If there’s value to be found in every round, the same is true for boondoggles. Every part of the board has its own trap doors and secret passageways. Here we’ll take a round-by-round look at overdrafts and steals through the first 10 frames.
Note: ADPs are courtesy of FantasyPros.com, which uses data from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS, among other services.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, player profiles, positional tiers, mock drafts, sleepers and busts, exclusive columns and plenty more, check out our Draft Guide!
Round 1
Undervalued: None
You could argue this is a cop-out argument for the opening paragraph of an article about undervalued and overvalued players, but there are simply no bargains to be found in Round 1. The iron price takes the day, with owners barreling ahead on best-case scenarios for players like David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. That is not to say they’re overvalued — it’s a really weird year at running back, as usual — but you’re not getting a cent off sticker price. The same goes for Dez Bryant and A.J. Green. Again, the price is right for both — Dez scores touchdowns for a living and Green will be a target vacuum — but “value” is not an applicable concept for any of this year’s top-12 players.
Overvalued: Le’Veon Bell (9.7)
I assessed Bell’s risk in greater detail a few weeks ago, but the short of it? He’s already guaranteed to miss 30.7 percent of the fantasy regular season, and his uncertainty comes on two fronts, suspension and injury. Unless you’re the big expert in a small pond of home-league fish, are you really maximizing your playoff odds by using your first-rounder on someone missing a third of the fantasy season? And those are just the games we know Bell will be unavailable for. In three years Bell has suffered three major injuries and been dealt two suspensions. To take his post-Week 5 status for granted would be foolish. You can bet the Steelers aren’t. Bell’s upside is momentous, but the downside is too precipitous in a round where you have to hit a home run.
Round 2
Undervalued: Mark Ingram (23.5)
The RB9 by average points each of the past two seasons, Ingram is going as the RB11. It’s hardly insane — Ingram has missed at least three games each of the past three years — but puts him behind a riskier Eddie Lacy. I’d argue Jamaal Charles and Devonta Freeman both come with more hazard, as well. Ingram entered 2015 with all of 53 career catches, but quietly snagged 50 balls, coming in eighth amongst runners despite playing only 12 games. The new dimension to Ingram’s game dramatically raises his floor, and lessens the sting of the zero-score weeks that made him a more perilous fantasy option in years past. Ingram now has two weekly safety valves, touchdowns and receptions. There should be plenty of both to go around in an offense that remains one of the league’s most lethal.
Overvalued: Jordy Nelson (16.7)
Nelson was one of the best players in the league in 2013-14, but has since turned 30 and suffered two knee injuries. This summer’s, tendinitis, is minor, but last year’s, torn ACL, was not. That doesn’t mean Nelson can’t still be a WR1, but he’s going ahead of safer options (Brandon Marshall and T.Y. Hilton) and higher-upside ones (Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans) alike. Nelson should ideally be on the WR1/2 borderline. That prices in both his past production and 2016 risk. WR8 focuses too much on the former at the expense of the latter, making for a time-bomb pick in a round where there’s no need for such volatility.
Round 3
Undervalued: T.Y. Hilton (32.5)
Headed into his age-27 campaign, Hilton has been one of the most consistent players in football over the past three seasons, averaging 78 catches for 1,184 yards and six touchdowns. He has missed only two games in four years. Hilton went 69/1,124/5 in 2015 even though 51.5 percent of his targets came from Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley. Now he’s getting back Andrew Luck, and is the focal point of an aggressive vertical attack moving on from two-TE sets in favor of three-receiver looks. Durable, consistent and smack dab in the middle of his prime, Hilton should outperform his WR17 price tag.
Overvalued: Kelvin Benjamin (36.7)
Being drafted as the WR18, players are chasing Benjamin’s best-case scenario after he missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL. WR18 is not an inconceivable outcome after Benjamin was force-fed nine touchdown receptions in 2014, but it’s far from the most likely. Benjamin was wildly inefficient as a rookie, and is returning to an offense with more options than it had two years ago, including promising sophomore Devin Funchess and 2015 surprise Ted Ginn. Benjamin isn’t as big of a bust candidate as he’s being made out to be in some circles, but is going ahead of at least 5-6 better bets at receiver, Jarvis Landry and Jeremy Maclin chief among them.
Round 4
Undervalued: Jarvis Landry (48.0)
A Welker-ian compiler who has averaged an anemic 9.9 yards per catch through the first two years of his career, Landry is not a fun player to draft in standard leagues. But he sure is a sensible one. More durable than Julian Edelman and more consistent than Golden Tate, Landry is the center of the Dolphins’ offensive universe. Just ask new coach Adam Gase. “(Somehow) the ball gets to him,” Gase said. “The guy is like a magnet.” It’s true that Landry shouldn’t be the focal point of Ryan Tannehill’s targets, but he is, and there’s little reason to expect that to change in 2016. Last year’s WR17 in standard, Landry is about as exciting as an IKEA bookshelf, but IKEA bookshelves are solid and dependable. There’s nothing wrong with a responsible draft pick.
