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Captain Obvious: Week 3

Heung-Min Son

Heung-Min Son

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Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.

Remember how practically everyone was beaming over a giant Week 1 score, where you could not go wrong by picking your captain from the two clear-cut candidates that stood out? You didn’t actually think things were going to be that easy all season, did you?

Week 2 was more of a reality check of what to expect from FPL - some ups and some downs. One can only hope in a given week that the ups outweigh the downs. When you get off to a good start, that is a very difficult thing to accomplish. After enjoying the rarefied air of a 5-digit overall rank following a banger of a Week 1, yours truly suffered his first red arrow, despite a 65-point round, which was nine points above the round average, and yet my reward was a drop down to a rank in the 300ks. What would have given me the extra points to at least maintain my Week 1 rank? Nailing a captain that returned something. I had gone with Salah and, considering that he and Bruno Fernandes combined for over 90% of armband choices across the league in Week 2, I cannot complain too much about a three-point return doubled as opposed to Fernandes’ dreaded one-point return.

When I wrote last week’s column, it felt a bit odd. It was too simple to return and nominate the same two players and expect it to work out perfectly. Something had to go pear-shaped and, while I do not wish a disappointing armband return for anyone out there, I am actually oddly pleased that Week 2 went the way it did, because now...things just got real.

Between the fixtures on tap and the emergence of new options, whether because of two game’s worth of production, an impressive debut for a very strong-looking side, or an FPL mainstay who has finally settled on where to play this season...the number of potential captains to talk about has doubled. If you are like me, this is music to your ears. The more options there are, the more variation there is. The more variation there is, the more ground you can gain by picking the right player. Plus, it just make the entire gameweek more exciting when several players are in the spotlight.

Right, let me refrain from beating around the bush and dive head first into the Week 3 edition of Captain Obvious...

Mo Salah - 12.5m (roster % - 54.6, last week - 55.8)

Opponent - Chelsea (home)

I know what you are thinking…”hey Steve, I thought we were going to see some new names around here?” Patience, folks...patience. We do need to address the “big two” names from the first two weeks because, despite a blank for both last week, and no matter what fixture is on tap, both Salah and Fernandes are going to see their fair share of armband investment across the league. That said, this is probably a top three “toughest fixtures” for Liverpool this season, with playing Chelsea on the road my pick for the very toughest. The advantage of playing at home is one of the few positives about backing Salah, or anyone from Liverpool for that matter, this week.

Perhaps the mood would be different if the Reds ripped Burnley apart last weekend with a five-goal barrage, but that still would not change what is alarming about this fixture, which is that Chelsea have the strongest looking defense here in the early going, yet to concede a single goal and allowing only one big chance to their opponent in their first two games. Sometimes, the best way to pick a captain is to find reasons to eliminate other possibilities until you’ve come down to the last man standing. Given this fixture, that is how I would comfort myself when narrowing down my selection.

That said, even though you can pick up on my hesitation with Salah as a captain option, there is always the chance he can return something. But, two more points to make if you are thinking about him - One, you have to think his ceiling is low. Chelsea are not going to keep clean sheets all season long, but they look like a side that will be very difficult to put more than one past. The second point - this is an early-season mega-matchup between two sides that have aspirations to win the league title. Typically, fixtures like this tend to be played tight, Neither side wants to concede that first goal. In this same matchup at Anfield last season, the Blues came away with a 0-1 win.

Bruno Fernandes - 12.1m (roster % - 57.7, last week - 56.9)

Opponent - Wolves (away)

Right, what to expect from Fernandes, who put up twenty points one week, a single point the next? Well, I am going to go out on a limb and make a guarantee this week. A stone cold guarantee. Bruno Fernandes will put up an FPL score somewhere between 1 and 20. He will have a better score than last week, but not as good as Week 1. I have seen the future and have made a brave prediction, haven’t I?

Okay, okay, there is more to it than that, I will concede. So what then, if anything, is appealing about Fernandes in Week 3? Well, for one, when you look at the fixture, Fernandes immediately demands more faith in a return when taking on Wolves as opposed to Salah against Chelsea. However, while the Reds were able to take care of business with Burnley last weekend, United struggled, coming away with a tepid 1-1 draw against a Southampton side many had pegged as relegation-fighters this season. Fernandes saw a dip in goal involvement, taking half as many shots as he did in Week 1, with only one hitting the target, as opposed to three on target against Norwich.

