The 2023 NFL Draft officially begins in less than two weeks. Analysts’ position rankings, mock drafts and big boards are seemingly being adjusted every day. It should come as no surprise that there are a number of prospects draft analysts don’t necessarily fully agree upon based on their rankings -- just like our very own Eric Froton and Connor Rogers.
Last week we highlighted the difference in their WR rankings and this week we are turning our attention to their RB rankings.
Once again, you can check out Froton’s full rankings right here and Rogers’ full rankings right here, but we wanted to highlight four running backs in particular that these two have differing opinions on: Ole Miss’ Zach Evans, Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda, TCU’s Kendre Miller and Oklahoma’s Eric Gray.
Froton has Evans and Miller in his top 10 rankings (No. 4 and No. 6), while Rogers doesn’t have either in his. Likewise, Rogers has Abanikanda and Gray among his top 10 (No. 5 and No. 8), while Froton does not.
Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss
Froton’s stance:
While much was made of Evans (5'11/202) weighing in at 202 at the Combine, where he didn’t test because of a hamstring issue, he weighed in at a sturdy 208 at his Pro Day workout where he ran a 4.50 40-yard dash. Also, of particular note was a sensational 6.89 3-Cone drill (89th percentile) and a 8.74 RAS (Relative Athletic Score) that actually increases to 8.97 if you account for Evans’ current weight of 208. The threshold for between-the-tackles work I seek is at least 210 pounds and he’s going to be playing in the 210-215 pound range once he is immersed into the NFL training regimen. He also has unnaturally huge 10.25” hands, which will help in the receiving game and with his ball security.
All that being said, it’s important to remember what makes Evans special on the field: his ability to hit big plays. In fact, Zach Evans led all Power Five running backs by gaining 10-plus yards on 22% of his carries, and picking up first downs on 35% of his totes over the last two seasons. He also owns a very strong 4.21 yards after contact average for his career, which is a telltale harbinger of NFL success. While Evans has some potential character hurdles to answer for before NFL teams buy into him, I’ve seen enough on the field and in testing to justify ranking him high in my top 10.
Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
Rogers’ stance:
Abanikanda has a calling card in this draft class: home run speed. He was timed in the 4.26-4.32 range in the forty at his Pro Day, while posting a 41" vertical. What makes this enticing is that he boasts a 216-pound workhorse frame, meaning he’ll have more opportunities to rip off huge runs.
The Brooklyn product exploded in 2022 as a true junior with over 1,400 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He has natural feel behind his blockers, surging into his rush lanes with instant acceleration. Linebackers and safeties consistently struggle taking the right angles against him at the second level. Per PFF, he ripped off 38 runs of 10-plus yards last season.
Overall, Abanikanda won’t have an early pass game role in the pros but he’s a special running threat suited for both inside and outside zone. Plus, he’ll open the 2023 NFL season as a 20-year-old rookie.
Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
Froton’s stance:
Zach Evans’ former backfield-mate, Miller (5'11/215) might not have the five-star pedigree of Evans, but he has a similar penchant for big plays by breaking 18 rushes of 20-plus yards over the last two seasons (8th in FBS). The well-built 215-pounder has the frame, contact balance and mentality to handle a 15-plus carry workload, as is evidenced by his 181.1 PFF Elusiveness Rating which was the second-highest mark nationally in 2021 (Ohio State’s Miyan Williams was No. 1). He isn’t just a home run threat either, as Miller scored 11 touchdowns on 30 red-zone carries last year, good for the 5th best red-zone carry-to-TD rate in the Power Five, to go along with a superb 12 carries-per-touchdown average, which is the best mark in the country since 2021.
The big knock on Miller was his non-existent presence in TCU’s passing game and relatively poor pass blocking acumen, which is laid bare by his 31.2 PFF pass block grade. However, with verified exceptional ability in multiple areas that serve as important predictive measures, and an NFL-ready body that helps him dodge tacklers at an advanced rate, I easily rank Miller in my top 10.
Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma
Rogers’ stance:
Gray is a jack of all trades running back who really found his groove during his final college season. He’s a compact runner with ideal mass and his ability to cut in the open field leaves defenders looking foolish. He’s got soft hands and acceleration after the catch, specifically on swing passes that give him momentum. Plus, there’s little wasted time in his transition from hauling in the ball to becoming a runner in space.
Overall, Gray can be trusted in a variety of roles whether it’s as an early-down runner or third-down pass catcher. Coaches will also appreciate his effort in pass protection, enabling him to gain early trust to get on the field as a rookie. Some of his game reminds me of Kareem Hunt.
