The holiday break is inching closer and closer to a conclusion which means it’s about that time to prep for Hawaii.
Before that, there are many season-long leagues conducting their drafts so I’ve gone through to rank the top 150 names to consider for 2023.
I’m breaking out my top 150 in chunks of 25. The first five segments are below with the final 25 being listed today.
Before we get into the final 25, I must add an amendment to part four, as one golfer slipped through the cracks when I built out my list.
56b. Harris English
Baseline Ranking: 64
1-Year Starts: 14
Notes: The Georgia Bulldog struggled through injury in 2022 but looked more like himself as the year came to an end, going 6-for-7 during the fall schedule. English grades out very similar to Gary Woodland as they both deal with injury troubles but are “make it to East Lake” types of talent when healthy and swinging their best. While English has that Top-30 upside, I would prefer to let him fall down the draft board and only consider drafting him if he slips past 50th.
Now, back to the regularly scheduled program with the final 25 names to target:
25. Alex Noren
Baseline Ranking: 25
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: He’s racked up 19 top 25s over the last two seasons with six of those doubling as top 10s. The potential downside risk comes from him being 6th on the Ryder Cup qualification list at the moment. We’ve seen him pile up 47 starts over the last two seasons but he may split time more evenly and go back to the days of posting 17 or 18-start seasons for the PGA TOUR while spending more time in Europe.
24. Brian Harman
Baseline Ranking: 24
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: The smooth-swinging lefty made it to East Lake for the second time in his career, in 2022. He kept that momentum rolling with a pair of runner-up finishes in the fall. He averages sub-295 off the tee, so he’s not going to keep up with the big dogs on every course, but the rest of his game more than makes up the difference most weeks. He’s in his mid-30s and should have another half decade of prime golf.
23. Billy Horschel
Baseline Ranking: 21
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: The Florida Gator continues to underperform in majors but he feasts on weaker fields throughout the year. Horschel has that “it” factor when it comes to contending, racking up seven career wins with 14 other podium finishes on his resume. He’s cracked the 20-start barrier in 10 straight seasons, twirled at least five top 10s in seven of those, while landing double-digit top 25s in six of those 10 campaigns. He’s a high-volume option with lots of win equity.
22. Sahith Theegala
Baseline Ranking: 45
1-Year Starts: 30
Notes: The youngster doesn’t leap off the page statistically. He was just 58th in strokes gained tee-to-green last season while ranking 118th in putting. Yet, he found himself frequently in the hunt to pick up his maiden win. More importantly, his attitude is fantastic. He’s talked openly about knowing that his game needs to be elevated to keep up with the top tier of golfers. I think the 25-year-old will continue to improve in 2023 and likely pick up his maiden win before the year is over.
21. Shane Lowry
Baseline Ranking: 13
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: The Irishman has cracked 10 top 25s in each of the last two PGA TOUR seasons with four top 10s in both of them. During that time, he’s missed just five cuts. I would expect that level of effiiency to continue but like Noren above, the amount of time split between tours remains a slight issue. Lowry has reach 20-plus starts just one time in his PGA TOUR career (2021) and even then it was only 21 starts.
20. Tommy Fleetwood
Baseline Ranking: 16
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: The Englishman has made it to East Lake twice in his career, despite playing 19 or fewer events for every year of his PGA TOUR career. Heading into the new year, five of his last seven starts came on the DP World Tour circuit, so he continues to split his time. On the bright side, one of those was a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, snapping his winless streak that went back to the same event in late 2019. If he brings that late-2022 momentum into 2023 then we could easily see another “make it to East Lake” type of season in limited starts.
19. Corey Conners
Baseline Ranking: 19
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: The Canadian brings the rare combination of decent distance and elite accuracy to the table that puts him in position to score on any type of layout. Short game remains the wildcard as he ranked 131st around-the-green and 136th putting last season. His baseline rank sits at 19th with that spotty short game so he really has top 10 upside if, and that’s a big if, he can figure out the short game or at least go on a hot streak in that department, for a month or two.
