San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had the NFL’s #2 most efficient first down offense in the NFL in week 1. In the first half of the game, they skewed majorly pass heavy. They passed the ball on 75% of their first downs, which ranked 3rd most pass-frequent. On these passes, Jalen Hurts was unreal:
14/15, 8.3 YPA, +0.54 EPA/att and 73% success with 2:0 TD:INT
But this team wasn’t just great in the air on first down.
Despite the game being well in control in the second half and turning more to the run, thus giving the defense predictable opportunities to stop them, they didn’t get any stops.
The Eagles gained 6.9 YPC on first down runs. They averaged +0.21 EPA/run. They recorded a 69% success rate. These marks ranked #1, #2 and #2 in the NFL.
The Eagles used this efficiency to march up and down the field, and ultimately, score touchdowns on every single red zone drive.
Philadelphia showed appropriate amounts of aggressing, going for it multiple times on fourth down in scoring territory. The didn’t convert either attempt (4th & 4 and 4th & 2) but we should expect those results to regress which would favor even more scoring in the future for this Eagles offense.
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Certainly we can blame some of the Eagles success on the Falcons terrible defense. But then what does that say about the 49ers defense, which allowed 33 points to the Lions? Yes, 16 of those points came in the fourth quarter. But look at the efficiency:
The 49ers defense allowed 4.8 YPC and -0.01 EPA/att on the ground. That ranked 5th worst in the NFL. In the first half of the game, the Lions gained a whopping 5.6 YPC on early down runs. Only a handful of NFL defenses allowed more early down rushing production. And that was to the Lions. The Eagles, which had the NFL’s #1 rushing attack in week 1, certainly should be able to take advantage of that.
And then that will open things through the air. The 49ers secondary was already shaky entering this week 1 game. And it will look worse in this matchup, as a result of losing #1 CB Jason Verrett to a season-ending ACL injury. The 49ers are desperate in the secondary, making last minute signings of Josh Norman just before week 1 and now Dre Kirkpatrick. The 49ers were a disaster in many respects last week. Their defense allowed 4.7 YPC on the ground and the Lions RBs combined to gain 121 yards and 1 TD on 21 targets. This should allow for more RB-targets to be sprinkled in successfully for the Eagles.
Critics may look at Jalen Hurts averaging only 3.7 air yards, the lowest of the season, and question why the offense didn’t trust him to throw downfield. That’s the completely wrong way to look at that metric.
The young Hurts was going up against DC Dean Pees. Pees is a blitz-heavy DC who is known for creative and confusing defensive packages. The Eagles used Hurts the opposite of the way he was used in 2020. Short, quick drops (2.16 avg time to throw vs 2.77 last year). The Falcons did blitz 14 times (36% of dropbacks) and although they hurried Hurts on 6 of them, he was only hit once due to his mobility. Against the blitz, completed 10-of-13 passes for 138 yards (10.6 YPA).
But that won’t be the case against the 49ers. The 49ers blitzed Jared Goff only 9.5% of the time, ranking 3rd least in the NFL. This has been the style of the 49ers defense for years and new DC DeMeco Ryans kept a similar approach.
There is a reason why mobile quarterbacks have had such success against the 49ers defense while they’ve run this style of defense. Without blitzing, either one of three things happens: QB sack by a 4-man rush, O-line holds up and QB has a ton of time to throw, QB is able to escape the 4-man rush to buy additional time and either run or find open men downfield. The last 4 years, mobile QBs are 17-7 vs the 49ers (71%)… all other QBs are a combined 12-28 vs the 49ers (30%). This bodes well for Hurts and his ability to impact the outcome of this game and stay productive offensively.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons offense was a disaster. Some of that surely is a credit to the Eagles defense. But some of it was on the offense and the first career game for Arthur Smith running an offense.
Matt Ryan finished with his 4th lowest aDOT of his career (5.1 yds) and had only three completions over 10 yards downfield.
