So far in the Fantasy Nuggets columns I’ve barely mentioned the COVID-19 and the postponements, but it’s to a point where its hard to separate them from the fantasy aspect of the game. There have been enough postponements now and enough teams that have been temporarily shutdown at one point or another that it absolutely does influence this season statistically.
After all, right now the Vancouver Canucks have played in 16 games while the New Jersey Devils have played in nine. Buffalo has played in 10 games and won’t play again until Feb. 15 at the earliest. Meanwhile, James van Riemsdyk got off to an amazing start this season with seven goals and 18 points in 13 games, but the Flyers last played on Feb. 7 and won’t play again until Feb. 18 at the earliest because of a COVID outbreak. Meanwhile, the rest of the league moves on.
Here’s another thing to consider: Vancouver is set to play in its 18th game of 2020-21 on Saturday. New Jersey, which is again stuck at nine games, isn’t scheduled to play until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, we’ll be roughly a month deep into the season and there will be a team that’s played in half the number of games as another. It’s hard to statistically weigh players against different teams equally under those circumstances.[[ad:athena]]
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The league is doing its part to reschedule those missed games and while everything is of course subject to change during these uncertain times, it’s entirely possible that by the end of the season, every team will have played an equal of contests. However, that doesn’t mean every team will have had an equal experience.
Let’s go back to van Riemsdyk for a moment. Will having an unanticipated week-and-a-half off cool him off? Would he have done better or worse without that break? Will the Sabres benefit from their prolonged breather or will they come back rusty, playing like a team just getting into the swing of things facing teams already in midseason form? Will the further condensed schedules that some teams have to endure because they’re sitting out now cause them to run out of steam later in the season? Alternatively, will these breaks ultimately keep them fresher longer?
It’s hard to say, but one thing is apparent: These aren’t equal circumstances each team has been in. When we had the playoffs in 2020 after a long gap and in a bubble, it was an unusual, unprecedented situation, but every team was in the same boat. The reality of the situation is that not every team is in the same boat this time. Perhaps that was unavoidable, I certainly am not here to cast judgement. What I do want to emphasize though is that different teams’ experiences are going to be divergent enough that it will have an impact – arguably a difficult to gauge one – on a large number of players in a variety of ways. It’s going to make trying to use the statistical information from this season particularly challenging when everything is said-and-done and we’re looking ahead to 2021-22. Though in the short-term, that all takes a backseat to just hoping that everyone stays as healthy and safe as is possible in these difficult times.
Moving on from that heavy subject to a lighter note, on Tuesday, the Edmonton Oilers managed to win on Tuesday without either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl registering a point. It’s always encouraging to see a team manage to win on a night where their best players don’t make big contributions, but in the Oilers case that win came with an interesting and telling factoid: That was the first Oilers win since Nov. 29, 2017 without getting a point from McDavid or Draisaitl. In other words, between those two dates, the Oilers either got help from at least one of their two stars or they lost the game.
The first obvious question is: How often did both McDavid and Draisaitl go pointless over that span. After all, those are two of the best players in the league, so to hold them both off the scoresheet has got to be rare. That’s important because this might say less about the Oilers inability to win without their two big stars and more about the consistency of said stars. Well, that is certainly part of the story. Between that Nov. 29, 2017 win and Tuesday, the Oilers only had 28 games where both Draisaitl and McDavid were held pointless. That’s a noteworthy amount, but not a big number given the timetable presented. Still the Oilers 0-26-2 record over those 28 games does stand out.
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More than anything though, that stretch is noteworthy because it fits into a narrative that the Oilers are too dependent on McDavid and Draisaitl. Of course, they’re going to rely on those two. There’s no way around that. They combine for $21 million in cap space and are two of the best players in the league, so of course the Oilers depend on them. However, there’s a difference between a team that’s led by stars and a team that star players have to drag forward.
When the Pittsburgh Penguins were at their best, they counted on Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but the duo was backed up by a great team. That’s arguably even more true with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which are headlined by Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, but are so much more than those two stars. Similarly, the Chicago Blackhawks in their glory years were more than just Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, even if those two were a key feature in those three championships.
The challenge Edmonton faces is putting together a team that is good even beyond its two stars. That’s not something they had last season. The jury is still out as far as the 2020-21 campaign goes, but there have been some encouraging signs. Obviously, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being a solid player in his own right helps, but defensemen Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie each have 11 points in 15 games, which is naturally impressive, Kailer Yamamoto is continuing to develop into an offensive force and lately Jesse Puljujarvi has been chipping in too. It’s not all good news: The Oilers goaltending still leaves plenty to be desired for example, but the Oilers seem to be moving in the right direction and a win like Tuesday’s showcases that.
That said, Tuesday’s win was against the Ottawa Senators, which haven’t exactly been a tough opponent this season. Ottawa is just 2-11-1 this season and while the Oilers have done well recently, their four most recent wins have been against the Senators. Those games against Ottawa have played a big role in Edmonton bouncing back from a 3-6-0 start to their current 8-7-0 record. So are the Oilers truly doing better or just looking good by comparison? Tonight’s game against Montreal will be a good test, as will the games against Winnipeg on Monday and Wednesday.