That is another factor to consider...how much stock can we put into Fernandes’ huge Week 1 haul when we have to admit, it came against the worst defense in the league in the Canaries? Does what happened in Week 2 raise an even bigger red flag when looking at this week’s clash at Molineux Stadium? Let us also not forget (it was much easier to after Week 1) that United’s attack is not at full strength. Jadon Sancho is still waiting for his first PL start, and we are still without the influence of Edinson Cavani or Marcus Rashford. Paul Pogba looks to have come back down to earth after being the main architect of United’s Week 1 explosion. This is a side that is still not as settled as Chelsea or even Liverpool are. (Manchester City cannot be included in any discussion about “settled” sides when talking fantasy football) Also, as food for thought, Wolves, despite not having a point on the table yet, nor a goal or clean sheet to their name, are a much better side than the table would suggest. To give up only a single goal to the likes of Leicester City and Tottenham is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, particularly with first-teamer Willy Boly out injured. As much as United should feel motivated to improve on last week’s performance, I have to think Wolves are equally, if not more so, hungry to come away with a positive result here. Due to the fixture, I am confident more managers will back Fernandes over Salah, but the days of the two combining for 90% or more of all armbands around the league are over...for now.

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Heung-Min Son - 10.1m (roster % - 24.7)

Opponent - Watford (home)

Okay then, let’s get cracking with a couple new names and what better place to start off than with a weapon who is at home playing newly-promoted Watford and their suspect defense? That is really all the criteria you need, no matter what the result is, to confirm that you have made a logical decision - taking a proven, consistent goal/assist threat like Son, see he is playing home to the Hornets, and giving him the armband. Simple, right? Well...kind of.

What should be good news for Spurs as a whole and possibly even beneficial, at least for Week 3, for Son, is that Harry Kane has himself announced this week that he will be staying with Tottenham. For how long, who knows, but for the next four months and change, he cannot go anywhere else. So now you have what is already a tantalizing matchup against promoted Watford and you add in last year’s Golden Boot winner into the attack and...yeah, things could get ugly.

Ahh, but there are some things to consider. First, we are not sure Nuno Espirito Santo will start Kane at the weekend. It may make sense to introduce him from the bench. It’s a not-necessarily-a-punishment-but-not-immediately-pretending-that-whole-transfer-saga/distraction-didn’t-happen sort of thing. In other words, Santo is sure to make things right with Kane as the two get down to the business of trying to win hardware. But, given how Tottenham were able to beat Manchester City in their first home game without Kane, they should not feel any pressure in immediately putting him into the XI for what is, on paper, one of the easier fixtures of the season.

Whether Kane starts or not, we can be pretty certain Dele Alli will, and that is what the other concern for Son is. As last season was wearing down, Son had earned himself spot kick duties, but, as we saw last weekend, Santo gave the honors to Alli. So, even if Kane is not in the XI, Son may not be on pens anymore. When asked about it, Alli said himself that the penalty he took, and any penalties moving forward is the “manager’s decision”. Since Alli earned the spot kick with the foul on him in the area, perhaps Santo wanted to reward Alli by giving him the chance in that particular instance. We could very well see someone other than Alli take the next pen should Alli not be directly involved in whatever infraction that granted said penalty. All of this is to say that, with Kane back and Alli in the mix, Son’s chances of taking a penalty has gone down from a near-100% chance to about a 20-25% chance heading into the Watford game.

That said, I do not want to put too much weight on that negative aspect of Son’s armband appeal, because when you are playing a fixture like home to Watford, there is still room for Spurs to feed more than one mouth and with Kane back in the mix, after only managing a single goal in each of their first two matches, the atmosphere is rich for Tottenham to put a few goals in.

Michail Antonio - 7.7m (roster % - 38.1)

Opponent - Crystal Palace (home)

It is early doors, such will always be the case when putting a captaincy column together in the middle of the week, but from polling around social media and general discussion, Antonio may be earning the distinction of “most-captained player” in the upcoming round. It should be close. When it comes to form, what is there to say. Antonio has played a part in SIX goals in his first two games. SIX. Just for context, Manchester United are second in the league in goals scored so far this season, as a club, and they have six. Antonio, himself, has been involved in more scoring than all other clubs. Not all other players...clubs. That, my friends, is form.

Now, Crystal Palace may seem a very positive fixture in which to ride Antonio’s hot hand...err, I mean, foot. But, upon closer inspection, the Eagles’ defense has gotten off to a very promising start. Yes, they conceded three goals on opening day, but playing at Stamford Bridge for Chelsea’s home opener is not exactly the best sample to use. Fact is, they limited the Blues chances and absolutely stifled Brentford’s last week, collecting their first clean sheet of the season in the process. I am not saying prepare for West Ham to get shut down, but merely want to point out that Palace are not the pushovers they may appear to be, at least not through the first two games of the season.

