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The NHL’s Monday schedule has been severely altered by the recent COVID-19 outbreak that has affected most professional sporting leagues around the world.
Instead of five games being played this evening, there will only be two: Buffalo v. Columbus and Dallas v. Minnesota.
Before placing any wagers, be sure to look at the latest scratches and changes and play accordingly.
Below you will find an overlay from tonight’s game between the Stars and Wild available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
MINNESOTA WILD at DALLAS STARS (Stars -1.5, -121 ML, OU 5.5)
Tonight’s matchup in Dallas between the Wild and the original team from Minnesota (the North Stars) highlights two teams that have been scuffling lately.
Minnesota enters tonight’s game amid a three-game losing streak, while Dallas snapped a five-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday.
Prior to these recent hiccups for the Wild, Minnesota had been one of the consistently solid teams in the NHL this season, owning a record of 19-6-1 while never losing more than two games consecutively.
Star forward Kirill Kaprizov is having a strong sophomore season, scoring eleven goals and assisting on twenty-two others in twenty-nine games this year.
His number of goals scored is even more impressive considering he had been shutout in the first eight games of the season before exploding, scoring all eleven goals over the course of Minnesota’s last twenty-one games.
Cam Talbot’s consistent goaltending has been solid enough to put the Wild in position to win most games they have played this year, leading them to be one of the best teams in all of hockey.
Despite this recent skid, Minnesota has a great chance to get back into the win column tonight against a Stars team that is not firing on all cylinders.
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Although Dallas has seen some of their key contributors return from injury recently, the Stars simply have not been able to replicate the quality of hockey they had been playing during a seven-game winning streak they went on in late November / early December.
Jake Oettinger and Braden Holtby are as strong a 1-2 as there is in the NHL from a goaltending standpoint, but offensively Dallas has been an enigma.
The Stars are just 25th in the NHL in average goals scored per game (2.67), but their recent stretch of play has been even worse than their subpar standard.
In their last five games, Dallas has scored seven goals total, with four of them coming in Saturday’s win over Chicago.
Perhaps Saturday’s game indicates they have snapped out of their cold streak, but given the odds offered on tonight’s game, there is only one reasonable play: Minnesota on the moneyline.
Based on my numbers, Minnesota defeats Dallas 52.7% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -111.
While it may not be a substantial overlay, the Wild’s moneyline odds of +100 (implied probability of 50%) represent just that – an overlay.
THE PLAYS
Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars – Wild ML (+100)
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