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Quarterback
Chalk
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes
It’s pretty clear that the KC/BUF game will be teeming with popular plays. Instead of telling you why they are good plays, I want to look at how the field attacked similar games this year.
Using our betting tools, I found two games this year with totals over 53 points. The first, ARI/KC from Week 1, featured two of the three most popular receivers on DraftKings and the most popular tight end. Surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes was only the QB3 by ownership and the running backs were not popular.
The second, BUF/MIA from Week 3, showed a similar story. Three of the five most popular receivers and two of the top three quarterbacks came from this game. Running backs, once again, were mostly overlooked. For this game, tight ends didn’t make much noise either.
This week, getting unique pairings like running backs and quarterbacks or the deep options at receiver—like Mecole Hardman or Isaiah McKenzie—is a must.
Pivots
The Bucs are playing fun football again, registering a pass rate over expected of 17 percent over the past two weeks. Since getting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back in the lineup, Tampa Bay has become the pass-happy team they were in 2021.
Now Brady and company are facing a Pittsburgh defense that will likely be missing multiple corners and safeties this week.
Lamar Jackson
If the chalk game of the week goes off, your quarterback is going to need 40 points to compete with whatever Allen or Mahomes drop. Luckily for Jackson, he has the highest ceiling of any quarterback. His 48.6 DraftKings points in Week 2 are the most by any player this year. He threw for 300 and ran for 100, giving him two bonuses. He also topped 40 points in Week 3, making him the only player to do so twice this season.
Running Back
Chalk
With Damien Harris going down mid-game in Week 5, Stevenson was able to set a career-high in rush attempts (26). That mark also tied the high he set in two seasons at Oklahoma. The Pats will add another running back to the mix this week, likely Pierre Strong, but Stevenson has been elite on the ground and competent as a pass-catcher. He should have a large role even with a backup active.
Stevenson, Ken Walker, and Benjamin are all underpriced for their respective roles, but this is a slate where paying up at nearly every other position makes sense. Going to Benjamin, who is just $4,800 on DraftKings, opens up a lot of possibilities.
Benjamin is a favorite of 2.5 points facing the defense ranked 31st in DraftKings points allowed. James Conner and Darrel Williams are out this weeks, giving him the start in a great matchup.
Pivots
The Seahawks lost Rashaad Penny to a broken leg mid-game last week. In his absence, Walker out-carried DeeJay Dallas 8-1. Dallas played almost exclusively on passing downs. Walker should get nearly every carry and a handful of targets for an offense that ranks seventh in points per game.
Looking at the other games that were massively chalky this year, running back was the one position that was left behind. Singletary can be used as a stacking option with Allen based on his receiving role. The Chiefs have allowed 57 targets and 350 yards to opposing running backs. That’s 10 more targets and 70 more yards than any other team.
Wide Receiver
Chalk
Diggs is sixth in the NFL in targets (51) and fifth in air yards (528). His volume is elite and comes from the hands of one of the league’s best passers. He plays in the game of the year this week.
Lockett has seen three fewer targets but more air yards than DK Metcalf. The Seahawks are the only team with two players ranked inside the top 20 in weighted opportunity rating. With the team only passing to two receivers, ranking top-10 in passing yards per game is more than enough for both wideouts to be strong fantasy plays.
There are only five players with a target share over 30 percent and an air yards share over 35 percent. Removing Meyers, the average salary of these players is $7,800 on DraftKings this week. That number would be even higher if Davante Adams wasn’t on bye. Meyers is playing the role of an alpha on his team but has a price tag of a WR2.
Pivots
Like Gabe Davis before him, JuJu plays the bulk of the snaps on one of the league’s best offenses. He’s also been the Mahomes’ go-to option versus zone coverage, which the Bills have been running at one of the highest rates in the league. He has a 26 percent target share and a 25 percent air yards share versus zone, both of which lead the Chiefs.
Godwin returned two weeks ago and has seen 16 targets. The Bucs look to still be without Julio Jones, keeping Godwin’s target floor high. The Steelers rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to receivers (in a good way). Tampa Bay also has the second-highest implied team total of the week.
We’re likely getting Skylar Thompson this week, but the Dolphins play football in a way that should make us want to attack their receivers, regardless of who’s throwing them the ball. Hill ranks fourth in total yards after the catch while Waddle ranks seventh. The two are first and third in yards per route run. Mike McDaniel gets his play-makers the ball in space and lets them work.
Tight End
Chalk
I’ll keep writing this until it isn’t true. Higbee leads all tight ends in targets (48) through five weeks. He has seen at least nine targets in all but one game. Higbee remains underpriced on DraftKings ($4,600) and Fanduel ($6,200).
Kelce leads all players in red zone targets (14) and all tight ends in end zone targets (6). In a game with a lot of scoring, finding paydirt multiple times feels like the baseline for Kansas City’s de facto WR1.
Pivots
Knox had played on at least 69 percent of the Bills’ snaps in every game before missing Week 5. He has been used more as a blocker this year, but his price is down to $3,400 on DraftKings and $5,100 on Fanduel. He doesn’t need to be a 10-target player to pay off those prices.
Sometimes, the best logic I can muster is we want to be playing extremely talented players when they aren’t going to be popular. Kittle fits that bill and his role hasn’t changed.
I'll let you guess who is more expensive on Fanduel, and who is George Kittle. pic.twitter.com/M39eO2b2Yb
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) October 14, 2022
Since returning to the lineup, he has a snap share over 90 percent and has run a route on at least 80 percent of Jimmy Garoppolo‘s dropbacks in all three games.
In the history of the league, Kittle is the only tight end with multiple games over 180 yards. He has three such performances. If we’re not playing him now, when are we?