The wait for the NFL season is on. With the draft and free agency behind us, now is a good time to start evaluating teams. Today, we look at last-place teams for the 2021 season and their odds to win their respective divisions this year. As always, Division Odds are powered via PointsBet.
New York Jets - Odds to Win AFC East (+1600)
The 2021 season was another hapless season for “Gang Green” as the Jets only managed to win four games last season. They were 1-7 on the road and 0-6 vs. division opponents. New York had a -194 point differential, with only the Jaguars being worse.
There seems to be more optimism around the Jets this season than years in the past. They have surrounded second-year quarterback Zach Wilson with some decent young talent on offense. The problem is the Jets are terrible on defense: New York was dead last in yards allowed per game, 30th in passing and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Jets may show improvements on offense but they can not compete in the AFC East.
Baltimore Ravens - Odds to Win AFC North (+200)
The Ravens finished the 2021 season with a 8-9 record. The Browns also had a 8-9 record but they won two more games in the division, making the Ravens the last-place team in the AFC North. That said, Baltimore is clearly not a last-place team; Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson got injured in the back half of the season, causing the Ravens to go on a six-game losing streak to end the season.
A healthy Ravens team should return to the top of the AFC North this season, currently sharing the shortest odds to win the division with the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore needs to get Lamar Jackson’s contract done so they can start working on improving their offense. Not only can the Ravens win their division this season, they can also contend for a AFC Title. PointsBet is reporting 36% of the tickets in this market are backing the Ravens, making them the public favorite.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Odds to Win AFC South (+700)
What a disaster. Urban Meyer was not ready to lead an NFL team, proving it early and often, and his exit alone will make the Jaguars a better team. Last season, the Jags had a -204-point differential, the worst in the league. They did not win a single road game all season and were only 2-6 ATS on the road.
This season with new head coach Doug Pederson, we should get to see if the Jags have something in second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars need to improve their run defense this season but outside of that, the defense played decent in 2021. Jacksonville won’t win the AFC South but they could go over their win total of 6.5 games.
Denver Broncos - Odds to win AFC West (+260)
There has been a thought around the league for the past few seasons that if the Denver Broncos were able to get a quarterback, they would be a contender in the AFC. Well this offseason, the Broncos traded for Super Bowl Champion Russell Wilson. With Wilson in the fold, the Broncos are +260 to win the AFC West and +900 to win the AFC with only the Bills, Chiefs, and Chargers having shorter odds to win the AFC.
The Broncos are set up to have a good season but they have to win games in their division, which happens to be the toughest in the NFL. Last season, the Broncos were 1-5 vs. AFC West rivals. The AFC West is the only division with two quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl. Additionally, America’s quarterback, Justin Herbert, also plays in the AFC West. While Derek Carr doesn’t have the fanfare the other QB’s do, he may have the best weapon in the division with Davante Adams now rocking the Raiders’ Silver and Black. Carr is also the most tenured QB in the AFC. Wilson makes the Broncos better on paper but I need to see it on the field before I crown them AFC West Champs. PointsBet is reporting 29% of the money in this market backing the Broncos, making them No. 2 in bet count behind the Chargers.
