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UFC 274 has already provided plenty of emotion and commotion. NBC Sports EDGE UFC analysts Ike Feldman (@IkeFeldman) and Steven Ricciardi (@CombatSportsNBC) have broken down the entire card. Their analysis…and disagreements…are highlighted in this article.
Norma Dumont vs Macy Chiasson
Feldman: Chiasson got blown out of the water against former title challenger Raquel Pennington in her last match. The former TUF champion and Fortis MMA product is looking to bounce back in a big way against the streaking Dumont. After facing defeat via KO in her UFC debut, Dumont has strung together three-straight wins. She has a muscular physique and uses her extensive wrestling to dominate, but Chiasson, a much bigger-framed fighter, is scrappy on the feet and will avoid the clinch at all costs. I have Chiasson wiping off her previous loss by dominating the kickboxing exchanges en route to a razor-thin decision victory.
Ricciardi: I agree with Ike that this will be a very close fight. The standing striking exchanges are not going to give us a clear picture of which fighter is winning this fight. Ike likes Chiasson because he believes she will avoid the clinch and stay on her feet. That is where we differ. This fight will be won in the clinch with knees and elbows or if Norma Dumont can get a takedown and secure some time in top position. Norma should look for the takedown. Macy Chiasson has 64% takedown defense and has been taken down by the likes of Marion Reneau and Lina Lansberg. Dumont has a clear advantage on the ground and if she gets this fight to the mat, she will prevail.
Randy Brown vs Khaos Williams
Ricciardi: Randy Brown is a solid fighter, and he fights to his strengths. Brown has three advantages in this matchup with Khaos Williams. Randy is three inches taller than Khaos which will allow him to score from the outside with his long jab and straight kicks. Randy has excellent cardio and should be able to wear on Khaos with his movement. Randy Brown also has the advantage on the ground if he can get the fight to the ground. Khaos is physically very strong so Randy will need to use good technique to get him down early. This will pay dividends later in the fight as Khaos begins to tire. Randy Brown by decision is my preferred bet in this fight.
Feldman: If Khaos Williams’ first name does not describe his style, then do yourself a favor and go back and watch his last handful of fights where he shows zero hesitation while delivering absolute carnage. Quickly becoming a fighter whose fights are must watch events, the young fighter now gets his most seasoned opponent in Randy Brown who possesses a solid all-around skill set. If Williams comes out and tries to outpoint Brown, it will be a long night at the office, but if he brings the chaos, he can get Brown flustered and reactive to a firefight, which is where Williams will shine. Khaos Williams has big power and can go full blast for 15-minutes, no problem. It will be his fifth win in six UFC contests.
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Joe Lauzon vs Donald Cerrone
Feldman: A man amongst men is “Cowboy” Cerrone. Though he is facing a fellow performance bonus king in Joe Lauzon, Cerrone has a much deeper arsenal of weapons to pull from than his opponent. The game plan is quite simple for Cerrone: respect and avoid Lauzon’s grappling abilities if necessary and reign down jabs, knees and eventually head kicks to score big with the judges. Owner of the most wins in UFC history, Cerrone is going to add to his win total with this swan song performance. While Cerrone has faced young killer after young killer, Lauzon is a few steps down from the division’s best. We may not see a finish from the “Cowboy”, but I expect him to ride off into the sunset with a victory by decision.
Ricciardi: Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone are two vets in the MMA world. Joe Lauzon is dangerous early in fights. Lauzon is going to try and swarm Donald Cerrone in Round One. I expect a finish here. Lauzon can catch Cerrone with something here to finish the fight. This fight does not see a third round. A Lauzon Round One finish is my prop to sprinkle on here.
Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson
Ricciardi: Tony Ferguson has a small window to win this fight. Michael Chandler has an easy path to victory if he chooses to put Ferguson on his back and control him on the ground. We have seen Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush employ that game plan and cruise to victories by decision. Michael Chandler can take that path and use his wrestling, but he also likes to bang it out with his opponents. Chandler vs Gaethje was a war on the feet but exchanging power strikes while standing will give Tony Ferguson a chance to get creative and land his own finishing strike. Ferguson is extremely durable. Chandler is my pick and the most value is the Chandler decision prop.
Feldman: Man, oh man, it seems almost impossible that Chandler vs. Ferguson will not be some sort of crazy fight! Both of these gladiators are fearless and are always game for a slugfest painted in red. I like how Ferguson has taken off an extensive amount of time to clear his head. He was on one of the longest win streaks in UFC history (12), and then he fell off his perch and lost three fights in a row. Now, “El Cucuy” is facing a fellow savage who is trying to springboard back into title contention. When Ferguson is firing on all cylinders, he mixes up his jabs, teep kicks, and elbows combined with his unique intuitiveness. Ferguson will have a large reach advantage against the shorter Chandler. It is an unlikely scenario, but if Ferguson needs to scramble to get back to his feet, he has shown a tremendous ability to do so. I believe this victory will get Tony Ferguson right back into title talk as well as show the world that he has much more to give to this sport.
Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje
Feldman: The sport’s most entertaining fighter, Justin Gaethje, is trying to hit a new career high by finally winning an undisputed title against the very dangerous all-time UFC submission leader, Charles Oliveira. While Gaethje wants nothing to do with the UFC’s all-time submission leader on the mat, Gaethje will have a clear power advantage against an opponent who has been very “hittable” in recent performances. The Denver, Colorado, native might have some of the most overlooked power in the sport. Though commentators will address the damage that his strikes cause, nobody talks about how his kicks and punches force his opponents to immediately go to plan B. The All-American wrestler Gaethje will need to be swift in getting back to his feet should the fight hit the floor as it has only been quicksand for fighters against Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu. I like Gaethje to get the job done quickly by landing stinging leg kicks followed by powerful fists of fury for the knockout.
Ricciardi: It has been a whirlwind of emotions for Charles Oliveira and me in the last 24 hours. I was on Charles Oliveira earlier in the week to win this fight early. My preferred prop was Oliveira and Under 2.5 rounds which is a correlated parlay prop that Pointsbet offers. However, Charles Oliveira failed to make weight and thus will not be eligible to retain the UFC Lightweight Championship. As a result of Oliveira’s weigh-in debacle, I am switching my preferred play. I do agree with Ike in that Gaethje is now the play. I like Justin Gaethje and Under 2.5 rounds which can be had at +295.
Enjoy the fights….and lets cash some tickets along the way.
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