Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
BYU (-12.5) at USF: O/U 58.0
When BYU scheduled this series, they imagined they would cakewalk USF.
BYU imagined they would get the 2-10 USF team from last year again or even the 1-8 team from 2020, heck maybe the 4-8 squad from 2019, but this team will be better than all of them.
USF did something that doesn’t happen often, they got a ton of transfers. So many transfers that this roster looks completely different, mainly because of the NIL, but they could be a team the market doesn’t catch onto for awhile.
On offense, the Bulls added QB Gerry Bohanan (Baylor), RB Michael Dukes and WR Ajou Ajou (Clemson), plus WR Khafre Brown (UNC) and three offensive lineman from Maryland, UCF and Virginia Tech.
On defense, USF added defensive line transfers from Minnesota, Temple, UNC and Wake Forest, plus a linebacker from Minnesota and two defensive backs from Clemson and Kansas State. This is not your normal USF team.
BYU is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 when favored by 10-plus points as a road favorite. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in the past four and 1-5 ATS in the previous six (pictured below). USF is 6-4 ATS in its past 10 as a +10 or bigger home dog, including four-straight covers and a 5-2 mark since 2019.
The Cougars have met the Bulls twice since 2019 and failed to cover as -4.5 (2019) and -23.5 point favorites (2021).
USF outscored BYU 21-7 in the second-half last season after trailing 21-0 at the end of the first quarter and 28-6 at halftime. BYU hung on to win that 2021 meetings, 35-27, but like I said, this USF team is much better and shouldn’t fall behind 21-0.
Editor’s Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.
There are positives for BYU, like they are returning 19 starters and all 11 from a defense that allowed 24.8 points per game. The defense will be the backbone of this team as the offense’s three departures were big ones.
Good news is Jaren Hall is back under center and should see a full-year as the starter off 20 touchdowns and five interceptions but BYU replaces their top playmaker in running back Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons) and two of the top three wide revivers.
Baylor Romney started at QB last year for BYU in this contest, but Hall saw action versus USF in 2019 (148 passing yards, 83 rushing yards). The Cougars were a balanced offense last year averaging 188.2 rushing yards per game (37th) and 264.1 yards through the air (31st).
However, that balance will be thrown off without three of the top five playmakers from a year ago.
I expect BYU to takes its shots down the field but first attempt to establish a ground game, while Bohanan of USF will control the tempo for the Bulls and attempt to recreate the magic that took Baylor to a Big 12 Title and Sugar Bowl victory.
South Florida is a much better team with all of the transfers, plus they 2-0 ATS at home versus a BYU team that does perform well as favorites of -10 or more on the road.
I cannot forget to mention, the humidity and weather could effect BYU more than USF in this contest.
The high is 90 degrees for a Saturday 4:05 PM ET kickoff with rain showers in the morning and thunderstorms in the afternoon, making for a 72% humidity index. In Provo, Utah, where BYU plays, the humidity will be 28% in comparison.
Let’s ride with the Bulls of South Florida at +12.5 (-110) and fade the BYU Cougars.
Pick: South Florida +12.5 (1u)
Lean: Under 58.0
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. CO, IL, IN, IA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, WV, and VA. only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.