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After an off-day yesterday, the WNBA season continues with four games tonight, all tipping off at 7:00 pm ET. After looking through the odds on PointsBet Sportsbook, I see value on the spread for two matchups on this WNBA slate.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics
While the Washington Mystics got Elena Delle Donne back for the team’s last game, tonight, they will face the LA Sparks without MVP candidate Tina Charles. Nonetheless, Washington is still favored by three points, with a total of 158 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
After getting Nneka Ogwumike back for the season’s second half, the Sparks ripped off a four-game win streak. Ogwumike is a force in transition, ranking in the 98th percentile of Synergy’s Points Per Possession (PPP) in transition while scoring the third-most points off turnovers per game this season. The six-time All-Star is averaging 15.6 points, 2.9 assists and seven rebounds this season with a top-10 effective field goal percentage. Nneka’s sister, Chiney Ogwumike, is also healthy and adds an interior presence to complement the team’s strong guard rotation.
The Sparks average the fewest points per game in the league but boast a strong team defense led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Brittney Sykes. In the team’s most recent win over the Liberty, Sykes had a game-saving block on Sabrina Ionescu‘s game-tying attempt at the buzzer.
The Sparks also have center Amanda Zahui B. as a dominant rim protector who ranks in the 95th percentile of defensive PPP allowed. Los Angeles allowed the fewest PPP against opposing transition possessions and the fourth-fewest overall PPP on defense, according to Synergy. The Sparks also have the second-most steals per game in the league, resulting in a league-leading 18.8 points off turnovers per game while allowing the fewest opposing fast-break points in the WNBA.
Los Angeles is one of the best clutch-time teams in the WNBA, partially due to guard Kristi Toliver. Toliver, who recently became an assistant coach with the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, ranks in the 97th percentile of isolation PPP and hit a game-tying buzzer-beater to force overtime against the Dream last week. Toliver is one of five players on the Sparks to average at least 1.8 clutch-time points per game this year, led by Erica Wheeler‘s 3.6 per game. The Sparks outscore opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions in clutch-time, while opponents outscore the Mystics by 7.8 points per 100 possessions in the clutch.[[ad:athena]]
Contrary to the red-hot Sparks, Washington is on a four-game losing streak since the Olympic break and have lost eight of their last nine games overall. The Mystics don’t have the depth to withstand the loss of Charles, as Washington’s bench puts up the third-fewest points per game this season.
The Mystics have also struggled to score without Charles this season: opponents have outscored the Mystics by 12 points per 100 possessions and held Washington to an abysmal 89.4 offensive rating in the 175 minutes Charles was off the court. Charles leads the WNBA in scoring and usage rate while also pacing the Mystics in rebounds. Washington’s best player will be sorely missed against the Sparks.
Lastly, Washington lost to Los Angeles in the last matchup between these teams even with Charles healthy and both Ogwumike sisters out. The Sparks covered in four of LA’s last five games as underdogs, so the team should be able to at least stay within the spread tonight. My best bet of Tuesday’s WNBA slate is the Sparks to cover +3 against the Washington Mystics.
EDGE: Los Angeles Sparks +3
Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm
The nationally televised game tonight is a battle between the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm. Both teams rank in the top-four of the WNBA standings, but the defending champions could have trouble with the Lynx despite being listed by PointsBet Sportsbook as four-point favorites.
Seattle owns the worst ATS record of any WNBA team this season at 9-16. With no remaining games against the Aces or Sun, tonight’s matchup with the Lynx may be Seattle’s most difficult game until the playoffs. The Storm won and covered in the team’s first two matchups with the Lynx this season, but Minnesota has improved and become healthier since then.
With two losses to the Sun as the only blemishes, Minnesota won and covered in 10 of the team’s last 12 games entering this matchup, including an eight-game win streak before the Olympic break. Connecticut’s strong interior made the Sun a difficult matchup for Minnesota, but the Lynx should fare better against Seattle. The Lynx lead the WNBA in PPP on post-up possessions on the third-highest post-up volume and face the Storm’s mediocre post-up defense, which ranks sixth in PPP allowed.
The Lynx also score the third-most points in the paint this season, while Seattle ranked in the bottom half of the WNBA for points in the paint allowed. Minnesota also has an extra day of rest, which could be important against a veteran Storm team that is 1-5 ATS in the last six games on one day of rest. My biggest concern with the Lynx in this matchup is the team’s league-worst transition defense, however the Storm could be too tired to maximize this advantage -- the team’s stars played heavy minutes in the Olympics and Commissioner’s Cup before the season resumed.
Sylvia Fowles should have another big game against the Storm. Fowles, the WNBA’s leader in field-goal percentage this season, averages 16.1 points and 9.6 rebounds to go along with DPOY-caliber defense. Fowles is tied for the league lead in defensive win shares and is the only center in the top-10 for steal rate this season.
The Lynx’s leading scorer is Napheesa Collier, who put up 16.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game this year. Layshia Clarendon has also been an impactful addition for the Lynx: they are averaging 13.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and six assists per game in their last ten games while serving as a steady point guard for Minnesota.
Minnesota lifted COVID-19 capacity restrictions during the Olympic break and data from Across the Timeline shows that attendance at Lynx games is on the rise. This should allow the Lynx to improve on an already-impressive 15-7 ATS mark in the team’s last 22 games as home underdogs. I like fading Seattle as road favorites this season, as the Storm only covered in one of the team’s last nine contests as favorites and own a 2-6 ATS record in the last eight road games. My pick for this matchup between the Storm and Lynx is Minnesota to cover the spread at +4.
EDGE: Minnesota Lynx +4
