Drivers and their fans will hold their collective breaths all week as NASCAR head to Talladega Superspeedway for the biggest wild card of the season.
Only one driver is mathematically safe.
Denny Hamlin started the Round of 12 the same way he started the Round of 16 – with a win. He led the most laps at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last week and punched his ticket to the Round of 8. After being derailed by a bad strategy call, Kyle Larson got mired in traffic, finished 10th, and now heads to Talladega with a 57-point advantage over ninth in the standings. He should feel safe, but by no means complacent.
Everyone else is in choppy waters. Kyle Busch has a 35-point advantage over ninth in the standings – and everyone else is closer to falling or staying below the cutline. In four of the last five Talladega playoff races, at least five of the championship contenders finished 25th or worse. This is a track on which they consistently perform the worst among the final 10 races – and that should come as no surprise since this race is a lottery to see who can pull the lowest number out of the hat.
Talladega is a terrifying place.
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Top 10
1. Denny Hamlin (last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 31
Weeks as #1: 10
Cup wins: 2 (Darlington 2; Las Vegas 2)
Power Average: 4.51
Hamlin certainly picked up his pace at the right time. The last 45 days begins with the inaugural Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course event and he was leading that race late in the going before he was spun. Since then, his only sub-10th-place finish was on the other lottery track of Daytona International Speedway. All but one of the remaining seven races during that 45-day span ended in top-fives including two clutch wins to start each of the first two playoff rounds.
2. Kyle Larson (last week: 1) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 27
Weeks as #1: 11
Cup wins: 6 (Las Vegas 1, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville, Watkins Glen, Bristol paved)
Power Average: 5.51
Last week’s oddsmakers’ favorite, Larson showed the strength expected of him and won Stage 1. He and the entire Hendrick Motorsports organization had the wrong strategy for Stage 2, which left Larson a lap down for the critical second half of the race. Larson was not good in traffic and could not overcome the deficit, so we did not get a real head-to-head matchup among the two drivers with the most current momentum. Larson and Hamlin have four more unrestricted oval races for that to happen.
3. Ryan Blaney (last week: 4) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Cup wins: 3 (Atlanta 1, Michigan, Daytona 2)
Power Average: 6.56
Blaney performed about as well as expected at Las Vegas. His fifth-place finish helped in the points, especially with Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman finishing outside the top 20, but he does not have enough of a cushion to enter Talladega worry-free. If he survives that race, the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval is another great track for him, however, and the momentum from back-to-back top-fives on unrestricted ovals will help.
4. Chase Elliott (last week: 3) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 31
Weeks as #1: 5
Cup wins: 2 (COTA, Road America)
Power Average: 7.00
After their run-in at Bristol Motor Speedway, Elliott is being trolled hard by Kevin Harvick. That could harden Elliott’s resolve. The driver Harvick described as being ‘like a nine-year-old’ finished second in the South Point 400 – seven spots ahead of the No. 4. Like Blaney, Elliott’s biggest challenge will be to survive Talladega with results that are close to or ahead of Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and William Byron so that he has a decent advantage over the cutline next week. He’s going to be the favorite to win the Roval, but he also knows victories are hard to come by.
5. Martin Truex, Jr. (last week: 5)
Weeks in the top 10: 23
Weeks as #1: 2
Cup wins: 4 (Phoenix 1, Martinsville 1, Darlington 1, Richmond 2)
Power Average: 10.05
Truex remains perfect in regard to top-10 finishes during the playoffs. The biggest worry is that Talladega has been extremely unkind in the past five decades. His last 10 attempts there ended 20th or worse with an average of 27th. He hasn’t scored a Talladega top-10 since 2015. Some would say that means he’s ‘due’ a strong run, but this is a track that plays by its own rules.
6. Kevin Harvick (last week: 6)
Weeks in the top 10: 23
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 10.07
If one is going to talk trash, they need to be able to back it up on the track. Harvick has done so during the playoffs with a perfect record of top-10s while Elliott has only two. Due to a mediocre regular season, he is still below the cutline by seven points, but anything can happen to the drivers above him in the standings. Harvick needs to finish better than the same three drivers as Elliott and if he does, Harvick’s odds of making the Round of 8 increase dramatically. This not-so-Happy driver has six more opportunities to win in 2021.
7. Kyle Busch (last week: 7)
Weeks in the top 10: 29
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 2 (Kansas 1, Pocono 2)
Power Average: 11.65
We handicapped Busch high in the order last week, but frankly were uncertain of how he would actually perform once the green flag waved. He has been hit-or-miss on this track in the past and erratic during the playoffs. He stepped up on his home track and gained two spots in the points, which means that he now has Truex and Blaney playing a little bit of catchup. Entering the great unknown in Alabama, every little advantage matters because this will be the race that decides the fate of several playoff contenders.
