A critical Game 5 will be played in the Eastern Conference Final this evening at Madison Square Garden between the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning, with the winner taking a 3-2 series lead before Game 6 in Tampa on Saturday night.
With the East Final now effectively a best-of-three series, each team finds themselves in what could be considered a must-win game (particularly the Rangers after squandering a 2-0 series lead).
Below you will find a wager to consider from Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING at NEW YORK RANGERS
As has been widely discussed, Tampa Bay’s superiority in terms of even strength play has been the difference in each of the last two games.
New York has not scored an even strength goal since early in the third period of their Game 2 victory, putting Igor Shesterkin in an extremely difficult position.
The Rangers have been reliant upon taking advantage of power play situations all season, and this series has been no different.
New York has cashed in on four of their thirteen power play chances in the Eastern Conference Final (30.77%), which is slightly higher than their fantastic power play conversion rate during the regular season (25.23%; fourth best in the NHL).
Knowing that Tampa has the clear edge when playing five-on-five, the Rangers must make the most of their opportunities when on the man advantage.
If they do not, there is an increasingly less likely chance that they will find any success.
A more concerning scenario for New York, however, would be Tampa Bay playing a more disciplined style this evening.
Yes, the Lightning were one of the more penalized teams in the NHL this year (252 power play opportunities against according to hockey-reference.com), but they killed off 80.56% of their opponent’s power play chances.
Tampa’s PK has been even better during the postseason, killing at a rate of 83.33%; this would suggest the Lightning are due to regress to the mean in a positive fashion, as they are only fending off the Rangers’ opportunities 69.23% of the time to this point.
With the Lightning’s advantage in five-on-five play plus the resurgence of Andrei Vasilevskiy over the last two games (.954 save percentage), New York can ill afford to either: a) see fewer power play opportunities; or b) see their conversion rate slip.
I believe Tampa weathered the Rangers’ storm during the first two games of this series and will show their superiority tonight in New York.
As tempting as Tampa’s puck line odds of +205 (implied probability of 32.8%) are, I am just not sure I want to play with fire considering Shesterkin’s presence.
Accordingly, the Lightning on the moneyline at odds of -125 (implied probability of 55.6%) becomes the play.
THE PLAYS
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers – Lightning ML (-125)
