By the time Christmas has come and gone — about a third of the way into the season — the top eight teams in each conference aren’t set but historically don’t see a lot of movement. A couple of teams fall out (maybe due to injury), and a couple climb up, but we have a sense of who teams are. This week’s NBC Sports Week 10 NBA Power Rankings reflect that, with four of the top five being who we expected: Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Denver.
1. Boston Celtics (23-6, Last Week No. 2). Christmas Day’s complete team win over the Lakers shows why the Celtics are on top of this NBA Power Rankings and how good they can be when not relying on the 3-pointers to fall. From the start Boston attacked and got the ball into the paint against the Lakers. This is the league’s best starting five: Jayson Tatum is an MVP candidate, Kristaps Porzingis opens up the offense (and had 28 and 11 against the Lakers), Jaylen Brown can take over for stretches or a game, and the backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White is as solid a two-way group as there is in the league. By the way, this wasn’t a significant play earlier in the week but… damn Tatum.
Dude pic.twitter.com/BR9rDJTCtj
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) December 23, 2023
2. Milwaukee Bucks (22-8, LW 3). On Christmas Day against the Knicks, the Bucks offense found its groove, but they couldn’t get the stops they needed – which is the looming concern for this team as a contender. Milwaukee’s defense is better than the season-long numbers show — they have the ninth-best defense in the league over the past two weeks, according to Cleaning the Glass — but the Knicks were a reminder that defensive rebounding and transition defense could be issues that hurt this team (especially against opponents like the Knicks comfortable from the midrange). This is a second round of the playoffs and beyond concern, but for a team with championship aspirations it is a legitimate one. The Bucks are on the road for five of their next six.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (22-7, LW 1). Karl-Anthony Towns returned to the lineup on Tuesday and scored 16 in a loss to OKC, but it was good to see him back on the court. Minnesota has entered the stretch of the schedule that will show us just how sustainable this impressive start to the season is. The Timberwolves lost to the Thunder on Tuesday and are now 3-2 in this tough stretch with the Mavericks, Lakers, Knicks and Pelicans next, followed by four road games. By the middle of January, we will have a real sense of how this team handles adversity.
4. Philadelphia 76ers (20-9, LW 4). Joel Embiid was out Christmas Day (and will be out against the Magic on Wednesday) with a sprained ankle, and it’s been a reminder of just how central the reigning MVP is to everything the 76ers do. Besides health, another early season concern about this team is their clutch play: The 76ers are 4-7 with a -8.5 net rating in games within five points within the last five minutes. That could be a problem come the playoffs. Wednesday’s game against the Magic is the second in a four-game road trip with stops in Houston and Chicago next (part of a home-and-home with the Bulls).
5. Denver Nuggets (22-10, LW 6). Steve Kerr can complain all he wants about what happened on Christmas Day, but Nikola Jokic is not a flopper who is trying to draw fouls — don’t take my word for it, ask Bam Adebayo, who recently said on the OG Podcast (the Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller pod): “The thing that I most like about him is like he don’t flop… he not tryna get 16-17 free throws.” Denver has won five in a row and has some interesting games this week against the resurgent Grizzlies and then the Thunder.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (19-9, LW 5). Take a step back and look at the leap the Thunder have made this season: 10 games over .500 and sitting third in the West, with a top-six offense and defense led by a true top-five player in the league and MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That is how you build a team, and if anything Sam Presti’s crew is ahead of schedule. Things are not perfect — this team gives up a lot of 3-pointers and when they fall, like the Lakers did against them, it means a loss — but they are outstanding. How good gets tested against a gauntlet this week: Knicks, at Denver, Nets, Celtics.
7. Los Angeles Clippers (18-12, LW 7). The schedule and injuries caught up with the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard missed his first three games this season due to a hip contusion, and the Clippers dropped the first two of those. However, Los Angeles is still 15-5 in this latest run and has the fourth-best offense in the NBA over their last 15 games. That has covered up a 22nd-ranked defense in that stretch, but the Clippers have moved the ball behind James Harden and generally looked like a team that’s as much of a threat to Denver as anyone in the West. Interesting home games against the resurgent Grizzlies and the Heat this week.