8. Joey Logano (last week: 9) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 26
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Bristol Dirt)
Power Average: 11.88
Back-to-back 11th-place finishes at Bristol and Vegas are not overly impressive, but they are good enough to keep JoLo in contention. Part of the reason that he moved up a spot in this week’s rankings, however, is because Watkins Glen’s 22nd got replaced with a much better Vegas run. In the coming weeks, Indy road, Michigan International Speedway, and Daytona – all tracks on which Logano finished outside the top 20 – will also age out of this formula, so he should be a part of this list for a while.
9. Tyler Reddick (last week: 10) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 12.33
Reddick was one of the strongest drivers last week at Vegas and had better statistics than a sixth-place finish supports. That was his first top-10 during the playoffs and if he had managed to earn one in the Round of 16, he would still be championship eligible. All he can race for at the moment is pride – but that is a big motivator for a driver and team that is steadily improving.
10. Brad Keselowski (last week: 16) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Cup wins: 1 (Talladega 1)
Power Average: 12.71
Keselowski jumped six spots this week as his 35th-place finish at the Glen was replaced with a seventh at Vegas in our Power Ranking formula. Keselowski is keeping the No. 2 in contention with consistency and during the playoffs, his three top-10s are complimented by another 13th-place result. While that may help him achieve the Round of 8, he needs to at least challenge for wins if he is going to be part of the Championship 4. He won the spring Talladega race, but that is no guarantee of a strong run this weekend.
Other drivers with wins, not among the top 10: Alex Bowman ([3] Richmond 1, Dover 1, and Pocono 1), William Byron (Homestead), Michael McDowell (Daytona 1), Christopher Bell (Daytona Road), Kurt Busch (Atlanta 2), Aric Almirola (New Hampshire), and AJ Allmendinger (Indy Road).
Dropped from the Top 10
14. Christopher Bell (last week: 8) -6
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Cup wins: 1 (Daytona Road)
Power Average: 14.80
Bell took a nosedive for the same reasons Keselowski soared. Watkins Glen fell out of the formula and was replaced by Vegas, which means he lost a top-10 run and is burdened by one outside the top 20. His current ranking is much more indicative of his recent strength because he has earned an average finish of 22.4 in the last 45 days. His only highlight was a third at Richmond Raceway in an event that was dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Opening Outright Odds to win)
Las Vegas 2, Denny Hamlin (+750)
Bristol, Kyle Larson (+460)
Richmond 2, Martin Truex, Jr. (+480)
Darlington 2, Denny Hamlin (+625)
Daytona 2, Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Michigan, Ryan Blaney (+1800)
Indy Road, AJ Allmendinger (+3000)
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Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 4.51 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 5.51 | 1 | -1 | |
3. | 6.56 | 4 | 1 | |
4. | 7.00 | 3 | -1 | |
5. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 10.05 | 5 | 0 |
6. | 10.07 | 6 | 0 | |
7. | 11.65 | 7 | 0 | |
8. | 11.88 | 9 | 1 | |
9. | 12.33 | 10 | 1 | |
10. | 12.71 | 16 | 6 | |
| ||||
11. | 13.68 | 13 | 2 | |
12. | 13.80 | 12 | 0 | |
13. | 14.66 | 15 | 2 | |
14. | 14.80 | 8 | -6 | |
15. | 14.82 | 14 | -1 | |
16. | 14.90 | 11 | -5 | |
17. | 15.30 | 17 | 0 | |
18. | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 17.08 | 19 | 1 |
19. | 17.83 | 18 | -1 | |
20. | 18.19 | 21 | 1 | |
21. | 18.59 | 20 | -1 | |
22. | 20.37 | 26 | 4 | |
23. | 20.46 | 23 | 0 | |
24. | 20.47 | 22 | -2 | |
25. | 21.84 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 22.15 | 28 | 2 | |
27. | 22.68 | 27 | 0 | |
28. | 22.79 | 25 | -3 | |
29. | 25.44 | 29 | 0 | |
30. | 26.63 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 28.40 | 31 | 0 | |
32. | 30.17 | 32 | 0 | |
33. | 30.88 | 33 | 0 | |
34. | 31.00 | 31 | -3 | |
35. | 31.65 | 34 | -1 | |
36. | 32.21 | 35 | -1 | |
37. | 32.87 | 37 | 0 | |
38. | 33.30 | 39 | 1 | |
39. | 33.32 | 36 | -3 | |
40. | 33.94 | 40 | 0 | |
41. | 34.22 | 38 | -3 |
Power Rankings after Talladega 1 [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/power-ranking-after-talladega-1]
After Daytona 2 [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/power-ranking-after-daytona-2-0]
After Bristol (paved) [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/power-ranking-after-bristol]