Despite trailing from mid-way through the first quarter through the rest of the game, including 15-6 at halftime and 22-6 in the third quarter, the Falcons had the NFL’s #3 highest early down run rate through 3 quarters (59% run) despite runs recording just a 40% success rate, 4.3 YPA and -0.26 EPA/att.
Atlanta was the only team in the NFL last week to run the ball on over 52% of early down runs but record below 52% success. Arthur Smith must have thought he still had Derrick Henry in the backfield.
The Falcons similarly failed in the red zone multiple times, settled for short field goals, punted on too many 4th and shorts and in general, didn’t have nearly the level of aggression that is required in today’s NFL.
The 49ers have rarely had all skill position players available along with a #1 QB, and it showed last week vs the Lions defense. This team scored 5 TDs but only made two trips inside the red zone (they scored TDs on both trips).
On early downs in the first half, the 49ers called 52% runs, which was 4th highest in the NFL. But Kyle Shanahan knew exactly what he was doing and didn’t feel the need to overextend his offense. He made the passes count, with an absurd 90% success rate and 13.4 YPA. The 49ers jumped out to a 21-10 lead near the end of the half before scoring 10 more points in quick succession to lead 31-10 at halftime.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Bills offense did not look particularly good against the Steelers but that was largely due to the Steelers defense rather than glaring problems with the Bills offense.
Pittsburgh was able to generate pressure on 39% of dropbacks but blitzed Josh Allen only 2% of dropbacks. It’s exceedingly difficult to be productive with that level of pressure.
Miami doesn’t have outside pass rushers like the Steelers and they lost their best interior pass rusher Raekwon Davis just last game and he’s out.
Last year, Miami played cover 0 vs the Bills, sat back in man coverage and sent a ton of blitzes. Josh Allen and the Bills offense destroyed that defense. The strength of the Dolphins DBs does not translate to the body types of the Bills receiving corps.
New England spend a ton on TEs. Used 12 personnel on 34 offensive snaps, second most in the NFL in week 1.
However, look at these splits when passing:
From 11: 18/21, 67% success, 9.3 YPA, +0.62 EPA/att
From 12: 7/13, 42% success, 4.7 YPA, -0.68 EPA/att
Now, Miami must face the Bills.
Last 3 games Buffalo vs Miami (and keep in mind, much of the final game last year was without Josh Allen) from 11 personnel:
8.7 YPA, 59% success, +0.34 EPA/att, 8 TDs, 0 INTs
Digging in deeper, last year vs Miami, the Bills were great using 0/1 step shotgun drops from 11 personnel – and that’s where Miami struggled vs the Patriots last week:
Although Mac Jones was outstanding from all drops in 11 personnel, here was his performance in 0/1 step:
11 personnel 0/1 step: 100% success, 7.3 YPA, +0.69 EPA/att
Last year against Miami, Josh Allen’s performance by drop type in 11 personnel shotgun vs the Dolphins:
11 personnel 0/1 step: 72% success, 5.9 YPA, +0.41 EPA/att
11 personnel 3-step: 63% success, 11.3 YPA, +0.45 EPA/att
11 personnel 5-step: 60% success, 14.2 YPA, +0.89 EPA/att
Week 1 vs the Steelers, even though Josh Allen overall had a poor game, he was great on 11 personnel 0/1 step drops: 100% success, 11.9 YPA, +0.71 EPA/att on 7 dropbacks.
Lastly, the Dolphins defense vs 11 personnel passes on early downs in quarters 1-3 on the types of drops the Bills typically use, which are shotgun 0/1 step or 3-step:
0/1 step: 68% success, 9.6 YPA, +0.21 EPA
3 step: 44% success, 5.4 YPA, -0.44 EPA
Although the Dolphins defense looks strong, there absolutely has been a history of success for the Bills offense in this spot, and I expect their offense to look a lot different on Sunday than it did last week vs the Steelers.
