Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek...typically.
I have added the word “typically” to the traditional opening line of this column for the time being, as Mo Salah has personally taken the most important decision and turned it into an automatic one...for now. Last week, I talked at length about the rationale in backing Salah for captaincy, not only for the coming gameweek, but for several weeks to come, which is putting me in a bit of an odd position with the concept of this column. More on that to follow. No need to spill all the beans in the introduction.
Instead, a quick review of how things have looked since last week. As promised, virtually everyone with a pulse gave Salah the armband. He currently sits at the highest rostered percentage in FPL history and, when looking at effective ownership (EO), a metric used to determine how “effective” one of your player’s points hauls in a given gameweek would be to your rank, as naturally, the more people who have the same player, the less impact that player’s score is going to help you move up the ranks. Well, among managers in the Top 10k, an area you want to be in and one from which to pull information, particularly at this stage of the season and beyond, because if you are ranked that high at this point, you have a good idea of what you are doing.
So yeah, Salah’s EO last week was something like 198%. “How does one have a percentage above 100?”, you ask? Well, by giving him the armband, he is basically being selected twice. So that is to say, in Week 10, for those managing high-ranking teams, it is pretty easy to do the math. Ninety-nine percent of managers have Salah in their side to begin with and 99% of THOSE managers gave Salah the armband. And this is precisely why I advised sticking with him rather than risk going with someone else. Yes, there were dozens of players who outscored Salah in Week 10, as he was only able to provide a single assist and five points - his second-lowest return of the season. But imagine with that armband rate the way it was, Salah puts up a double-digit haul, and you guess wrong on your pick. It’s like setting yourself up for a red arrow before your 10 other players have yet to have a say in the matter. It’s like driving through really bad weather. You COULD risk it, but the standard advice would be not to.
I am beginning to realize that my introduction is already morphing into the points I want to make in this week’s column. That is the power and control Salah is wielding with his brilliant season so far. But, just to set the stage properly, I feel the need to officially say - let’s dive into the Week 11 edition of Captain Obvious...
You should probably captain Mo Salah and not think twice about it. The End.
Right, now...how to fill the time? This feels like one of those homework assignments back in grade school when the teacher instructs you to write X-amount of words on a particular subject, let’s say, for the sake of example, 800 words. You sit down to write and realize you have nothing to say after about 50. So the task becomes how to stretch those 50 words into 800. Its like trying to stretch an ill-fitting trash bag onto to a too-large can. But hey, I have already completed a paragraph by explaining an analogy. I think this tactic is starting to come back to me.
Okay, let me attempt to be truly helpful. First, let me simply state that my opinion of Salah as a captain for this coming gameweek has not changed a bit from last week, and I spent plenty of word space explaining my reasoning for ignoring all other options for the armband. Please, have a read here if you did not last week, and you will get caught up with the rest of what is to come now.
Now then, the first legitimate question to challenge the idea of focusing solely on Salah is that the fixture is a little iffy. It may seem strange to say but West Ham are not only a top four side in the table right now, more importantly, they are PLAYING like a top four side. This will also be a match away from Anfield. Typically, when you have a candidate for captaincy playing a top four side on the road, you have instant justification for looking at other options. But, as this broken records continues to skip along, all I can say is that Salah has made the captaincy climate anything but typical.
First of all, as I said last week, you simply ignore fixtures and matchups with Salah right now. Yes, West Ham are playing attractive football and have already shown they can get results against the league’s traditional best. If you think it would be better to back a player with a better fixture (let us take Ivan Toney playing at home to Norwich, for example), then that is ultimately your decision but realize this - Salah has already played the leagues other teams in the top four - Manchester City and Chelsea, and wound up with double-digit returns against both. Meanwhile, the only time he blanked this season was in a fixture you would swear would guarantee a haul - at home to Burnley. So there is no rhyme or reason with the fixtures right now, and really, it is not like West Ham are doing well because of staunch defending. They have conceded in seven of ten league games so far, eleven goals in total. Bear in mind, Chelsea and Manchester City have conceded only nine goals COMBINED. So, while West Ham do not have a terrible defensive record, there is nothing to suggest that they will suddenly find a way to keep Salah down.
I will give you one more bit of information before moving on with the Salah talk (that’s right, I have another idea in mind for those who MUST think of an Option B). How has Salah fared in this fixture before. Well, against this mostly-same side last year, on West Ham’s ground, Salah bagged a brace. He also scored a goal in the reverse fixture at Anfield. Bottom line, anything that is causing you trepidation about backing Salah this weekend based on the matchup really should not bother you.
Okay. I would suggest folks who have read this far may want to stop, because I am about to discuss the one possible alternative this week, for those who simply have to play outside the box. I mean, I get it. I pride myself on being a non-conformist. I understand the desire to not blindly follow a herd. It’s okay, I got you.
Despite the control Mo Salah has on the captaincy game right now, it is still my job every week to scan the FPL landscape to make sure there is not a potential challenger. Last week, and again this is even with the hindsight that Salah only returned five points, was easy. There was no one even worth using one breath on in my view. If I am honest though, that is not the case this week. There is one play I would be willing to think about challenging Salah with and that is Chelsea’s Reece James.
You heard me.
Just to get out in front of this, no, this is not simply a matter of “chasing last week’s points”. Often times, we trap ourselves into reading too much into what a player did in their previous game, but when you look at what Reece James has done in the time he has been given, his production has been positively insane. James has only three starts on the season in which he played past the all-important 60-minute threshold, and what he has done with those three games has been just plain ridiculous.
Week 3 - at Arsenal - 18 points, 1 goal, 1 assist, a clean sheet and three bonus points
Week 9 - home to Norwich - 13 points, 1 goal, 1 clean sheet, one bonus point
Week 10 - at Newcastle - 21 points, 2 goals, 1 clean sheet and three bonus points
That totals 52 points in those three games. Seventeen and a third points per game. These three games have given him as many points Trent Alexander-Arnold has on the season, and the Liverpool fullback has started eight games to a 60 minute or more shift compared to James’ three. It is clear to me, if the fixture looks appealing, a playing James has to join the armband debate, if only getting “honorable mention” status this week.
The issue with James is the risk that he does not start, and even more importantly, that if he does not start, a real threat of coming off the bench for a 1 point cameo. This is why I felt tempted to avoid mentioning him at all. Four times this season, James has had a 1 point return, three of those were late cameos while the other was a 47-minute appearance against Liverpool. If there was ever a more boom-or-bust kind of player, than this would certainly be the guy. I could not in good conscious recommend a player that could burn you with a 1-pointer from off the bench. However, due to what occurred for Chelsea in the Champion’s League this week, I am feeling EXTREMELY confident that James will start and the fixture looks such that a fourth double-digit return is surely a possibility when the fixture is at home against Burnley.
That big news is - James, and Ben Chilwell for that matter, were both handed full rests in their CL tie midweek. Given the form the duo are in, I have no doubt in my mind, barring an injury issue that goes unannounced before the deadline, that James will indeed start here. That is the one piece of information that one has to feel strongly about in order to justify backing James and I think the justification is there this week. He could have a monster round and I go right back to leaving him off the captaincy radar entirely in Week 12. Why? Because rest and rotation is still a part of Thomas Tuchel’s style and, with an international break coming up, were James to play a significant amount of minutes in international play, I would immediately dismiss him as an armband candidate, because a shred of doubt about him starting would be there. It is not there this week though, so there you have it. If you insist on knowing who can challenge Salah this week, James is the one and only in my view.
And there you have it. Another look at the captaincy debate for the round ahead. Good luck with your selection this week, and may your arrows be green.
