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Houston at Memphis (-3): O/U 57.5
We are running it back on a Friday Night and involving the Houston Cougars, but it’s not what you think!
After Houston’s loss to Tulane at home in OT, I cannot trust Houston anymore, but I cannot trust Memphis either.
Looking at both teams, they are all about offense and could care less about defense, which makes for a solid bet to the Over.
Memphis ranks 123rd, allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game (288.0), while Houston is 114th (273.6 per game). Both squads rank 92nd and 97th in total defense with 400-plus total yards allowed per game and both programs are tied at 84th for third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 40% of the time.
The Tigers average 34.4 points per game (T-44th), while the Cougars averages 31.0 per game (69th). Memphis has scored at least 37 points in three of the last four games and at least 23 points in every game this year.
On defense, Houston ranks 116th with 34.0 points per game allowed compared to Memphis who permits 26.2 points per game (72nd). The Cougars gave up 27 points to Tulane’s third-string quarterback last week and allowed at least 27 points in all five games. Houston has scored at least 30 points in four out of five games this year.
Historically, the Over is 5-3-2 since 2010 (62.5%) between Houston and Memphis, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The Over is 0-2-1 in the past three meetings, but that is a trend I expect to change in this matchup with weaker defenses.
Over the past seven meetings between Houston and Memphis, at least one of the teams scored 30-plus points.
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Memphis is on a four-game winning streak, so this could be a letdown opportunity or smash spot for Memphis, depending on which Tigers team shows up at home.
Memphis has played three-straight home games versus Temple, North Texas and Arkansas State. The Tigers outscored their opponents 112-69 in that span and averaged 37.3 points per game at home.
Let’s roll with the Over 57.5 (-110) as Dana Hologram is losing this Houston program after a 13-1 year. The Cougars will either respond with a 30-plus point effort and outright win, or get demolished at Memphis and surrender 35-plus points.
When you look at these teams with a total of 57 or higher, Memphis has excelled going 6-2-1 to the Over (75%) as a home favorite in conference play since 2018.
For Houston, they have only played twice as a road underdog in conference play with a total of 57-plus since 2018, but went Over both times. However, in conference play with a total of 57 or higher, Houston is 10-5-1 to the Over in the past 16 (66.6%).
I played the Over 57.5 (-110). I would play the Over up to 58.5.
Pick: Over 57.5 (1u)
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