8. Dallas Mavericks (18-12, LW 9). It’s wild to say, “Mark Cuban no longer owns the Mavericks” but it is now true, the Sands Corporation is the majority owner. It’s also wild to say, “Luka Doncic has taken a step forward this season” but he has and we saw it on Christmas when he dropped 50. This is the best 3-point shooting of his career — 38.7% on 10.4 attempts a game — but that opened up his game and he is shooting the highest percentage of his career at the rim (82.6%). He draws constant doubles but deals with them finding open teammates if they just cut and knock down shots. It’s incredible to watch. Kyrie Irving is ramping up for a return from his heel injury, which would be a boost.
All 50 points from Luka Doncic on Christmas and more 👀pic.twitter.com/Lw0Jv4iZaN
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 26, 2023
9. New York Knicks (17-12, LW 11). Here is the debate I find most interesting about Jalen Brunson: Is he an All-Star starter this season? He’s been good enough averaging 26.1 points and 5.9 assists a game, leading the gritty Knicks to a top-six spot in the East. However, in a conference with Damian Lillard, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey and Donovan Mitchell among others, getting voted into the starting two is a tough ask. Brunson made his case with 38 on Christmas Day against the Bucks, and can do it on the road this week with three challenging games: Thunder, Magic and Pacers.
10. Miami Heat (18-12, LW 15). Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo being back but Jimmy Butler being out for Miami on Christmas Day fits their season — that trio has been together for just seven games (136 total minutes) this season, and has a +2.4 net rating when they do. Miami has no five-man lineup that has played more than eight games and 78 total minutes together (52nd most used lineup in the league), yet in the most Heat of ways they keep winning. Part of that is rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. stepping up and averaging 17.2 points a game on 52.6% shooting with 5.6 rebounds a night over his last five games. Miami heads out on the road for its next five on a West Coast swing.
11. Orlando Magic (18-11, LW 10). Orlando’s place in the East pecking order became clear over a four-game losing streak against Boston, Miami and Milwaukee, (but then the Magic bounced back with wins against the Pacers and Wizards). What do the Magic need to take that next step? Time for Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner to continue to develop, more playmaking at the guard spot and more shooting — the Magic get 26.5% of their points from 3-pointers, the lowest percentage in the league. The Magic take the second-fewest 3-pointers per team (29.6 a game) and hit just 33.9% of them (27th). The Magic host the 76ers (without Embiid) and Knicks before heading out on the road for four.
12. New Orleans Pelicans (17-14, LW 12). It’s hard to watch the Pelicans in the clutch — it’s not just that they go to pound-the-ball isolation plays, but the entire offense becomes stagnant. New Orleans is 5-8 with a -17.8 net rating in games within five points in the final five minutes, and that includes a blown lead loss Tuesday in overtime to the resurgent Grizzlies. It makes the Pelicans less frightening as a playoff team, where the percentage of clutch games goes up — this team is predictable and defendable in the final minutes of a close game. There are some winnable games at home this week for the Pels: the Jazz, Lakers and Nets.
13. Sacramento Kings (17-12, LW 8). De’Aaron Fox is the most overlooked superstar in the league this season. Give the man his flowers, he is averaging 30.2 points and 6.1 assists a game, and when he gets the Kings out in transition he strikes fear into opponents. He’s been playing at an All-NBA level but likely will not be an All-Star starter in a conference with Curry, Doncic and SGA. Sacramento is a good team in a deep conference and, by all reports, is willing to make a bold move at the trade deadline to improve their standing, but is there a deal worth it? Zach LaVine is reportedly open to teaming with Fox, but that’s a lot of money to take on for an isolation-heavy scorer.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers (17-13, LW 14). Credit Max Strus for keeping the Cavaliers’ heads above water while injuries have battered the rotation (Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Donovan Mitchell all missed time last week). The Cavaliers have won 4-of-5 and Strus has averaged 17 points a game in that stretch (although his shooting percentages dipped, having to take on more of a shot creator role). With all the injuries the Cavaliers have been taking more 3-pointers and they may want to stick with that as guys get healthy. A couple of tough games this week — Dallas and Milwaukee — then the schedule softens up for a stretch.
