The Wizards have offered Bradley Beal a contract extension worth as much as allowable, with his choice of length:
- One year, $34,502,129 ($34,502,129 annually)
- Two years, $71,764,428 ($35,882,214 annually)
- Three years, $111,786,897 ($37,262,299 annually)
But if Beal waits, his max contract in 2021 free agency projects to be far larger:
- Re-sign: Five years, $218 million($44 million annually)
- Leave: Four years, $161 million ($40 million annually)
By waiting, Beal would also give himself a chance to make an All-NBA team either of the next two seasons and qualify for a super-max deal. That projection:
- Super-max: Five years, $254 million ($51 million annually)
So, it makes a lot of sense for Beal to decline the extension now. Yet, not everyone believes he will.
John Wall, via Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington:“I think he will sign it,” Wall said at his annual backpack giveaway on Saturday in Prince George’s County, MD.
“Brad’s a very smart guy. He’s going to make the best decision for himself and the organization. He enjoys D.C. I mean, he won the Community Assist Award for all the things he did here. He loves playing with me.”
Wall made it clear he will not counsel Beal on the decision, saying the two-time All-Star shooting guard “is his own man.”
“At the end of the day, you never know. You can sign an extension like I signed an extension and then an injury can happen or something years later,” Wall said.
“I talk about it every day, man. Sometimes you can bank on yourself, but sometimes it’s not good to bank on yourself. I had the opportunity where if I didn’t want to sign, I could have waited one more year and tried to make All-NBA again. It’s very tough. You’ve only got like seven guys that are going to make All-NBA every year. So, I was like ‘if they offer me the extension, I’m gonna sign it.’”
Many players wouldn’t comment on a teammate’s contract situation. Wall often seems oblivious to norms like that. Even with stating Beal is smart and will make the decision for himself, Wall crossed a line many wouldn’t.
Wall also has a unique perspective. He signed a contract extension then got hurt. He would’ve gotten far less money if he waited.
But Wall got the super max when he signed. If he waited, he could’ve gotten a longer super-max deal with another All-NBA team. But he also could’ve (and in hindsight, would’ve) fall out of super-max eligibility entirely.
Beal is in the opposite situation. His regular max in 2021 free agency will be higher than the largest extension he could sign now. The super max is also a possibility if he waits.
Sure, there’s a risk Beal gets hurt or declines. But he’s just 26 and plays shooting guard, a position of need around the league. Odds strongly favor him getting more money if he waits.
Wall is right: Beal will decide for himself. Beal will assess how much he values financial security and what he thinks of Washington. There are reasons to extend.
Like most, I think the reasons not to extend carry more weight.
