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It’s always fun to cash a ticket of any shape or size, but there’s something special about taking an underdog and watching them go toe-to-toe with an opponent for the entire game.
Some teams deserve to be hefty favorites - we even highlighted a few we like in Week 6. But others are on shaky footing, either because of injury issues, situational circumstances or just an old-fashioned matchup against an undervalued opponent.
And while some underdogs are able to start with a handful of points and hang tight against the spread, others are able to flip the script entirely with an outright win. Just look at last week, when Vaughn Dalzell correctly called Wake Forest over Clemson and Brad Thomas predicted Illinois’ upset win over Wisconsin.
Here are our staff underdog picks for Week 6, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Texas Tech (+9.5) over Oklahoma State
Let’s make it two straight underdog winners and get on a hot streak.
We’ll roll with the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. They’re getting +9.5 on the road at Oklahoma State, with the Cowboys coming off a big road win at Baylor last week as a short underdog.
Texas Tech has covered four straight as a road underdog at Oklahoma State, with spreads ranking from +11 to +14, so this is right on par. The Red Raiders lost by 10 or fewer points in three of those games and won one of them outright.
Texas Tech was shutout, 23-0, last year at home against Oklahoma State - but that was under Jim Knowles’ defense. This is a new defense that will have to face some of the best and most explosive players and offenses in the country during conference play.
With a potential letdown spot and revenge angle for DonoVan Smith and the Red Raiders, target the squad who will have faced five straight ranked opponents when this game is over. Three of those four games against ranked teams resulted in OT or a margin of nine points or fewer.
I think the Red Raiders have a chance to get the outright win at +270 on the moneyline. But if not, they’ll cover the spread in Stillwater like they always do.
YTD Record: 1-4 ATS, 1 outright win
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): South Carolina (+7) over Kentucky
Kentucky QB Will Levis is very much questionable to play this game, which is a vital piece of information since the potential NFL first-round pick leads Kentucky’s third-ranked passing attack that averages 9.7 yards per attempt (7th). If Levis is out, Kentucky may have to lean on a rebuilt offensive line that has paved the way for the nation’s ninth-worst rushing unit that is averaging a shocking 87 yards per game.
Kentucky’s defense is banged up in the linebacker room and at safety, while South Carolina’s 15 rushing touchdowns are sixth-most in FBS. Both of South Carolina’s losses were against top-20 teams (Arkansas and Georgia) while the Gamecocks actually lead the nation with four blocked punts to go with four blocked field goals. They made a bowl game last year with Zeb Noland and Luke Doty starting several games under center, and now have Spencer Rattler who is at least completing 65 percent of his passes despite seven interceptions.
If Levis is out for the Wildcats, South Carolina is a very live dog at +205 on the moneyline and has a great shot to cover the seven-point spread.
YTD Record: 3-2 ATS, 3 outright wins
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Washington State (+13) over USC
Is it time to believe in USC football again? I had been a naysayer all off-season, yet the sixth-ranked Trojans are undefeated and look like a team that could themselves in the mix for a possible playoff berth. USC is a 13-point favorite this week, but despite their successes I think it’s too many points. The Trojans could overlook the Cougars, with a potential top-10 matchup at Utah on deck next week.
Outside of the lookahead angle, Washington State is a fun double-digit dog to back. They’re 4-1 ATS so far this season, and 1-0 as an underdog of 13 points or more. Surprisingly they grade out pretty well on defense, with a grade of 83.9 per PFF.com.
On defense, Francisco Mauigoa and Daiyan Henley could cause problems for Caleb Williams and company. Offensively, led by Cameron Ward, the Cougars should be able to put up enough points to stay competitive. The name for them will be ball security. With a -4 turnover margin, they must protect the ball if they want a chance at upsetting the Trojans.
YTD Record: 3-2 ATS, 2 outright wins
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Washington State (+13) over USC
The Trojans take on the Cougars in a Pac-12 matchup that features two offenses that are no stranger to points. Washington State QB Cameron Ward has thrown for 1,445-13-7 on the year, completing 67.2% of his passes. The Cougars are averaging 29.6 points per game and have an offensive success rate of 47.19% - good for 37th in the nation. They’ve also been solid defensively, allowing an overall success rate of 37.02% to opposing offenses (ranked 27th) while their defensive success rate against the pass ranks 31st (36.62%).
The Cougars are 4-1 on the season and 4-1 ATS. In their first two games against Pac-12 competition, Wazzu has averaged 34.5 points and nearly pulled off a home win against Oregon in Week 4. They’ll take on a loaded USC team that’s boasting a 5-0 record but 3-2 ATS, including 1-2 ATS against conference foes. Quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,402-12-1 on the year while rushing for another 18-233-3. Williams has gotten off to a solid start with the Trojans but did struggle in Week 4 against Oregon State. It’s the only real mark against Williams, but it’s also proof that he can be reached.
Washington State’s pass defense has been one of the best in the nation early in the season. Per PFF, the Cougars rank 15th in the nation in pass coverage grade (90.3) and have an overall defensive grade of 84.1 (34th). USC has smashed the Cougars in this matchup for two straight years, outscoring them by a combined total of 83-27. However, this is the Cougs’ first game against USC under HC Jake Dickert and Ward looks like a legit quarterback thus far.
In a game that originally opened at USC -11, I think there’s a chance Wazzu keeps this one a bit closer than the line suggests.
YTD Record: 1-4 ATS, 1 outright win