18. Max Homa
Baseline Ranking: 11
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: It’s safe to say he’s finally lived up to his amateur pedigree. Homa has five career TOUR wins and four of them have come since the start of 2021. At 17th in the OWGR, he’s safely played his way into the biggest events which increases his earning upside but also might lower his efficiency a bit.
17. Will Zalatoris
Baseline Ranking: 8
1-Year Starts: 16
Notes: He finally broke his maiden in August but had to shut it down due to injury shortly after the breakout win. He got married during his time off and is expected to return from his herniated discs at the Sentry TOC. Will he pick up right where he left off or need some time to shake off the rust? It’s hard to say but I tend to lean to the side of caution when dealing with injuries which is why he ranks outside of the top 10 for me.
16. Tom Kim
Baseline Ranking: 14
1-Year Starts: 14
Notes: What a quick ascent for the young, rising star. He was spending his time on the Asian Tour to start 2022 but carved out some playing time on the big stage through his performance at the U.S. Open and Scottish Open then cemented his status with a win at the Wyndham Championship. Kim added a ton of fans during the Presidents Cup and then validated his Wyndham win with another victory in the fall (Shriners). The 20-year-old is playing like a top-15 talent and the sky is the limit, especially if he successfully adds some distance to his skillset. The hope is that he doesn’t chase that distance too early and end up spoiling his entire game.
15. Aaron Wise
Baseline Ranking: 23
1-Year Starts: 22
Notes: If your strategy is to target the top ball-strikers, Wise should be high on your target list. He gained strokes ball-striking (off-the-tee plus approach) in 75% of his rounds last season which was seventh on TOUR putting him just below names like Rory, Rahm, JT, and Finau. His putter has been hit-or-miss for most of his career but it hit more frequently in 2022 which is why he played his way back to East Lake. He’s played in just three career WGC events and none since 2019 but those will be back on his schedule in 2023 now that he sits at 33rd in the OWGR.
14. Collin Morikawa
Baseline Ranking: 20
1-Year Starts: 20
Notes: He slowed his pace in 2022 but still posted a pair of runner-up finishes and made it to East Lake during his “down year.” His short game really fell apart last season (152nd around-the-green and 131st putting) but if he can clean that up he’ll be back as a top-tier option in all formats.
13. Cameron Young
Baseline Ranking: 28
1-Year Starts: 22
Notes: It’s amazing how fast he went from missing 13-of-28 cuts on the Korn Ferry circuit to cementing his status as one of the best drivers on the planet. His name gets routinely thrown around by other stars when it comes to being an outlier off the tee. Young posted seven podium finishes during his rookie season. It would be asking a lot to expect that same number in 2023, but it’s also likely that he lands a win or two which would make up for posting a few less podiums. His baseline rank is 28th but some of that is getting docked for his 2021 KFT stats. If we just look at last year, he grades out 15th for me. There is room for improvement as he sees more courses for the second time and builds a schedule of courses he prefers. There is also a chance of regression to 2021 levels but the upside is too exciting to ignore so I would try to draft him earlier when I can.
12. Matt Fitzpatrick
Baseline Ranking: 7
1-Year Starts: 23
Notes: The story of Fitzpatrick’s 2022 really lies in the majors. He entered the year without a single top 10 on his major championship resume but walked out with a T5 at the PGA Championship and a win at the U.S. Open. His top 25s at the Masters and The Open were nothing to sneeze at, either. The addition of driving distance really made this possible as his game is now well-rounded and able to take on all course styles. I think he actually has an advantage as he knows how to contend without distance as he did for so many years. The downside is that he’s never played more than 20 PGA TOUR events in a single season and ranked just 107th in birdie rate last season.
11. Sam Burns
Baseline Ranking: 22
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: He’s established himself as a winner with four victories since May 2021. He was 24th in distance, 26th in GIR, and 8th in birdie rate, last season. the 26-year-old is theoretically just getting started and has more peak years ahead of him.
