It’s still early in the season and only three races have been run on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. Atlanta Motor Speedway went to Brad Keselowski. Joey Logano won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Denny Hamlin winning at Texas Motor Speedway. None of those drivers have swept the top 10 on this track type, however. There is a strong likelihood that a fourth different driver will win the Digital Ally 400 at Kansas Speedway.
In Week 12, it’s time to start thinking about allocation management in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game. If you are beginning to be exhausted of the marquee picks, it’s time to look deeper in the pack and focus on drivers who have been consistent on this course type even if they have not shown as much raw power as the three winners. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Aric Almirola have swept the top 10 in the first three 1.5-mile races and they should all be on a fantasy player’s radar.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Winning can become addictive. With victories at Richmond Raceway and Dover International Speedway in the past two weeks, Truex is likely to be even hungrier to find Victory Lane again at Kansas. He swept the track in 2017 and had top-fives in both events last year. In 2012, he posted back-to-back second-place finishes. This is a track on which he’s been solid and consistent and that has proven to be a good predictor of his results.
Kyle Larson
Now that he has the monkey off his back, Larson is a good value. He’s been fast much of the year, but he’s failed to reach the end of races unscathed. After five consecutive weeks outside the top 15, he finally got to the checkers at Dover with a car capable of showcasing his talent – and he finished third. At Kansas, he finished fourth and third in last year’s races. Expect another top-five this week.
Chase Elliott
Elliott at Kansas is somewhat analogous to Kyle Busch at Dover: He’s been stronger in the Fall than Spring. Last year, Elliott finished 12th. In 2017, he was 29th in this race. Elliott’s record is not as long as Busch’s was in Dover, however, and that makes his pair of top-fives in the last two Fall races a bigger part of his stats. Elliott won on this track last year. He’s coming off back-to-back top-fives in the last two weeks and it finally appears that Hendrick Motorsports is getting their program turned around.
Kyle Busch
The 1.5-mile tracks have been very kind to Busch. From the beginning of last year, Busch has earned top-10s in all but one of 14 races on them. His worst finish was a 17th last Fall at Texas and even with that modest result, his average of is 5.2 is buoyed by three wins. At Kansas, he’s been just as strong with an eight-race, top-10 streak that boasts an average of 5.1. The odds are excellent that he is going to set a new record for the most top-10s to start a season and it’s likely that he does so in style while challenging for a victory.
Aric Almirola
Almirola has stumbled a few times in the last four races. He finished outside the top 20 at Bristol Motor Speedway and Richmond. Last week, he was 16th at Dover. Those are all short courses, however, and that is not how he should be judged this week. On the 1.5-mile tracks, Almirola has been the paragon of consistency with eight straight results of sixth through 10th. In all likelihood, that is where he will finish again this week.
Value Pick
Jones found his rhythm at the right time. Finishing sixth last week at Dover gives him confidence as the series hits a track on which he swept the top 10 last year. We’re not quite ready to wave an enthusiastic green flag over his head because he was outside the top 20 in both of his rookie races on this Midwestern track, but even though he finished badly that year, he ran well and earned stage points in three of the four segments.
Garage Pick
The 1.5-mile tracks can be difficult to handicap not because there are a lack of contenders, but because there are so many who run well on them. In order to contend for a championship, a team’s program on this type of track has to be spot on and the driver has to be able to give exceptional feedback. Chip Ganassi Racing does not have the same reputation as Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, or Team Penske – and that makes it difficult to recommend them each week. Busch has a tendency to finish well on this track type, however, with five consecutive top-10s including a third at Atlanta earlier this year. He’s a good driver to have waiting in the wings.
Red Flag
Blaney might be a solid choice for Stage wins, but he has had difficulty in getting to the end of a race on the 1.5-milers unscathed this year. He has failed to finish on the lead lap a single time in three attempts on this track type with a best of 22nd. What makes this all the more frustrating is that he has shown so much speed and managed to stay out of trouble on most of the courses 1-mile or less in length.
Segment wins and points at Kansas | |||
Driver | Segment | Segments | Segment |
63 | 8 | 2 | |
59 | 7 | 1 | |
55 | 8 | 2 | |
37 | 5 | 1 | |
32 | 5 | 1 | |
30 | 5 | 1 | |
22 | 5 | ||
22 | 3 | ||
17 | 6 | ||
Jamie McMurray | 17 | 3 | |
16 | 5 | ||
15 | 3 | ||
14 | 4 | ||
Matt Kenseth | 12 | 3 | |
8 | 3 | ||
7 | 3 | ||
Kasey Kahne | 6 | 2 | |
6 | 1 | ||
2 | 1 |
