Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the first four Play-In games between Arizona State vs Nevada, plus Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson.
Arizona State (-2) vs. Nevada: O/U 133.5
This game is on Wednesday, March 15 and the play-in tournament for a No. 11 seed.
Nevada enters on a three-game losing streak, while Arizona State is 2-3 in the past five games. This has the makeup of a close game and more points than the total lets on.
Arizona State allows 20.2% of their opponents’ points come from the free-throw line and Nevada has the highest free-throw percentage in the NCAA Tournament at 79.2%, which is ranked 6th in the country.
The Wolfpack are 7th in the country with 23.7% of their offensive points coming from the free-throw line, so expect Nevada to be able to score. Nevada scored 71, 69 and 77 points in the past three games and need OT in the past two.
Against teams in the top 100, Nevada is 7-7 and ranks 31st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 20th in offensive turnover percentage (15%) and 80.4% from the free-throw line (16th). Arizona State is 11-11 in those games and top 50 turnover percentages both ways.
The Sun Devils hit 31.6% of their three-pointers in the Pac-12 Tournament and the Wolfpack permit 33.9% of their opponents points to come from three (68th) despite ranking 86th in three-point defensive percentage (32.5%).
I think there will be points in this matchup and the models that I have project this game between 136 and 139 points, so I see some value here.
Considering how many games are extended with fouls and free-throws at the end, we will go Over 133.5 at -115 odds up to 135.0.
Pick: Over 133.5 (1u)
Texas Southern (-2.5) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson: O/U 147.5
Texas Southern has been in this position many times.
Over the last six tournaments, they made March Madness four times and three straight now. In the last two, Texas Southern won by eight and nine points over Mount St. Mary’s and Texas A&M CC.
Although Texas Southern’s 14-20 record indicates a bad basketball team, that is not true. There are two reasons why.
The first, Texas Southern played the fourth-toughest non-conference strength of schedule in the entire country. The Tigers played San Francisco, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Oral Roberts, Houston, Auburn, Samford, and Kansas -- all in November.
The second, the Tigers lost the first five games of SWAC play but were without starting center Joirdon Karl Nicholas in four of those games, along with PJ Henry in all five losses. Since starting 0-5 in conference play, Texas Southern has gone 10-6 since, including three-straight wins to get here.
FDU is ranked 312th Kenpom and played a strength of schedule ranked 362nd, which is the second-easiest in the country. The Knights played one top 150 team all season (lost 83-61 at Pitt) and have an average of 0.62 years of average experience, which is bottom-10 (354th), along with the smallest team in the country (363rd).
There isn’t much to like about an FDU team that also ranks 361st in defensive efficiency (third-worst) with the second-easiest strength of schedule. That is a bad recipe for this inexperienced team that didn’t even win their conference tournament.
Merrimack beat FDU in the NEC Championship Game, but Merrimack is in year four of the NCAA’s four-year DI transition period, so they could not play in the NCAA Tournament.
I loaded up on Texas Southern in the 1H on the ML (-128) and full game on the ML (-134) as I expect the Tigers to advance again.
Pick: Texas Southern ML (1u), Texas Southern 1H ML (1u)
OTHER MARCH MADNESS PICKS
Iowa vs. Auburn
Drake vs. Miami
Furman vs. Virginia
VCU vs. Saint Mary’s
Missouri vs. Utah State
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh
Arizona State vs. Nevada
Louisiana vs. Tennessee
Gonzaga vs. Grand Canyon
Baylor vs. UC Santa Barbara
Charleston vs. San Diego State
Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
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