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We are double-digit weeks into the NFL season. It’s time to batten down the hatches for your playoff push – and that means diving into the data to figure out what matters and what doesn’t. That’s easier said than done with so many games every weekend, but Strength in Numbers is here to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format. Let’s get right to it.
1. Jermar Jefferson got hurt on Sunday, thrusting D’Andre Swift even more into the workhorse role he has been in with Jamaal Williams injured. Swift had 33 carries, a number that only one other running back – Derrick Henry – has reached in a game this year. He played 66-of-71 snaps (93.0%) and ran 26 routes on 29 dropbacks (89.7%) in addition to his enormous rushing workload. Godwin Igwebuike – who converted to running back in the NFL after playing safety at Northwestern – operated as Swift’s backup against the Steelers.
D'Andre Swift had 33 rush attempts today. Derrick Henry's the only other running back this season to hit that mark, and he did it twice. Unlike Henry, Swift combined that with a 25% target share as well. Insane usage.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 15, 2021
Williams (thigh) got in a couple of limited practices before Week 8 but ended up sitting, and then the Lions had their bye in Week 9. Curiously, he then didn’t practice at all in advance of Week 10 and ended up sitting out again. It’s unclear when he’ll be able to return, but what is evident is how lucrative Swift’s role is without the complementary Williams. Swift’s passing-game usage has been mouth-watering all season long, but he has finally monopolized the rushing work too with Williams out. And he could take that to another level in Week 11 if rookie Jermar Jefferson can’t play and it’s only Swift, Igwebuike, and potentially Craig Reynolds, who is currently on the practice squad.
Swift is a no-doubt RB1 in PPR regardless of whether Williams plays, but he’s among the most powerful assets in fantasy if he’s the lone wolf in Detroit’s backfield. Keep an eye on injury reports during the week to see who’s healthy. It’s also possible Swift’s performance over the past few weeks has earned him a larger role even once Williams returns.
2. Rashaad Penny did not play a snap in Week 10. Travis Homer led Seahawks running backs in snaps with 31 out of 61 total plays (Alex Collins had the remaining 30) in negative game script. Collins had 10 carries to Homer’s one, while Homer ran 23 routes and had four targets to Collins’ 18 and one, respectively.
After playing 11 snaps in Week 9, Penny interestingly failed to record a snap in Week 10 against the Packers. The Seahawks deployed a fairly binary system with Collins as the early-down rusher and Homer as the pass-catching third-down back. Homer ended up playing more snaps because Seattle was in negative game script the entire game.
The Seahawks designated Chris Carson to return from injured reserve on November 10, meaning they have 21 days from that date to elevate him back to the active roster. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll – who is typically optimistic on injuries – said last Friday that he “didn’t think it was time yet” for Carson to rejoin the 53-player squad. That makes it sound like his Week 11 availability is also in doubt, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Penny is droppable in all formats, while Collins has some value as long as Carson is out, and Homer is nothing more than a thorn in the side of Collins managers.
3. Byron Pringle finally surpassed Mecole Hardman in Week 10, out-routing the Georgia product 34-17. Demarcus Robinson (23) also ran more routes than Hardman. Josh Gordon (20) did too. That’s right: Hardman finished fifth among Chiefs wideouts in routes.
Before Week 10, Hardman’s lowest snap share of the season was 49%. He only had two games below a 60% snap share.
Against the Raiders, the speedster played on just 32% of snaps and finished fifth among Kansas City wideouts in routes. It wasn’t just Pringle overtaking him for the WR2 role; Robinson and Gordon played ahead of him too. It’s unclear whether something happened behind the scenes that we don’t know about for Hardman to move from WR2 to WR5, but an already inconsistent option is now downright unplayable given what happened on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, Pringle is worth picking up in deeper formats, although the next week or two will give us a better idea of how much we should believe Hardman’s sudden demotion. Week 10 was Pringle’s first game playing the majority of snaps, although his arrow has been consistently pointed upward after opening 2021 as the WR4 behind both Hardman and Robinson.