15. Golden State Warriors (15-15, LW 16). Despite the nation watching the Warriors lose on Christmas, overall the Warriors are playing better, they are 5-2 since Draymond Green’s indefinite suspension. The defense is understandably worse without Green — who remains elite on that end of the court — but is still middle of the pack in those seven games, and the Warriors have the sixth-best offense in the league over that stretch. Green is likely out a couple more weeks (at least) but the Warriors are now home for seven in a row starting with Miami Thursday, then Dallas and Orlando.
16. Los Angeles Lakers (16-15, LW 13). LeBron James summed up where the Lakers are after a Christmas Day loss to the Celtics: “I don’t think we’re where we want to be to compete against the top teams… I don’t think we’re healthy right now. We’re still trying to figure our situation out, in terms of how we want to attack each game.” Darvin Ham has been looking for a way to shake things up but the Lakers’ new no point guard starting lineup — LeBron, Anthony Davis, Taurean Prince, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Cam Reddish — has a -20 net rating in limited minutes so far. This does not look like the answer. It may be up to GM Rob Pelinka to find one.
17. Indiana Pacers (16-14, LW 19). A win Tuesday over the Rockets stopped the skid, but the Pacers have still dropped 6-of-8 and the reason is their elite offense has fallen off — it is 19th in the league over the past eight games, and no longer is covering up for a defense that remains the worst in the NBA. Taking a page from the Lakers in the In-Season Tournament Final, teams are blitzing Tyrese Haliburton and showing him constant double-teams, which is leading to double the turnovers from him and transition chances for opponents. It will not be easy to stop the slide with the Bulls, Knicks then two against the Bucks coming up.
18. Houston Rockets (15-13, LW 17). While Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks were stabilizing veterans for this team, there have been very positive long-term signs with players developing. Alperen Şengün just keeps taking steps forward and is averaging 20.8 points and 9.5 rebounds a game. Meanwhile Jabari Smith Jr. is playing some of the best basketball of his career and in his last five games is averaging 19.2 points on 54.2% shooting (41.7% from 3 on 4.8 a game) plus nine rebounds a night. The Rockets are home for their next six starting with the Suns and 76ers first.
19. Brooklyn Nets (15-15, LW 20). They dropped five in a row and stars like Mikal Bridges looked off until the team got right with two games against the Pistons. What happened during the losing streak was the offense struggled and could no longer cover up for a defense that has been surprisingly bad all season (21st in the league). That offense has to get right as the schedule gets tougher for the Nets: They host the Bucks Wednesday then head out on the road for five including a stop in OKC.
20. Phoenix Suns (14-15, LW 18). On Christmas Day a report came out that Kevin Durant was frustrated with the Suns never being healthy — we’re looking at you, Bradley Beal — and the lack of depth in Phoenix. Fans in Phoenix feel the same way — and blame Durant for part of that. That lack of depth and flexibility is directly tied to trades to bring in Durant and Beal — Phoenix ownership chose stars over depth. And it’s not something that can easily be rectified. The Suns promptly went out on Christmas and lost to a Dallas squad without a star (Kyrie Irving) but with depth around Doncic that lifted the team up. The Suns have a chance to get some wins and momentum with Houston and Charlotte up next.
21. Chicago Bulls (14-18, LW 22). The Bulls are now 9-4 without Zach LaVine, but things are going to get harder with center Nikola Vucevic out for a week or so due to a strained groin. DeMar DeRozan has helped keep the Bulls postseason chances alive during this stretch of injuries, but all that’s really done is increase his trade value — whether they can find a home for LaVine or not, the Bulls have to consider trading DeRozan rather than watching him walk for nothing over the summer. It will be tough to keep the good vibes going in Chicago with the Pacers then two against the 76ers coming up this week.
22. Memphis Grizzlies (10-19, LW 24). This ranking feels too low for a Memphis team that is 4-0 since Ja Morant’s return from suspension — he’s averaging 28.8 points and 8.5 assists a game. After beating New Orleans on Tuesday, Memphis is just 4.5 games out of the Play-In. Having the gravity of Morant on the court has opened things up for Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., for example, Bane had 27 points and Jackson 19 and 10 boards in the win over the Pelicans. It’s going to be tough to keep the winning streak going at Denver then at the Clippers this Thursday and Friday.
