UTSA (-33) at FIU - Opened at -27.5
It’s not hard to figure out why this spread spiked shortly after open, as FIU has been objectively terrible this season. Their two wins have come in the form of a 38-37 OT survival against FCS mid-carder Bryant before beating another FBS basement-dwelling program in New Mexico State 21-7. When facing any other team with a pulse, FIU has been thoroughly dominated, losing 44-12 to Texas State, 73-0 to WKU and 33-12 to Connecticut. Against UConn they actually weren’t as bad as the score indicated, with the Panthers actually outgaining them 409-to-402 total yards while rushing for 6.7 YPC, but were done in by three turnovers. The Roadrunners have a potent offense that is averaging 8.2 yards per pass (33rd), a 51% success rate (18th) and ranks 23rd in explosiveness. They’re riding a three game win streak and coming off a tough 31-28 victory over a WKU team that hung 73 points on FIU without allowing a point. The problem with UTSA is they have allowed at least 20 points in every game this season, including 24 against FCS opponent Texas Southern, with their biggest win differential this season being 28 points. Can FIU move the ball enough to cover the 33 points against a porous UTSA D that is actually allowing more yards than the Panthers (447 YPG) while scoring just 4.3 more points per game than they are allowing? I like this bet for UTSA at -27.5, but I cannot play this at it’s current -33.5 mark given how bad their defense is.
Navy (+14.5) at SMU - Opened at +20.5
The Mustangs are reeling right now coming off a sound 41-19 loss to UCF, as they are currently on a three game losing streak. While they’re averaging 500 total yards per game on offense, SMU has been getting killed on the line during their recent run of futility, allowing 142 rushing yards to TCU’s Kendre Miller and 151 to Maryland’s Roman Hemby while ranking 98th nationally with a 16% stuff rate. PFF grades them out as ranking 84th in run defense and 88th in tackling, which is a real problem against a surging Navy team that ranked 105th in returning experience and has overcome a rough first couple of games to beat ECU in overtime before losing a 13-10 rock fight against a very good Air Force team. On Saturday it all came together for the Midshipmen as they just steamrolled Tulsa’s defense for an astounding 455 rushing yards on the way to a commanding 53-21 victory over the Golden Hurricane. It’s possible that SMU rights the ship after a few losses to quality opponents, but I don’t think they’re going to blow out Navy give their questionable run defense. I would have been elated to grab the +20.5 points at Open. As it stands, I still think it’s worth it to grab the key line hook before it drops under 14 points everywhere.
SJSU (-7) over @Fresno State - Opened at -3.5
We got a prime time showcase from San Jose State on Friday night, as they rolled 40-7 as a 6-point favorite versus a 4-1 UNLV program. The Spartans have rebounded from a disappointing 5-7 2021 campaign where starting QB Nick Starkel was injured leaving the offense rudderless without a stable signal caller. They restocked the passing game in the offseason bringing in Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro along with proven Nevada wideouts Justin Lockhart and Elijah Cooks. The turnaround has been eye opening, as SJSU fought hard in losing a 24-16 decision to Auburn before rattling off three straight wins by a combined 107-29. Defensively they’re firing on all cylinders, allowing just 14 PPG while ranking 27th in overall defensive performance and 17th against the pass. That’s bad news for a Fresno State team that is sputtering without their QB Jake Haener, losing their last four games, including a 19-14 loss to lowly UConn and a 40-20 blowout against MWC rival Boise State. The quick line spike indicates the sharps don’t envision a return from Haener, who was carted off the field with a severe high-ankle sprain on September 17 against USC. Without Haener, this line will continue to rise as I love SJSU to spank the Bulldogs without their senior leader.
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@Tennessee (+7) over Alabama - Opened at +16.5
This line is all about Bryce Young, as the Heisman Trophy winner was not able to give it a go against Texas A&M due to a shoulder injury. He was testing out the sore wing in pre-game, but the Bama training staff ultimately decided to play it safe. Alabama has survived a pair of high-wire acts against Texas and Texas A&M, which went right down to the last play. Will Jalen Milroe be able to scramble his way to victory against a UT team that can put up points by the dozen? The Crimson Tide offense was one dimensional with Milroe under center, rushing for 288 yards on 51 carries, but gaining just 111 yards through the air against the Aggies on Saturday. He clearly wasn’t comfortable surveying a defense in passing situations which led to a disappointing 5-14 showing in third down situations. Alabama also missed two field goals and had miserable turnover luck which helped keep A&M close despite a limited offensive attack, losing three fumbles with an overall 4-to-1 turnover deficit. Tennessee is coming off a wire-to-wire destruction of LSU, beating the Tigers 40-13 in Death Valley in a game where the Vols were just four point favorites in one of the easiest cashes of the weekend. UT recorded 502 total yards, with a whopping 263 coming on the ground as they did anything they wanted on offense. But can Tennessee do that against Alabama’s D that ranks 8th nationally allowing 84 rushing yards per game? Their offense ranks top-10 nationally in yards per play (7.21) points per drive (3.98) and yards per pass (10.8) while playing formidable opponents Pitt, Florida and LSU already. I would have loved to grab when it was in double-digits, but this is a stay away at +7 until we know what Bryce Young‘s status is. If he’s playing, this line will climb back over the key number and edge back up towards 10 in my opinion.
Other Big Line Movers:
@Michigan State (+6) versus Wisconsin - Opened at MSU -2
Mississippi State (-6.5) at Kentucky - Opened at -1.5
@TCU (-4) versus Oklahoma State - Opened at -1
Wisconsin rallied around interim HC Jim Leonhard to smoke Northwestern 42-7 in their first game of the post-Paul Chryst era. Michigan State has been terrible defensively, as the NCAA’s worst secondary of 2021 has failed to improve much, slotting in as the 10th worst pass defense in the country this year. They’ve struggled to run the ball without superstar RB Kenneth Walker to carry the load, which has drastically affected their offense as a whole, with MSU ranking 106th in net yards per pass attempt, 100th in net success rate and 106th in EPA margin. Wisconsin is just a better team and Mich State is coming back to earth after overachieving last year. Lay the 6 points now with Wisconsin before it crosses the key number…..It’s all about Will Levis, as the potential first round selection’s absence led the Kentucky offense to completely fall apart against South Carolina, managing just 7 points until a garbage time touchdown with 2:43 seconds left in the game. QB Kaiya Sheron was clearly overmatched against a South Carolina defense that ranks 68th in overall team performance. Now they’re playing a Mississippi State team that ranks 19th against the pass and is brimming with confidence coming off two convincing victories over Texas A&M and Arkansas. Bottom Line: Kentucky is going to get crushed if Levis cannot play by Mike Leach‘s Year 3 Miss State team. Might be worth taking this at 6.5 since it’s going much higher if Levis is out since UK ranks 116th in rushing offense, and even if he plays Levis is still dealing with the best pass defense they’ve faced all season…..Talk a bout a marquee Big-12 matchup, as both OSU and TCU are undefeated and ranked in the top-15 in the AP Poll. The Horned Frogs are the #1 team in the nation in rushing performance and rank 3rd in passing, which is an issue for Oklahoma State’s secondary that allows 304 passing yards per game, 5th most in the country. With the Cowboys ranking 18th in passing performance and TCU allowing a generous 268 passing yards per game themselves, i’m expecting this game to go to the moon. Each team is averaging 46 points per game, which means Over 68.5 is looking like a play despite the high number. I’m leaning TCU on the side, but with Max Duggan and Spencer Sanders throwing passes, timely turnovers could be the difference here.