4. Jonathan Taylor set season-highs in snap share, percent of backfield touches, targets, and target share. He also had 21 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Marlon Mack has been a healthy scratch in each of the past two games.
Mack hasn’t been active in a game since the trade deadline when the Colts were unable to find a suitor. Taylor and Nyheim Hines are the only two Indianapolis running backs to play a snap in the past two games.
Season-highs for Jonathan Taylor Sunday:
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) November 15, 2021
* 84% snaps
* 87% of Colts RB touches
* 8 targets
* 23.5% target share
Charmin-soft matchups against the Jets and Jaguars in Week 9 and Week 10, respectively, allowed Taylor to post such monstrous numbers. The next couple of weeks against the Bills and Buccaneers won’t be as fantasy-friendly, but Taylor is the only man in town on early downs as long as the Colts keep scratching Mack, and he has had games recently where he’s been adequately involved as a receiver. You don’t need me to tell you this, but Taylor is a high-end RB1, although the next two games don’t look like ideal environments on paper.
5. In six games with Jerry Jeudy out, Courtland Sutton has averaged 9.1 targets and a 24.8% target share. In four games with Jeudy in, he has averaged 3.0 targets and a 9.7% target share.
Courtland Sutton’s averages in six games without Jerry Jeudy:
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) November 15, 2021
9.1 targets, 24.8% share
In four games with Jeudy:
3 targets, 9.7% share
In four games with Jeudy, Sutton has 17.2 total fantasy points. Without Jeudy, he’s averaging 16.9 points per game (per ESPN’s Mike Clay).
Courtland Sutton -
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 15, 2021
4 games with Jerry Jeudy: 17.2 total fantasy points
6 games without Jeudy: 16.9 fantasy points per game
It likely won’t continue to this extent, but Sutton has been almost completely uninvolved with Jeudy healthy. It doesn’t help that the Broncos are sending three receivers out for a pass route on nearly every play (Sutton had 36 routes, Tim Patrick 35, and Jeudy 33 on 37 Teddy Bridgewater dropbacks in Week 10). Combine that with two tight ends and two running backs who are reasonably involved in the passing offense, and the fact that it’s generally a run-heavy attack when game script permits, and it makes sense that someone is going to disappoint. A bounce-back should be expected for Sutton, but Jeudy does appear to be Bridgewater’s preferred option.
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Quick Hits
This section will be used for stats I think are worth mentioning (and for which the takeaway is fairly intuitive) but aren’t important enough to write up fully. Let’s get to it:
- ESPN’s Mike Clay pointed out that Keenan Allen had 57 targets over the Chargers’ first six games, while Mike Williams had 56. A near-even split between Justin Herbert‘s top-two pass-catchers. Over the past three weeks, Allen has 35 targets and Williams has only 16.
Targets Weeks 1-6:
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 15, 2021
Keenan Allen - 57
Mike Williams - 56
Targets Weeks 8-10:
Keenan Allen - 35
Mike Williams - 16
- In two games with Eric Ebron sidelined, second-round rookie TE Pat Freiermuth ran a route on 68% and 73% of team dropbacks. With Ebron back on the field in Week 10, Freiermuth ran a route on just 61% of dropbacks. While he still managed an 18% target share, it’s not great news for fantasy purposes that he’s still ceding some work to Ebron.
Pat Freiermuth's routes rates in the last 4 games:
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 15, 2021
51% (w/ Eric Ebron)
68% (w/out Ebron)
73% (w/out Ebron)
61% (w/ Ebron)
- Dan Arnold remains a must-start option. Jacksonville’s TE1 ran 34 routes on 42 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks and led the Jaguars in targets with eight. He is one of the most underrated waiver wire pickups of the season and a legitimate top-10 option for fantasy purposes.
