, but with new Minnesota GM Paul Fenton, we have his long track record with Nashville to consider, as he played a big role in scouting for the Predators. One thing he always did was draft players with big upsides who others might have spotted warts on. Kupari is one such player. An incredibly fast skater, he has enough puck skills to put those wheels to good use, but a tough go at the WJC as a 17-year-old may have turned off some. Considering Nashville’s recent success with Scandinavian prospects in general, this might be a good match for Fenton’s first time in the spotlight.
25. Toronto Maple Leafs – Jonatan Berggren, RW, Skelleftea Jr (SuperElit)
Even though Kyle Dubas has ascended to the throne in Toronto, the Maple Leafs still have super scout Thommie Bergman giving the team a leg up on all things Sweden. Berggren does not fit the profile that most pundits always want Toronto to go in (center and/or right-shooting defenseman) but between his speed and puck skills, he has superstar potential. He was dominant this year in SuperElit, Sweden’s top junior league and was Sweden’s leading scorer – by a landslide – in their bronze-medal winning WU18 run. The Leafs can afford to be patient with Berggren while he takes his lumps in men’s hockey in Sweden.
26. New York Rangers (from Boston) – Grigori Denisenko, LW, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (KHL)
Those who like Denisenko, like him a lot. He has detractors, who lament his occasional on-ice disciplinary problems, but none doubt his skills with the puck or his ability to be a positive offensive contributor. A high end skater, he flashes a goal-scorer’s finishing touch as well. Some think he could be drafted much higher than this, but others are concerned by his lack of experience in international events, or in the KHL. With three picks in the first round, the Rangers can afford to swing for the fences at least once, that is, if they do not trade one of those picks for other assets, which they are reportedly open to doing.
27. Chicago Blackhawks (from Nashville) – Jared McIsaac, D, Halifax (QMJHL)
A talented blueliner often overlooked on his own team, last year by first overall pick Nico Hischier, and this year by projected third overall pick Filip Zadina, McIsaac is a two-way player who combines elements of puck moving skill, advanced positional play, skating ability, size, strength and maturity. He excels at getting the transition to offense started, first stripping the puck from an opponent, and then pushing it up ice either with a clean pass past the blueliner or carrying it up himself. Along with Chicago’s top two picks from last year, Henri Jokiharju and Ian Mitchell, McIsaac has the inherent talent to be part of the Blackhawks’ future defensive corps, as Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook slow with age.
28. New York Rangers (from Tampa Bay) – Jesse Ylonen, RW, Espoo United (Mestis)
The most impactful draft eligible skater in Finland’s second highest men’s league, Ylonen, whose father Juha spent time in the NHL with Phoenix, Tampa and Ottawa, would give the Rangers another talented puckhandler who could play with pace. While he was a prolific goal scorer for Espoo, his sill set projects him as more of a playmaker going forward. His skill set is worthy of the first round, although he will need a few more years to play a game that suits the North American professional world. His next step should be growing more comfortable in a team environment and not trying to dazzle his way to glory.
29. St. Louis Blues (from Winnipeg) – Rasmus Sandin, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
The Blues have leaned towards OHL talents in recent drafts, a trait that has served them well with a few high end prospects already in the show (Vince Dunn) or very close to joining (Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou). They also prefer to use their early picks on players who can contribute offensively. With Sandin, who could easily have been taken up to ten spots earlier, the St. Louis should be happy to be in place to stop his fall. Steady in his own zone and capable of flash in the offensive end, Sandin adjusted very well to the North American game after coming over from Sweden after the season had already begun. He is expected to go back to Rogle in the SHL next season but could be a contributor to his NHL team within a few short years.
30. Detroit Red Wings (from Vegas) – Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
Between Hughes and McLeod, Detroit would be gaining a big boost to the speed available in the system. As he was a late birthday (about one week too young to have been eligible for the 2017 draft) McLeod has had few opportunities to play internationally for Canada. In OHL play, he has steadily progressed from a depth scorer to a front line, all zones force down the middle. He could show more creativity, but he is a very good skater, has puck skills and finishing ability and has an advanced hockey IQ.
31. Washington Capitals – Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (Allsvenskan)
Washington, more than most teams, shows clear and distinctive geographic preferences on draft day. They prefer to scout the WHL, Sweden, Russia, and Switzerland. The latter nation does not have anyone this year who would fit in the first round, but they could take power play quarterback Calen Addison or the more well-rounded blueliner Alexander Alexeyev from the WHL, the big explosive goal scorer from Russia in Kirill Marchenko, or any number of prospects from Sweden, including Olofsson. I am going with the 200 foot center here as their competitive window is still very much open and with his successful year in top flight hockey for Timra, is more advanced than the others who would be fits. His hockey IQ is exceptional, but Olofsson really does everything well.