23. Utah Jazz (13-18, LW 25). Jordan Clarkson boosted his trade value in a return to action Saturday (after missing six games due to injury): He returned to his familiar sixth-man role and promptly dropped 30 on Toronto. Collin Sexton has stayed in the starting point guard role — and he should if he keeps making bounce-to-himself inverse 360 dunks in game. Utah has won 6-of-8 but the schedule gets tougher this week with the Pelicans, Heat and Mavericks.
Collin Sexton bounces it to himself for the self lob! 😲
— NBA (@NBA) December 27, 2023
Jazz-Spurs | Live on the NBA App
📲 https://t.co/zV136vkRBz pic.twitter.com/UVTfE0diYn
24. Atlanta Hawks (12-18, LW 21). The good news for the Hawks is that breakout player Jalen Johnson returned after missing 14 games with a left wrist injury and had 10 points and nine rebounds against the Bulls. More importantly, Johnson is a massive boost to the Hawks otherwise sagging defense. The Hawks will need him with another wing, De’Andre Hunter, who is expected to miss a couple of weeks with a knee issue. Expect Hunter — and much more so Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela — to come up in trade rumors over the next six weeks heading to the trade deadline. The Hawks face the Kings and Wizards in a relatively light week of work.
25. Toronto Raptors (11-18, LW 23). You look at the talent this team has on paper and you keep waiting for the switch to flip, yet they have lost three in a row and 8-of-10, and now the biggest question has to be whether Pascal Siakam (probably not) and OG Anunoby (maybe, depends on his willingness to re-sign) are with this team after the Feb. 8 trade deadline. Toronto has 9-of-10 coming up on the road, including a desperate Detroit team on Saturday night (the second night of a back-to-back for the Raptors).
26. Portland Trail Blazers (8-21, LW 26). Tuesday night’s win over the Kings (despite giving up 43 to De’Aaron Fox) was probably Portland’s best, most complete game of the season. Anfernee Simons is the heartbeat of this team and scored 29, Duop Reath continues to be a revelation off the bench and scored 26, Malcolm Brogan was solid scoring 19, and Scoot Henderson is starting to find his way and had 17 points and 11 assists. It’s a team showing a little promise heading into a week with games against the Hawks, Grizzlies and Hornets.
27. Washington Wizards (5-24, LW 29). Look for the Wizards to be active at the trade deadline, there are a lot of teams interested in Kyle Kuzma — put him on a good team and he becomes a solid, reliable part of the rotation. He could bring a first-round pick back to Washington. There also is reportedly interest in Tyus Jones and Daniel Gafford among others (Jordan Poole is untreatable unless the Wizards want to throw in sweeteners). Washington is home this week against Orlando, Toronto, Brooklyn and Atlanta.
28. Charlotte Hornets (7-21, LW 27). Losers of eight straight (with things not getting easier as they are on a West Coast road swing with the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets up next). Injuries continue to hold this team back with LaMelo Ball (ankle), Brandon Miller (ankle) and Mark Williams (lower back) all out Tuesday against the Clippers. The one bright spot was the return of Cody Martin from injury for his first game of the season, he understandably looked a little rusty but had seven points in almost 25 minutes of action.
29. San Antonio Spurs (4-25, LW 28). It’s been a rough week for Victor Wembanyama, who missed a couple of games due to injury, had just seven points against the Bulls and scored 15 against the Jazz but got pushed around by Lauri Markkanen and company. There are a lot of things Wembanyama is doing right and figuring out, but if one thing is clear it’s he has to get stronger (it’s the biggest difference between him and rookie LeBron, who had an NBA body when drafted). The Spurs are in the Pacific Northwest for two games against Portland before things get tough with the Celtics and resurgent Grizzlies next.
30. Detroit Pistons (2-28, LW 30). The Pistons now own the NBA’s all-time single-season losing streak record at 27 and can tie the all-time record on Thursday against the Celtics (the 2014-15 76ers lost 28 straight across two seasons). Even with an eventual win it only gets worse as the focus will start to turn to whether this team ends the season with the worst record of all time. The lowest win percentages ever was the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats (7-59 record in a strike-shortened season, a .106 win percentage), while the worst over an entire 82-game season is the 1972-73 76ers (9-73, .110 win percentage). Cleaning the Glass projects the Pistons with 13.5 wins, but they should have five already.
Teams that have won more recently than the Pistons:
— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) December 22, 2023
Washington Commanders
Houston Dynamo
East Carolina football
Texas Rangers