- With Damien Harris (concussion) sidelined, sixth-round rookie Rhamondre Stevenson dominated early-down work for the Patriots in Week 10. He had 20 carries, while J.J. Taylor notched six and Brandon Bolden had three. It’s worth pointing out that Stevenson only ran 10 routes to Bolden’s 12, suggesting the latter still is the preferred pass-catching back (which was to be expected).
- With Jonnu Smith inactive, Hunter Henry ran 23 routes on 28 Mac Jones dropbacks. He also has seven touchdowns over his past seven games. Jonnu’s return will eat into Henry’s usage, but he still looks like a solid option.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones stepped into an every-down role without Odell Beckham, leading Browns wide receivers in snaps (50 out of 59, 84.7%) and tying Jarvis Landry in routes (33 out of 38, 86.8%). DPJ has typically been a low-targets-per-routes-run player, but he’s been highly efficient on his targets, and it’s a situation worth monitoring because of that.
- Wayne Gallman led Falcons running backs in snaps in a blowout with Cordarrelle Patterson hampered by what is now being called a mild high ankle sprain. Mike Davis would be the primary beneficiary if Patterson misses time, but Gallman could mix in some too. Raw snaps don’t tell the whole story though since the Falcons were down big the entire game, potentially leading to more Gallman snaps. Patterson did practice on Tuesday, so his Week 11 status is up in the air (Atlanta plays on Thursday Night Football this week).
- D’Onta Foreman led Titans running backs in snaps and carries. He looked spry in his Tennessee debut in Week 9, but 36-year-old Adrian Peterson still got more work than him in that game. That flipped against the Saints, as Foreman got 11 carries to Peterson’s eight.
- Cole Beasley did not play in the second half, paving the way for Gabriel Davis to play on 30-of-58 snaps. Beasley’s injury status must be watched throughout the week.
- Elijah Moore scored a garbage-time touchdown (from Joe Flacco), but he’s still splitting time with Keelan Cole despite playing well over the past month. Moore had 25 routes to Cole’s 23, and each had five targets.
- Antonio Gibson had a season-high 24 carries on Sunday – against arguably the best run defense in the league in the Buccaneers. Jaret Patterson had just four carries, and J.D. McKissic had one. The split that we saw in Washington earlier this season – likely caused by Gibson’s shin injury – seems to be a thing of the past. With that being said, McKissic is still dominating passing-down snaps.
- Brandon Zylstra played 33 snaps and ran 13 routes. Terrace Marshall played 18 snaps and ran 10 routes.
- Christian McCaffrey was a workhorse in Week 10 before an injury forced him into the medical tent. CMC was limited last week (especially as a receiver) as he returned from the hamstring injury that forced him out for a month, but he ran 22 routes on 34 team dropbacks against the Cardinals. If he’s healthy, McCaffrey is the best asset in fantasy football.
- In Arizona’s first game without Chase Edmonds, James Conner played 45-of-55 snaps (81.8%), ran 20 routes on 35 team dropbacks (57.1%), notched four targets, and got 10 carries to Eno Benjamin‘s six. That’s the type of passing-game involvement Conner needs to live up to the expectations fantasy managers currently have for him with Edmonds on injured reserve.
- Aaron Jones suffered what is believed to be an MCL sprain in Week 10. Kylin Hill is out for the year, meaning A.J. Dillon is the last man standing in the Green Bay backfield. With Jones out a week or two (and the Packers’ bye in Week 13, meaning Week 14 could be the target return date if the Pack take things slow), Dillon vaults into RB1 territory after getting three-down usage post-Jones injury against the Seahawks.
- Kenneth Gainwell remains in his strict passing-downs-only role. The Memphis product played 20 snaps against the Broncos – the same number as Boston Scott – but he only had two carries to Scott’s 11 and Jordan Howard‘s 12. Gainwell did run 11 routes – more than Scott and Howard combined – but they are curiously phasing him out of the running game with Miles Sanders on injured reserve.
Thanks for reading the Week 10 edition of Strength in Numbers! Check back next week for the Week 11 version.
