When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
Players I’m fading for Week 5 include:
Miles Sanders, RB Philadelphia
Sanders fantasy production has dwindled each week, to the point where he doesn’t look matchup-proof. Especially at his RB 4-5 salary on FanDuel and DraftKings. Yahoo has him slightly better priced at $20, but with the Sunday night game in play there, you have two additional options I like more than Sanders. Now consider that the Steelers might have the best defense in the league. Sanders looked like the only functioning piece of the Eagles’ offense in Weeks 2 & 3, but I expect him to be shut right down in Week 5. What’s more, the Steelers are big favorites in this low-total game, which means I’m also buying the Steelers D/ST this week, and I generally won’t roster opponent skill players.
Cooper Kupp, WR LA Rams
There’s not a super-obvious set of must-play receivers this weekend, so I expect a lot of lineup diversity at this position (see my choices for most-popular below). Even while I embrace it, I keep scrolling past Kupp. Part of me thinks Tyler Higbee is the Ram who will have a nice rebound game. Part of me thinks the offense will again be spread out and Kupp is least likely to return on the higher investment he requires (vs. Robert Woods or Higbee). I don’t hate Kupp, I just think 10 points is a likely outcome for him this week.
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Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta
This is a huge game for DFS. Most of us are super heavy on the Carolina side, given that Atlanta’s so-called defense has allowed the second-most points in the league, most fantasy points to QBs. Yet the spread isn’t very wide; the Falcons are 1.5-point home favorites. With an implied team total like this (27.5 points), Ryan might be tempting until you consider that Carolina ranks second-last in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Now that may be partially due to how easy it has been to run on them, but only Justin Herbert has thrown for more than 240 yards on them. They’ve given up fewer points the last two weeks (16 and 21 points) and upped their turnover stock with four fumble recoveries and an interception. They had three sacks in the last two weeks. Those certainly aren’t numbers to worry about in a vacuum, but with Ryan set to be without Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley clearly less than 100 percent, he’s far from a sure-thing great QB play. My preferred approach to this game is a modest Panthers stack with a splash of Atlanta like Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, or Olamide Zaccheus if you’re a real gambler.
Philip Rivers, QB Indianapolis
It’s not hard to find big game totals this week, but it is hard to find narrow spreads. This is the closest – the Colts are now just one-point favorites after opening at minus-2.5 points. The total has also risen 1.5 points since it opened. Cleveland is starting to show how functional its offense can finally be, so while the Colts’ defense has been great, bettors believe in the Browns. So, Rivers. He’s been terrible, ranking 28th in fantasy points on the season, and 22nd in pass attempts. He has four touchdowns and three picks through four games. Yuck. But just in case you saw what numbers Dak Prescott put up last week on the Browns and think this is going to be a piece of cake shootout for Rivers, I’m saying no. I’m also fading Baker Mayfield in this game, FWIW, since he has even lower volume than Rivers on the run-first Browns.
David Johnson, RB Houston
There are players that we know we should fade, but feel like they just have that chance to post big numbers, despite not taking advantage of previous opportunities to do so (e.g. Minnesota in Week 4, where he had his highest volume of carries yet – 16). There are lots of them, but Johnson has to be prominent on the list this week. The matchup is so tempting as the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Houston has one of the best implied team totals of the week. I’m bullish on the Texans passing game, and leaving an ever-cheaper Johnson off my lineups this weekend.
Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 5 include: Teddy Bridgewater, Deshaun Watson, Mike Davis, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Darius Slayton, Robby Anderson, Will Fuller V, Steelers D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs.
