I, for one, cannot wait for the start of the 2023-24 Premier League season. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy betting on some of the smaller leagues, but there’s nothing like waking up on Saturday morning and turning on Premier League Mornings with a sheet full of bets. As we count down the weeks to the kick-off of the season, be sure to check out my summer betting previews, with my latest being a betting preview on Burnley.
For some Arsenal supporters, the end of last season was met with a familiar feeling of disappointment. In the 2021-22 campaign, they continuously dropped points towards the end of the season. Ultimately dropping them outside the top four and a Champions League berth. The following season, they exceeded expectations and competed for a title. Unfortunately, a February dip in form allowed Manchester City to close the gap and win the Premier League title.
Can Arsenal Win the League?
Many Arsenal supporters want to know if last season was a fluke. Can they compete for a title again this season? I’m not so sure the answer is that straightforward.
Last season, Arsenal got off to a fantastic start. They won eight of their first 10, but looking back, the scheduling set them up for early success. Four of their first eight wins came from teams who finished inside the bottom half of the table. Two of those wins came from teams who were relegated at the end of the season. Of those four remaining wins, two came from newly promoted team. This means only two of those first wins were by established top-half teams, and those were played at home.
I am by no means discrediting their wins or their fantastic start. Winning matches in the Premier League is difficult, regardless of the team. However, how you start a season is almost as important as how you finish it. Especially if you’d like to be crowned champion at the end of the season. Yes, Arsenal will be in the title race. Their early schedule can help replicate their early success.
In their first 10 matches, they play seven bottom-half and newly promoted teams. They get Manchester United, Tottenham, and Manchester City at the Emirates. Meaning another fast start is highly likely for the Gunners.
Statistically, Mikel Arteta has had his men exactly where a club should strive for when title-chasing. Arsenal were top-four in possession. They were second in touches in the opponent’s final third, a statistic I correlate highly to expected success. The more touches in the attacking third generally lead to more goals for the attacking team and less for the ones on their heels or absorbing pressure. Arsenal were also great at getting shots on net. They were fifth in shots on target per 90, second in xG, and goals scored.
Defensively they were equally as sound. Second in xGA and third in goals conceded. They also finished in the second-fewest opponent’s touches in the attacking third per game. Now can this success be replicated? Under Arteta, Arsenal have been a top-ten club with a top-four upside.
Much can be said about the importance of defender William Saliba. The dip in form could be correlated with the midseason absence of Saliba. Fortunately for the Gunners, Saliba penned a new four-year agreement and should be fit by the start of the 2023-24 campaign.
Arteta also plans to bolster his backline with the addition of Ajax defender Jurrien Timber. Timber played center-back at Ajax, but Arteta plans to use him as a right-back. Arsenal are losing Granit Xhaka to German club Bayer Leverkusen. But the signing of Declan Rice should be more than enough to fix that void. They also have signed out of favor former Chelsea player Kai Havertz. While at Chelsea, Havertz was playing out of position. At Arsenal, he should be a contributing player in an attacking midfielder role. Arsenal have also been linked to Romeo Lavia, Moussa Diaby, and Jeremie Frimpong. All of which should be able to prove much-needed depth.
That depth will likely benefit them most when chasing silverware. Arsenal’s last bit of silverware came in 2020. They can effectively rotate in the FA Cup in the first round they play and still put out a side that is stacked with talent. Then as the FA Cup, Champions League, and league play are all going on, they will have the depth to navigate through the season. I’m just not sure it translates directly to a Premier League win.
Am I comfortable betting on Arsenal at +550 to win the Premier League? Probably not. Betting on a team that has not won the Premier League since 2003-04, up against arguably the best Premier League team since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United, I’d like to get closer to +800.
As a whole, Arsenal look like a competitive club, especially one that can win the Premier League. However, unlike last season, Arsenal will have a congested schedule with Champions League play. They did have Europa matches, but it was evident in the later stages that Arteta prioritized winning the Premier League over fielding a competitive team during Europa. Arsenal have already seen back-to-back seasons where they couldn’t finish down the stretch.
When forecasting Arsenal’s success this season, it’s also important to consider the other teams in the league. Liverpool should be more competitive than last season, Manchester United have the manager and the squad to make some noise, and outside of having to deal with the Champions League grind, Newcastle look like a team who could be a mainstay in the top four. And most importantly, Manchester City is still Manchester City.
Call me crazy, but I prefer to bet on Newcastle to win at +1600 and to finish top 4 at +160 than put money on Arsenal to win at that price. Newcastle should continue to be a dominant defensive side. The play of Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson isn’t a fluke; more goals are coming. And younger club members, Anthony Gordon, and Joe Wilcock, should continue to grow inside that system.
If you’re dying to make an Arsenal futures bet for this season, there’s a juiced market on FanDuel that is a contender for my favorite Arsenal bet. It’s Arsenal to win zero trophies (-240). Winning trophies is difficult, and it’s probably safer than betting Arsenal to finish top 4 at -220.
Players to Watch
Gabriel Jesus – Forward
I was high on Jesus to start the season last year. I tipped him as one of the players I liked to beat Erling Haaland in the Golden Boot race. Boy, was I wrong. If injury hadn’t derailed his first season with Arsenal, it would’ve been closer, but I doubt he would’ve caught the 36 goals scored by Haaland; he likely wouldn’t have scored the 30 of Harry Kane, either. There are just too many quality scoring options on this Arsenal team and not enough goals to go around for Jesus to eclipse 35 goals.
However, I wanted to add Jesus to the players to watch for his sheer ability to score and the facilitators on this team that should help him do that. In an injury-plagued season, he still managed to score 11 goals. At the midway point of the season, they added Jorginho and Leandro Trossard. Both are great facilitators of the ball. With more time on the training ground, we should see Jesus benefit the most.
Kai Havertz – Midfielder
Havertz at Arsenal will be an interesting experiment to see. He flourished in the Bundesliga. At one point, he became the youngest player to reach 30 goals in Bundesliga history. He used his fluidity and creativity to help facilitate and score goals. Then, when he moved to Chelsea, they transitioned him to center-forward. Despite scoring 32 goals and assisting 15 others, there’s no denying that he was playing out of position. At Arsenal, Arteta will be able to use him where he fits best, whether in the false-9 or in an attacking midfield position.
Former English footballer and Arsenal player Ray Parlour is excited about the future of Havertz at Arsenal. He likens this move to that of Martin Odegaard. When Odegaard left Real Madrid, his career arch was going downward. Now he’s the captain of Arsenal and one of the best players in the Premier League. If Arteta can help develop Havertz the way he has with others, expect big things from him.
Favorite Bet to Look Forward to
Corners! Situational though. And total corners, not so much. Surprisingly Arsenal were second to last in total corners per match. However, with their base 4-3-3 formation, if they get down early or are tied late to a lesser team, total team corners are a fun angle to target. Arsenal already dominate most teams in possession and attacking third touches. The opposing team who packs it in with eight and nine behind the ball late, generally concede a lot of corners to Arsenal. With Gabriel Martinelli, Trossard, and Bukayo Saka on the wings, their team total corner props are something I always have my eye on in that situation.
