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As they have every week of the BIG Ten this season, the NBC Sports EDGE Analysts are back to serve up their favorite plays for the BigTen.
Their plays may not involve the marquee games or the biggest stars, but they offer value to the sports bettor.
Week 6 in the Big Ten - Top Plays:
Top Side
Illinois -3.5 (-107) vs. Iowa
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Defensively, we have very similar teams, but offensively, much different.
Iowa’s Spencer Petras would be considered a downgrade to Illinois’ Tommy DeVito and what he has been able to do with Illinois. Petras has a 17.8 QBR and two touchdowns to two interceptions on the season, while DeVito has recorded 12 total touchdowns to two interceptions with a 63.8 QBR.
However, the real playmaker in this game is Chase Brown. The Illini running back has the most rushing yards in the country and Iowa does not have a playmaker near the level of Brown or wide receiver Isaiah Williams, who is worth mentioning.
Iowa has won eight-straight meetings versus Illinois and the Hawkeyes were the favorite every single time. The last time Illinois won? That was in 2008 as a -130 home favorite. Coincidence Illinois is a home favorite now versus Iowa? I think not!
Bret Bielema is 7-3 on the ML (70%) and 8-2 ATS (80%) in his last 10 games, plus he is 5-1 on the ML (83.3%) and 4-2 ATS (66.6%) as a favorite at Illinois. Bielema lost his very first start as a favorite and has won five-straight since then with the Illini. I like Illinois to win and cover at home versus Iowa.
Top Total
Purdue @ Maryland OVER 59 Total Points
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
When I bet on totals over 55 points, I love to attack teams who play fast and have quarterbacks who love taking shots downfield. This week we have a battle between Aidan O’Connell and Taulia Tagovailoa. O’Connell is averaging a little under 300 yards per game with two passing TDs, and Tagovailoa averages a little over 280 yards. Maryland averages 35 points per game while surrendering 21. They are seventh in the country in yards per play. Purdue averages 27 points per game while surrendering 26 points per game. Get your popcorn ready. I expect both teams to put on a show.
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Top Derivative Market
Ohio State @ Michigan State: Ohio State 1st Half -16 (-110)
Zachary Kruger (@ZK_FFB)
Michigan State gets the benefit of playing this one at home, but they still have the misfortune of playing a piping-hot Ohio State team. C.J. Stroud and company have torched opposing defenses all season long and have done so without starting wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. To date, Stroud has thrown for 1,376-18-2 with Emeka Egbuka leading the way among Buckye wideouts (30-512-5). Ebuka does look like the early beneficiary of JSN’s absence, but Marvin Harrison Jr. (24-405-6) has made his share of big plays as well. Michigan State simply cannot stop the pass. Sparty’s defense struggled to hold the Terps in last week’s 27-13 loss, but offensively, Payton Thorne was also limited to 221 yards and a touchdown on 44 pass attempts — which could also spell disaster for the Spartans. The Spartans are getting 27 points in this one, and 15.5 in the first half. They are 2-3 ATS on the year, with their two covers coming against Western Michigan and Akron. Since then, they have been unable to stop anybody. Ohio State covering the 15.5 first-half spread should come down to possessions and scoring efficiency. One of the most explosive offenses in the nation, I like the Buckeyes to make the most of their early opportunities on Saturday.
Top Prop
Illinois vs. Iowa: Isaiah Williams, WR - Over 5.5 Receptions
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
It is all about scheme with Williams, as the former quarterback gets peppered with short passes that serve as extended handoffs, as his 3.9 average target depth will attest. It is easy to understand why getting the ball in his hands is such a priority, dodging an absurd 18 tackles on 35 receptions for a gaudy 51% broken tackle rate. Williams has recorded at least 7 receptions in 4-of-5 games this season and receives short, quick passes that are hard to take away. For instance, last week Williams only put up 31 receiving yards, but he caught seven-of-eight targets on 3.3 ADOT. Not ideal if you are eyeing Williams’ Over for receiving yardage, but for the purposes of this wager that game plan is perfect. Take the Over 5.5 receptions on Isaiah Williams and enjoy the target show against Wisconsin.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat!
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