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Wyoming at Illinois (-10): O/U 44.0
I am on the win total Over 4.5 wins for Illinois this season and I expect a Week Zero victory to start on the right track.
Wyoming has not won a road game against a Power-5 school since 2005 and is 1-19 on the ML all-time versus Big Ten opponents. Since 2011, Wyoming played five Big Ten schools and lost all five by an average of 25.0 points per game (1-4 ATS).
While Illinois is not a Big Ten powerhouse, they do have a lot of positives going for them entering year two under Bret Bielema. At 5-7 last year, they received Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback replacing Artur Sitkowski, plus running backs Chase Brown and Josh McCray are back with leading wideout Isaiah Williams.
The Illinois defense allowed 18.8 points per game in conference play last year and 21.6 PPG overall in 2021, so Wyoming should struggle to score based on who they bring back.
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The Cowboys have no experience at the quarterback position, they lost their workhorse at running back and both of their best wideouts to the transfer portal. On defense, Wyoming replaces the entire secondary, most of the defensive line and lost a linebacker to the NFL.
Wyoming returns 34% of its 2021 production, which ranks third-fewest in the entire NCAA. Yikes.
Illinois is more balanced across the board offensively and defensively than Wyoming. One team is trending in the right direction entering 2022, while the other is headed in the opposite. I would not play Illinois past -10 for more than 1 unit as this is a sharp line.
I lean the Under on Wyoming’s Team Total as nine out of the 12 teams scored 24 or fewer points on Illinois and seven recorded 20 or less.
Pick: Illinois -10 (1u)
To see my ML Parlay with Illinois - go check out this article.
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