Overvalued: DeMarco Murray (45.8)
Even before Derrick Henry lit up the preseason, Murray was going too high in fantasy drafts. Now he’s looking like a true albatross, a looming anchor for owners stuck in 2014. Admittedly, I beat the Murray drum last season. Let’s just say I won’t be making that mistake again. Murray looked completely out of gas for the Eagles, and is going to be pushed on all three downs in Tennessee. Let’s think positive and assume Murray not only leads the Titans’ committee, but keeps catching passes. Even in that favorable scenario, Henry will be the favorite near the goal line, and Dexter McCluster a gnat in passing situations. Murray has little shot at living up to his RB18 cost.
Round 5
Undervalued: Drew Brees (54.5)
Brees has averaged 5,128 yards and 39 touchdowns over the past five seasons, and has his best supporting cast in years. So why is he only the fifth quarterback off the board? Brees has lost nothing physically, and is adding Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener to a corps of pass catchers that was held together by duct tape and glue last season. Brees is simply too consistent to be going behind players with Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and arguably even Aaron Rodgers’ question marks. He’ll be a steal if he remains the QB5. (Note: Roethlisberger had been going ahead of Brees, with Brees just now passing him.)
Overvalued: Larry Fitzgerald (58.8)
Fitzgerald is a living legend coming off a strong year, but Michael Floyd and John Brown have surpassed him as playmakers in the Cardinals’ receiver corps. That’s to say nothing of David Johnson, a special sophomore back ticketed for a massive role. And great as Fitz’s 2015 numbers were, they collapsed in the second half (9.4 yards per catch) as coach Bruce Arians began employing his future Hall-of-Famer as a Hines Ward dirty jobs type. Fitz’s WR27 ADP is far from offensive, and actually shows impressive restraint after he finished as the WR9 by total points last season. But I still think he has farther to fall, probably to the Vincent Jackson part of the board. That’s WR36-45 territory. Fitz will be a regrettable fifth-rounder for all who take the plunge.
Round 6
Undervalued: John Brown (74.2)
Brown finds himself going behind players like Jordan Matthews and DeVante Parker, a wildly inconsistent compiler and sophomore whose best-case scenario is probably Brown’s 2015. Brown’s problem is the competition for targets in his own receiver corps, but his film reveals a poor man’s Antonio Brown as a route runner who can rip the lids off defenses like Odell Beckham. He’s the kind of explosive-play threat you should bet on every year. Brown isn’t about to catch 120 passes or blow by 1,500 yards, but is capable of singlehandedly winning weeks. It’s not even a discussion if you’re deciding between Brown and Matthews. Brown is a ridiculous steal as the WR32.
Overvalued: Carson Palmer (69.3)
If there’s a concern for John Brown, it’s his aging quarterback. Palmer had an elite 2015, but faded badly down the stretch, struggling through a finger injury. Palmer went Full Delhomme in the playoffs, committing eight turnovers while generating only four touchdowns. It was a concerning development for a 36-year-old quarterback limited to six games by knee and nerve issues in 2014. Palmer has an elite supporting cast and coaching staff, but is a durability time bomb. He shouldn’t be going ahead of sturdier veterans like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
Round 7
Undervalued: Arian Foster (82.7)
Everyone knows Foster’s injury history is the longest book on the market, but it’s coming at an extreme value this season. There’s genuine uncertainty, but at least thus far, owners have properly priced it into his RB33 price tag. The Dolphins have all but confirmed they’re ticketing Foster for an every-down role. That gives him mouthwatering upside as a player barely being drafted as an RB3. Foster might only play four games, but that’s a risk you can afford to take in the seventh round. It’s not the most likely outcome, but there’s a possibility Foster ends up a league-winning selection.
Overvalued: Jay Ajayi (86.0)
Foster’s gain is partly because of Ajayi’s pain. Ajayi tumbled in the draft because of a “bone-on-bone” knee condition. He then missed the first seven games of his career with a hip injury. The Dolphins let Lamar Miller walk in free agency, but not because they trusted Ajayi to stay healthy. They spent the entire offseason looking for competition before finally settling on Foster. As Foster impressed early in camp, Ajayi missed time with another knee issue. A zero in the passing game, Ajayi’s value will be a question mark even if Foster immediately goes down. Ajayi is a wild overdraft as the RB33.
