Monday night’s slate of games in the National Hockey League is a solid one, highlighted by an epic showdown in Sin City between the Golden Knights and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Below you will find my projections for all six of Monday’s games as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.
The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.
Here is the results tally for this season:
16-15-0 (51.6%), +2.33 units
PROJECTIONS
DALLAS STARS at OTTAWA SENATORS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| DAL | -115 | -203 (67%) | -1.5 (+200) | +137 (42.2%) | O6.5 (+100) | -148 (59.8%) | +125 | -145 (59.3%) |
| OTT | -105 | +203 (33%) | +1.5 (-240) | -137 (57.8%) | U6.5 (-120) | +148 (40.2%) | +135 | +296 (25.3%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +330 | +545 (15.5%) |
WASHINGTON CAPITALS at NEW JERSEY DEVILS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| WSH | +105 | +148 (40.4%) | +1.5 (-245) | -178 (64.1%) | O6.5 (-110) | +138 (42%) | +145 | +210 (32.3%) |
| NJD | -125 | -148 (59.6%) | -1.5 (+195) | +178 (35.9%) | U6.5 (-110) | -138 (58%) | +115 | -107 (51.6%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +340 | +521 (16.1%) |
ST. LOUIS BLUES at WINNIPEG JETS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| STL | -115 | -112 (52.9%) | -1.5 (+210) | +230 (30.3%) | O6.5 (-105) | -131 (56.8%) | +125 | +117 (46.1%) |
| WPG | -105 | +113 (47.1%) | +1.5 (-261) | -230 (69.7%) | U6.5 (-115) | +131 (43.2%) | +135 | +149 (40.2%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +340 | +629 (13.7%) |
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at EDMONTON OILERS
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| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| PIT | +105 | +112 (47.1%) | +1.5 (-245) | -260 (72.2%) | O6.5 (-136) | -146 (59.4%) | +140 | +118 (45.9%) |
| EDM | -125 | -112 (52.9%) | -1.5 (+195) | +260 (27.8%) | U6.5 (+115) | +146 (40.6%) | +120 | +162 (38.2%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +530 (15.9%) |
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| TOR | -121 | +125 (44.4%) | -1.5 (+210) | +380 (20.8%) | O6.5 (-136) | -107 (51.7%) | +120 | +179 (35.8%) |
| VEG | +100 | -125 (55.6%) | +1.5 (-261) | -380 (79.2%) | U6.5 (+115) | +107 (48.3%) | +140 | +113 (47%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +350 | +481 (17.2%) |
CAROLINA HURRICANES at VANCOUVER CANUCKS
|
| ML ODDS | ML PROJ. | PUCK LINE ODDS | PUCK LINE PROJ. | TOTAL ODDS | TOTAL PROJ. | 3-WAY ML ODDS | 3-WAY ML PROJ. |
| CAR | -140 | -173 (63.4%) | -1.5 (+170) | +163 (38%) | O6.5 (-115) | -127 (55.9%) | +105 | -124 (55.3%) |
| VAN | +120 | +173 (36.6%) | +1.5 (-206) | -163 (62%) | U6.5 (-105) | +122 (45.1%) | +165 | +261 (27.7%) |
| TIE |
|
|
|
|
|
| +340 | +490 (17%) |
BETS
- The projections for the Stars / Senators game make it seem like Dallas is a no-brainer from a betting standpoint, but I’m fearful the numbers are too skewed due to a small sample size as well as incredible goaltending from Jake Oettinger. In truth, Ottawa has been one of the better teams in the league to start the season, which isn’t terribly surprising given the quality talent they’ve assembled. The blend of exciting young players like Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson, and Tim Stützle (to name a few) coupled with the experience of a centerman like Claude Giroux give the Sens a potent attack that can strike at any moment. Ottawa’s 5-on-5 advantage is a concern (52.7% Corsi for v. Dallas’ 47%), and Dallas’ outstanding special teams play seems highly unlikely to maintain at this rate (35.3% on the power play; 92.3% on the penalty kill). If not for Oettinger, the Sens would look to be a clear-cut favorite. With the way he’s been going, though, I’m staying away from the game altogether (despite what my numbers say).
- The New Jersey Devils have been better than their 3-2 record would indicate, dominating 5-on-5 play this year against their opponents (63.1% Corsi for; 2nd best in the league) while having the eighth-highest expected goals for of 14.0 (according to hockey-reference.com). The expected goals for number is especially encouraging when factoring in their rather pedestrian power play statistics to this point, converting just two of their fifteen opportunities (13.3%; eighth-worst in the league). New Jersey’s goaltending situation remains their biggest area of concern, but the team’s done a great job of limiting the number of quality scoring chances their opponents have (68.6% scoring chances for percentage; best in the NHL). Mackenzie Blackwood‘s numbers look solid at face value, but he’s faced some mediocre-to-subpar offensive units, dressing his stats up to a degree. Assuming he or Vitek Vanecek (New Jersey starts the first half of back-to-backs tonight) don’t lose the game for the Devils, New Jersey should have every opportunity to prevail in regulation.
- The game of the night takes place at T-Mobile Arena between the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs, and perhaps my model isn’t giving the Leafs enough credit. After losses to the Canadiens and Coyotes in their first four games of the season, it was fair to wonder where this Toronto team was mentally considering they tower over each of those opponents in terms of talent on their roster. Victories over a good, young teams in Ottawa and Dallas along with a 4-1 destruction of the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday allays some of those fears, but the loses to Montreal and Arizona still stick in my mind. Statistically they’ve been better than Vegas to this point in a few key categories (particularly special teams), but I think Vegas has faced better competition to this point (at Seattle, at Calgary, vs. Winnipeg, and vs. Colorado in each of their last four) and they’ve acquitted themselves nicely. If we get the matchup between Ilya Samsonov and Logan Thompson tonight we could be in for a treat, as each goaltender has been outstanding early this year (Samsonov .938 save percentage against 113 shots; Thompson .926 save percentage against 122 shots). With home ice and a slightly better resume to this point, I’m siding with Vegas on The Strip tonight.
- Carolina and Vancouver are surprisingly close in a handful of meaningful categories (even if they aren’t likely to finish all that close to one another), but the key difference in tonight’s contest is special teams. No, the Canes aren’t electric when it comes to converting on the man advantage, cashing in at a rate that’s just above league average (21.05% vs. league average of 20.64%); this doesn’t matter when you’re facing a team that’s a disaster on the PK. Vancouver ranks dead last in the National Hockey League on the penalty kill, fending off a shockingly low 55.56% of their opponents’ chances. This number is more than 20% worse than league average, giving any team they play against an incredible advantage. The good news for Canucks fans is the team does a pretty good job of staying out of the box in the first place (tied for seventh fewest PPs against) – but once they commit a foul? Look out. Carolina is still among the elite in the Eastern Conference and should be able to take care of business in regulation this evening.
THE PLAYS:
- WASHINGTON CAPITALS at NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Devils 3-Way ML (+115)
- TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Golden Knights ML (+100)
- CAROLINA HURRICANES at VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Hurricanes 3-Way ML (+105)