Here is what is true, though, no argument to be made - no defense can shut down Antonio at the moment. West Ham’s attack is so well-balanced right now, with the trio of Jarrod Bowen, Pablo Fornals and Saïd Benrahma playing behind Antonio. All of these players are true threats, so for a defense, it is not as simple a case as “shut Antonio down” like you would, say “shut Zaha down”, using Palace as an example. The Hammers have a nice spread of weapons. Focusing on shutting one down is only going to create more space for someone else. So, try as Palace might to keep Antonio out, they are going to have to put on a dazzling defensive display to keep the entire West Ham attack down. Sure, Benrahma has shown in consecutive games his ability to put up armand-worthy numbers, but Antonio is the safer pick here, and I would say enjoy doubling his points while you can, because track record will indicate that not only can this form not be sustained (that’s rather obvious) but Antonio’s injury history would leave even the most optimistic manager a little worried about how long he can stay fit, nevermind average three goal involvements a game.

Honorable Mentions -

Folks, the elite picks for captaincy has doubled this week, and the amount of folks who I feel just miss the cut has grown as well. First, just to confirm what was mention while talking about Son, if you happen to have Harry Kane in your side, 7.4% of you do, somehow...then I am going to assume you do not have Son. If you were willing to risk rostering Kane and his enormous price tag though all the drama of the first two weeks that netted a total of zero points, then you have to be enough of a risk-taker to give him the armband against Watford, despite the risk. I mean, if you have Kane and he has Watford at home, and you feel there is no good reason to captain him, you really have to ask yourself what you are doing with him to begin with.

Danny Ings - Oh, what a cracker of a goal last week from Ings, who has scored in each of his first two games. Much backing of Aston Villa to begin the season was based on their opening three fixtures, which looked the most lucrative than any first three for any other club in the league. Well, Ings made good on those who invested in him for those first two and now looks to do it a third time. Only problem is, that “third easy game” may not be as easy as we thought before the season started. Brentford are coming to town and they bring with them a flawless defensive record. Now, I stated earlier that Chelsea have to eventually concede from time to time, naturally the same rings true for the Bees. It is Brentford’s defending that keeps Ings out of what would have probably been in the top tier of armband choices this week. Were I forced to bet, I’d say Brentford are due to concede and I am happy to have Ings in my side, but I just feel the Bees have shown that they are not going to be pushovers, even when they do concede. So that lowers Ings’ ceiling for me. I like “brace or better” potential when captaining a forward, but my gut says one goal is Ings’ maximum output here. Not a disaster, by any means, but not top tier armband material for me.

Right, these mentions are supposed to be brief, so let me shift to being a bit more concise the rest of the way.

City assets - If you have them, you probably don’t want to sell them, but do you trust any with the armband? I simply do not. Too much risk of any star player getting benched and too much spread of points. In any given game, there are legit a half dozen attacking players that could be the top scorer among his teammates. I am not a big fan of one-in-six chances. I have seen The Deer Hunter, no thanks.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin - Nine shots taken over his first two games, only Antonio and Salah have shot more. Going against a Brighton side that has only given up one goal in two, but that was with Burnley and Watford as opponents. The Toffees should provide a much bigger challenge and if you think they will take it to the Seagulls, DCL is your best armband choice from that side. Richarlison looked good last weekend, but I find him to be way more hit-or-miss while DCL offers more of that consistency you like when picking a captain.

Romelu Lukaku - Yes! You didn’t think I would end things without mentioning last week’s return of Lukaku, did you? It is one of the hottest debates going around the community now - do I get Lukaku in immediately, or do i wait for the fixtures to improve. Personally, I am going with middle ground here. While I have two free transfers to make the move for him now, I have mapped out how the shape of my team will look with him and do not mind paying the extra .1 or .2m to bring him in next week, with a full international break out of the way as well. Still, if you took the plunge immediately, good on you. I think he has a solid chance at a goal despite what is supposed to be a tough fixture at Anfield. But, like others that make the honorable mentions list, I feel the matchup does limit his ceiling, so Lukaku rests in this space this week.

And there you have it. I knew we would see the “captain template” get shattered soon enough. We have arrived. Good luck with your selection this week, and may your arrows be green.