Round 8
Undervalued: Justin Forsett (97.0)
Forsett’s tumble is understandable. He’s a 30-year-old back with 1.5 years of starting experience who has missed 13 games over the past three seasons. The Ravens have a talented rookie in Kenneth Dixon and post-hype sleeper in Terrance West. Forsett’s standing atop the depth chart is tenuous. But “atop” is the key word. Coach John Harbaugh has all but confirmed No. 1 status remains Forsett’s to lose. “I see the same running back that we had two years ago, in terms of his speed, his explosiveness, his vision,” Harbaugh said. Forsett was the RB8 in 2014. “I know there’s a lot of talk about the other guys, but he’s playing really well.” Baltimore seems to be readying for a committee, but Forsett will be the chairman. RB36 is a fair price to pay in standard leagues, especially when T.J. Yeldon and Danny Woodhead are the two backs going directly ahead of him. Forsett’s 2014 was an outlier, but he has a promising role at an affordable price.
Overvalued: Michael Crabtree (94.3)
WR37 is not a ridiculous price for Crabtree. The problem is his near total lack of upside. Playing in an offense that wants to run more, Crabtree is decidedly not its No. 1 receiver, and could even have competition for the No. 2 spot from Seth Roberts. Handed a lucrative new contract extension last December, Crabtree immediately packed it in upon getting paid, catching 19 passes for 162 yards (8.52 YPC) over his final four games. Crabtree is supposedly a red zone threat, but has an imminently modest 35 scores in 95 career contests. He flukily out-targeted Amari Cooper 13-7 inside the 20 last season, but that’s not going to happen again. Crabtree is a 29-year-old receiver (next month) who has averaged 55.3 yards per game as an NFLer. He might very well indeed end up the WR37, but why draft the WR37 when so many other higher-upside options are available? (Sterling Shepard, Marvin Jones, Corey Coleman etc.)
Round 9
Undervalued: Philip Rivers (101.0)
The QB10 and QB9 over his past two seasons, Rivers is currently going as the QB11. It’s by no means an unforgivable oversight, especially considering Rivers’ recent slow finishes. But last year’s fade was fueled by his supporting cast’s injuries, while 2014’s was due to Rivers’ bulky back. That’s not necessarily a positive, but Rivers is a 34-year-old quarterback who’s never missed a start. The same can’t be said for the signal caller who had been going directly ahead of him, Tony Romo. (Rivers has now edged ahead of Romo.) Rivers also shouldn’t be falling behind the QB9, Tom Brady. Brady figures to narrowly out-produce Rivers on a per-game basis, but is already missing four of them. Rivers has his best receiver corps in years, and is reuniting with OC Ken Whisenhunt, the coach who helped launch his mid-career revival in 2013. Rivers is falling too far in fantasy drafts.
Overvalued: Steve Smith Sr. (117.2)
Senior is a legend. There’s no other way to put it. But not even legendary status can make up for a “double ruptured” Achilles’ tendon at the age of 37. Yet to practice this summer, it’s worth remembering that Senior’s retirement was originally planned for last season. In other words, he already had one foot out the door. Smith has suggested his main motivation for coming back is to get to 1,000 catches. That is not the kind of talk you would get from a Senior who thought he was at the top of his game. Now it’s up to fantasy owners to come to the same conclusion. Aging and coming off a major injury in one of the league’s most jumbled receiver corps, Senior has no shot at living up to his current WR43 ADP.
Round 10
Undervalued: Markus Wheaton (122.7)
A severe underachiever his first two years in the league, it’s hard to muster much enthusiasm for Wheaton even after last season’s 44/749/5 line. But fantasy owners seem to have taken the “lesson” of Wheaton’s 2013-14 a little too close to heart, letting him and his enviable role slide past players like an injured Jimmy Graham and suspended Karlos Williams. Wheaton’s role is unambiguous: He’s the No. 2 receiver for one of the league’s most aggressive offenses. The Steelers have averaged 591 pass attempts since OC Todd Haley came to town in 2012. This season, they’ll be making up for the loss of Martavis Bryant, the suspension of Le’Veon Bell and the never was of Ladarius Green. There are targets to be spared, and Wheaton is going to soak them up one year after averaging an eye-popping 17.0 yards per reception. You may not love Wheaton’s game, but you have to respect his role.
Overvalued: Jimmy Graham (114.7)
Returning from the same injury that’s sidelined Victor Cruz for two years, Graham is supposedly ahead of schedule in his recovery. But even were Graham to maintain his health for 16 games — something incongruent with a torn patellar tendon — he’s returning to a different reality than the one he arrived to in Seattle. The Seahawks are a genuine three deep at receiver, and swear they’ll remain committed to the run. It means that, coming off a season where he was disappointing even before his injury, Graham is going to have a tough time commanding looks in a crowded offense. Graham was a league-winner in New Orleans, but his TE12 ADP is a reflection of his glorious past, not his muddled present. Graham is bound to disappoint as a 10th-round pick.