10. Jordan Spieth
Baseline Ranking: 15
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: It felt like a disappointing season at times, but Spieth still won an event (RBC Heritage), posted a runner-up finish (AT&T Byron Nelson), and made it to East Lake. He flashed his brilliance again at the Presidents Cup and I think he’s successfully removed himself from the mid-career woes that troubled him for a few years. He was 26th in birdie rate and 21st in eagle rate last season, so his hole-by-hole scoring remains on the elite tier. It might be a roller-coaster at times, but Spieth remains a fun golfer with tier-1 upside.
9. Tony Finau
Baseline Ranking: 6
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: He won early in his career at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open but had to wait a long time before getting his second (2021 NORTHERN TRUST). Many said the floodgates would open after that second win and that finally happened this summer when he three times over a seven-start stretch. He has top-3 upside if he can maintain that late-2022 form but even if he regresses a bit, he’s a solid value pick anytime after 5th, I’d say.
8. Sungjae Im
Baseline Ranking: 12
1-Year Starts: 22
Notes: He’s played at least 26 events and made it to the TOUR Championship in all four seasons played on the PGA TOUR. He got married over the holiday break but should continue to crush it as a high-volume, high-upside talent with room to grow at just 24 years old.
7. Patrick Cantlay
Baseline Ranking: 3
1-Year Starts: 19
Notes: He’s piled up back-to-back multi-win seasons and remains relatively active with 20-plus starts in four of the last five seasons. When he first made his return from injury, I was worried he would fall in the mid- to upper-teens in terms of annual starts but he’s proven to be able to handle a bigger workload. Similar to Schauffele, the LIV rumors continue to swirl around him. I can’t say we’re officially out of the woods but he does at least appear to be hanging around the PGA TOUR for now.
6. Xander Schauffele
Baseline Ranking: 4
1-Year Starts: 19
Notes: He’s finished top 5 in the FedExCup race in five of the last six seasons. While I was a little worried about the LIV rumors that wouldn’t stop following him, he continues to deny those rumors so fire away, anytime in the first round of your drafts.
5. Viktor Hovland
Baseline Ranking: 10
1-Year Starts: 24
Notes: The 25-year-old has the tools and temperament to be a superstar but remains just below that top tier, still waiting for a true breakout season. Hovland has won one event in each of his first three seasons on TOUR while also winning two Hero World Challenges and a pair of DP World Tour events. While Cantlay and Schauffele are proven commodities, Hovland feels like he has more in the tank and could be capable of a Scheffler-like breakout season.
4. Justin Thomas
Baseline Ranking: 9
1-Year Starts: 19
Notes: He “settled” for just one win last season but made it a big one, snagging the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. He’s gone seven straight seasons with at least one win (3+ wins in three of those campaigns). Thomas is a proven winner with a work ethic that is second to none. You could take him first in your draft and I wouldn’t blink twice. His expected stats are slightly below the Rory-Rahm level but he’s proven in the past that his ceiling is just as high.
3. Scottie Scheffler
Baseline Ranking: 5
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: Scheffler and Ted Scott were an instant hit last fall and Scheffler rose to World No. 1 after a plethora of wins. His putter cooled off down the stretch but we now know what he’s capable of, and he’s still in his mid-20s.
2. Jon Rahm
Baseline Ranking: 2
1-Year Starts: 21
Notes: The Spaniard ranks 2nd in my 1-year baseline rankings but it felt like a disappointing season at times, walking away with just the Mexico Open win. We shouldn’t overlook the two wins he piled up in the fall on the DP World Tour circuit. He’s right up there with Rory as top talent in the world of golf and should continue to be drafted as such.
1. Rory McIlroy
Baseline Ranking: 1
1-Year Starts: 22
Notes: The Ulsterman was slow to find his footing after the COVID pause in 2020 but he’s found his groove again, in a big way. He won three events last season including the FedExCup title and added another victory in the fall (CJ CUP). He grades out 1st in my baseline rankings and first in the OWGR. He typically plays just 15 to 19 events on the PGA TOUR which is the only real reason to look elsewhere at the top.