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Corbin Burnes O/U 9.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers
Happy Memorial Day!
A day full of baseball features a few aces taking the mound, including the Milwaukee Brewers Corbin Burnes.
Burnes has been one of the most dominating pitchers in the league and currently sits behind only Jacob deGrom (-143) at +450 odds to win the NL CY Young Award.
In Burnes’ first seven starts this season, they all featured nine or more strikeouts until his last outing. He finished with seven Ks against San Diego in 6.0 innings and 95 pitches.
Over every outing this season, Burnes has had at least 31% of his pitches called strikes against the opponent. Burnes averages 1.61 strikeouts per inning and an 18.7% swinging-strike rate, both in the 100th percentile.
The Tigers are among the MLB’s worst strikeout teams, owning the second-highest K% versus right-handed pitchers (27%). Detroit has the sixth-most strikeouts in the last seven games (63) and the fifth-most over the last 15 days and 14 games (133).
NBC’s model projects Burnes to record 8.2 strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched versus Detroit. Burnes is predicted to have the third-most strikeouts on the Memorial Day slate, but I see an opportunity to be the leader.
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In Burnes’ last meeting with Detroit, he recorded 11 strikeouts in 7.0 innings, with one hit allowed over 90 pitches. Burnes’ squad won 19-0.
That was his first and only start against the Tigers. Burnes made a relief appearance in 2.0 innings as a rookie in 2018, striking out two.
Burnes’ month of May was not as glorious as his April, but 10 strikeouts is not out of the question here. He struck out 18 combined, nine each, versus both the Cardinals and Royals this month over 11.0 combined innings before seven Ks in 6.0 innings against the Padres.[[ad:athena]]
Burnes posted a 3.71 ERA, 0-2 record and recorded 25 strikeouts in 17.0 innings with seven earned runs in three starts over May.
Over April, Burnes went 2-2 with a 1.53 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 29.1 innings and five earned runs in five starts.
He has faced the Cardinals and Padres twice this season, so I will not put too much stock into Burnes’ seven strikeout performance in his last outing versus San Diego.
Detroit is a much better opponent for Burnes and he could serve up double-digit Ks here for the first time since April 20 (five starts ago).
Eight total hitters for Detroit have a combined .062 batting average versus Burnes over 14 at-bats, including six strikeouts and one hit.
Back Burnes to get back on track versus a Detroit team that will be swinging for the fences after sweeping the Yankees and scoring 15 runs in three games.
Burnes could take that confidence right back if he fans 3-4 hitters in the first two innings, as I expect Detroit to come out aggressive.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 9.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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