Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his four NFL plays for Week 3 of the NFL season, including Patriots at Jets, plus picks in Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football.
Giants at 49ers (-10.5): O/U 44.5
The Giants escaped ultimate embarrassment in a 31-28 comeback win over the unanimous worst team in the league, the Arizona Cardinals.
New York was down 20-0 at halftime and 28-0 before scoring 31 unanswered points. So for the first six quarters of the season, New York was out-scored 60-0. The last two quarters are not who they are.
San Francisco has owned the best defense against tight ends over the past three seasons and the main threat for New York is tight end Darren Waller. If you stop Waller and Daniel Jones’ RPOs, then New York should struggle to score.
New York scored 16 or fewer points in five out of nine losses dating back to last season and three out of five on the road. This is the 49ers’ home opener and they are in a bounce-back spot after allowing 23 points to the Rams.
Not to mention, Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas being out gives me no confidence in the Giants’ offense on a short week. I played the Giants Team Total Under 16.5 points at -102 odds. I’d go down to 14.5.
Pick: Giants Team Total Under 16.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Patriots (-2.5) at Jets: O/U 37.0
The Patriots have won 14 consecutive meetings against the Jets and 22 of the past 24 (91.6%) with the two losses coming in 2015 (Jets 26-20 OT win) and 2013 (Jets 30-27 OT win).
Zach Wilson owns 54 completions on 106 pass attempts (50.9%) for 693 passing yards, two TDs, seven INTs, and 11 sacks taken against the Patriots. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter with 22 combined points in three games versus New England.
This season, New England is 0-2 with the worst luck out of any team in the NFL. I think Lady Luck will look the Patriots way in Week 3 as they face a team they’ve beaten 14 straight times. Bill Belichick is 36-10 (78.2%) on the ML against the Jets.
One of my favorite angles of attacking Week 3 of the NFL is backing 0-2 teams in full desperation mode to avoid going down 0-3, which makes the postseason mathematically doubtful.
I played New England on the ML at -142 odds to continue their winning streak against the New York Jets. This is the ideal opponent on the road to avoid going down 0-3.
Pick: Patriots ML (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Steelers at Raiders (-3): O/U 43.5
Sunday Night Football features a 1970s-style clash between the Steelers and Raiders, which sets up for what’s expected to be a dogfight.
The Raiders’ offense has sputtered with 116 rushing yards in two games with two fumbles and one rush over eight yards. Las Vegas scored 17 and 10 points in two games.
Jimmy Garoppolo has 385 passing yards in two games with three touchdowns and three interceptions, plus star WR Davante Adams is in concussion protocol.
The Steelers offense has struggled too. Pittsburgh needs to be more dependent on George Pickens and Jaylen Warren, and not Dionate Johnson and Najee Harris.
Pittsburgh’s defense recorded one interception, two forced fumbles, six sacks, eight pass deflections, and two touchdowns against Cleveland. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith each scored a touchdown and recorded a sack.
This Sunday Night Football matchup screams Under to me. I grabbed the Under 43.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 41.5 as both squads will struggle to reach 20 points.
Pick: Under 43.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Eagles (-5) at Buccaneers: O/U 45.5
The Eagles will be one of the most public bet games and the spread has already dropped from +6.5 to +5.5 and now +4.5/+5 at most shops. This gives me the feeling of Chiefs at Colts in Week 3 with the Chiefs closing as -4.5 favorites and losing outright.
Philadelphia should arguably be 1-1 or 0-2 on the season with wins over New England (26-21) and Minnesota (34-28), but they are truly the luckiest team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay’s defense has looked fantastic through two games, while I should note they’ve played Minnesota (20-17) and Chicago (27-17). The Bucs’ rushing attack has 67 carries, while Baker Mayfield has 68 passing attempts, both as efficient as the other with the rise of Rachaad White at running back.
Give me Mayfield and the Buccaneers +5 at -110 odds and the ML at +190 odds on the ML. Since 2003, when undefeated teams play in Week 3, the home team is 67-47-3 ATS (59%), while home underdogs are 29-14 ATS (67%). Tampa Bay is the sharp play.
Pick: Buccaneers +5 (1u), Buccaneers ML (0.25u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 9-8-1 (52.9%) +0.55 units
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